Agri Economy - An Industry Overview

What A Worst Monsoon In Eight Years Could Mean For The Indian Economy (

Global Dark economy clouds Hover over India

India’s recent record of GDP growth may be good , but Poor Monsoon is not a good news, which could threaten our Agri economy!

one very recent article says that Two major Economies of the world -China faces Deflation where aa USA fights inflation.
China’ s export loss is Vietnam and Mexico’s gain , but not India’s.

So, Rhetoric and chest-thumping on India Growth story may get challenged.

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Mansoon update for 2023:

After 4 years we had a monsoon that was slightly below the normal. Cumulative rainfall during monsoon season 2023 was 94%(82CM)of its long period average(LPA).

Seasonal rainfall over the Northwest, Central, South peninsula and Northeast India were 101%, 100%,92% and 82% of respective LPA.

Monsoon core zone , which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country received 101% of LPA which was a good thing.

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 3 subdivisions received excess rainfall,26% subdivisions received normal rainfall and 7 subdivisions received deficient rainfall.

In addition to delayed onset of monsoon, monthly rainfall activity varied significantly across affecting agriculture activities. It was91% of LPA in June, 113% of LPA in July, 64% of LPA in August and 113% of LPA in September which is well represented in below pic.

The impact of deficient monsoon may not be significant during the current year but can affect significantly if deficient rainfall continues for next year(particularly for rural focussed microfinance companies). Already the current live storage available across the reservoirs is less than last year and less than last 10 years average. Storage status in the water reservoirs of the southern region is significantly low compared to other regions.

water levels.pdf (2.3 MB)


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Unlike pharma , it is not very common to see companies taking up off patented molecules, may by this is mostly due to small opportunity size, so investment in making a copy cat generic needs more investment. The easiest option is buy the license from the innovator with “technical know how” and produce the molecules. Anyone has any views on this ?