Could you Please hare out the name of the advisory …
I do own stocks in my portfolio which have gone down 30-50%, but i havent sold them. The business is good and I am adding more.
I have sold this stock not because it fell down more than 50%, but because of the connection to the VVIP chopper scam. I would not like to be associated to such a management, hence I sold it. It does not matter to me , if business is good or not. The management is not clean.
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Security Code : 526397 Company : ALPHAGEO
Clarification sought from Alphageo (India) Ltd
Exchange Disseminated Time 05/08/2019 20:00:19
The Exchange has sought clarification from Alphageo (India) Ltd on August 5, 2019 with reference to significant movement in price, in order to ensure that investors have latest relevant information about the company and to inform the market so that the interest of the investors is safeguarded.
The reply is awaited
Source: bse
Disclaimer: I have no idea about alphageo, but I see attraction to such companies as fatal attractions.
Reason:
One could conjure rosy picture about big order for a local major in seismic oil exploration services provider. However, there are several multi-national companies in this area, and why would alphageo services be superior to them to ensure order booking?
I am just taking random pot shot at this (because the same kind of local India company Tejas Networks - dented me 
)
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Its all about the time horizon. Stock returns are lumpy by nature. The best buys are when the market is down.
Alphageo is down because of the nature of the business. One big contract and it will rebound with gains within 10 days. Nobody can predict when that contract will awarded. Its execution skill is its moat.
I am invested and not selling.
Alphageo is again in lower circuits since 3 days. Is this related to IT raids or some other reason?
Two orders from ONGC received worth 112 Crores. Link to the announcement.
Order size is almost equal to market cap of the company.
The company is highly cyclical, and earnings are bound to be lumpy. Recently the company has moved into seismic services for other mineral exploration also. They also got a small order. One can invest here only with a very high risk appetite.
[Disclosure- Invested]
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A company with the worst investor relations.
When I queried about their order book few years back, they first told me that the CFO is busy. When I didn’t buy this alibi, they finally verbally told me that it was my decision to buy the shares, and that the company isn’t able to answer any questions beyond what is published in the numbers.
Next minute I exited the stock.
Investors beware
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In between they had a PR agency appointed as well. Valorem Advisors. Not sure, if there is anyone now. Disclosure: Invested.
Promoters holding has marginally increased to 45.22% as per Dec, 2019 filing.
Alphageo received another order from Oil India worth 128 crores. Last month also they received an order from ONGC for around 115 crores. In FY 2018 they did a topline of 431 crores with PAT of 55 Crores. Thereafter the topline and profit started decreasing. In Q2-2020, they incurred a loss of 30 crores.
Finalization of these two orders from ONGC and OIL India, it appears that the trend is changing.
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Indeed these 2 orders will help lift them financially. Trade Receivables is something that puts me off. They are more than the current MCap.
Check their Sep balance sheet. It’s around 38Cr only. They always have higher receivables in March end which gets reduced significantly by September BS.
Their cash equivalent is around their market cap. 
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@raj1968 Sorry, yeah just noticed. Its interesting that the company is available below its WC (almost). Fy 19-20, till now has not fared well for the company because of the extended monsoon and margins have taken a serious hit. Their entry into the geophysical mapping for minerals might turn out to be a game changer in a long run. Would be glad to see how they perform in next 3-4 quarters. Indian sediments are highly under-explored and mapping, interpretation of data is a concrete part of the process therefore companies like AlphaGeo will be there until they decide not to update themselves with new technologies.
@raj1968, can you give more insights on this business.
The problem with such businesses is availability of orders on a continuous basis. However, there might be some more orders coming in.
Their competitor Asian Oilfields mentioned in their conference call that around 1500Cr orders is up for grabs for seismic players in India in next 6-9 months. Most of them will come from OALP award winners. Asian has won a 570Cr order for seismic survey recently.
Disc: only small position…exited most of it much earlier.
I completely agree with you, it will be foolish to say the we can predict future cash flows of these companies and discount them back. Quality of Trade Receivables itself will cause a hurdle, let alone the inventory and Payables. Thus its better to find bargains (if available)
4th round of OALP was completed last month and ONGC bagged all the 7 block, 5th round to follow. Alpha have fared during the bad times and its tendency to provide services at certain terrains provide a competitive advantage to it. There is also a huge valuation gap between Asian and Alpha though Alpha revenues are almost 2x Asian.
Cumulative earnings before tax for Alpha for last 5 years stands out to be : 264 crs while for Asian its negative 49 crs
If few more orders started flowing in, Alpha might give cumulative earnings before tax equal to market cap in next 3-4 years.