Affordable Robotic & Automation Ltd - Niche business

Stock Opportunities Untested - but worth a good look
62

Investor Zoom call tomorrow, after a long time:

Source: https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/43f9d425-9fc7-4d11-83a7-701a72145e8a.pdf

… the Company will be hosting investor and analyst conference call (group meet) on Tuesday, December 03, 2024 at 12:00 p.m. to 01:00 p.m. (IST) to discuss the Company’s Future plans and performance for the half year.

The call will be initiated with a brief management discussion on the Company, its product Categories, future plans and financial result for half year and future plans followed by an interactive question and answer session.

On behalf of the Company, the call will be addressed by Mr. Milind Padole, Managing Director and Mr. Rahul Padole, Director of the Company.

This meeting will be conducted online through Zoom Meeting mentioned as follows:
Launch Meeting - Zoom

Meeting ID: 885 6558 2773
Passcode: 367214

All the investors are requested to send their questions in advance to info@arapl.co.in.

Disclosure: I’ve been invested from lower levels.

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63

Is the company going to have a call…its been 2 quarters.

64

Does anyone have any idea whats up with this stock? heavy selling in the past 2 days. Is vijay kedia exiting ?

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65

What would be the tariff rates of Robotic exports from India into USA ?
Will it be exempted as it may have electronics classification?
Will it be 25% , without the additional 25% tariff since it’s a machinery involving aluminium & copper
Or it would attract 50% tarrif rate ?

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NSE Bulk Deal Data

NSE Bulk Deal Data
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67

The recent appointment of Mr. Neeraj Gupta as a Strategy & Growth Advisor doesn’t make much sense to me. His background is primarily in the transportation sector, with experience at Meru Cabs and later a travel company. I’m struggling to see how that expertise translates into value for a robotics and automation company.

If anyone has insight into how his experience could be relevant here, I’d appreciate your perspective.

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68

The promoter has sold 5 stake in the company, the price is below its right issue. See some short term pain, until they execute the said nos they committed in 2023 rights issue ppt

69

I asked a question regarding the RAAS guidance in the Arihant conference. The management sticks to their earlier guidance of $30-40M for RAAS in FY26, although their current orderbook is only $4M for RAAS. I am not able to comprehend this

70

A simple way to assess them is to look at how they’ve performed since their last set of projections. In my opinion, there’s nothing wrong with being optimistic, but projections need to be grounded in reality. Take a look at what they said in Q2-2023.

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71

This company used to trade at 300-400 pe. Almost 75% fall from there. What a wealth destroyer..lesson is alway stay away from companies giving rosy guidance.

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72

The company has posted decent quarterly results - but volume uptick isn’t there - have written to mgmt asking for guidance

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AFFORDABLE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION LIMITED ( ARAPL ) INVESTOR AND ANALYSTS CONFERENCE CALL - 31/10/2025

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74

Some thoughts after listening to the Q2 concall

Interesting developments here… Beyond the just turned around quarter financials

Firstly… The business in its current state needs lots of funds… And so the promoter sells part holding in the market, (supposedly to a group of HNIs) and funnels those funds to the company as an interest free loan(to be converted to equity at a later stage). How much influence of HNIs would exert on the decision making in times ahead, or is it the level of confidence over the times lying ahead… One will watch.

The promoter and his team extended the call beyond the customary 1 hour session, so they were keen to connect and eager to take questions… Also committed to continue quarterly concalls and not miss, as was their form in the recent past

Humro/mobile robots seem to be the silver lining here, with built in capacity of 400 Nos per year, and a deployment of just 30-40 in US so far(6-7 only for PoC deployment at potential customers sites)… Two large clients have cleared the PoC stage, and likely to drive orders in the next FY. This is the key trigger to monitor, for this to emerge as a turnaround story (just one qtr is not evidence enough).

New to the company, so trying to develop my understanding here. The inputs of earlier contributors do give a heads up but wondering if…at close to all time low, is there value here or just a promise for growth and fund burn?

Thoughts of other contributors, on whether there is something changing here, would be really appreciated.

Disclosure… Tracking position.

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75

Declining Sales, Rising Debt and heightened receivables are matter of concern for me.

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76

I just have to say I’m appalled by the level of questions analysts ask on calls. Today was the affordable robotics call, and not one analyst has questioned the management on the contours of the HUMRO deal that they just did. At such a low valuation HUMRO has raised funds and the parent will no longer have any control of the HUMRO subsidiary post this fundraise + on top of that HUMRO numbers won’t get consolidated anymore. This fund raise is bad for minority shareholders. Big promoter red flag.

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All the hype and everything that led the stock to touch 900 and all those exaggerated guidance by management ,will be in vain if consolidated numbers does not count .
are you sure rev pat etc will not consolidate after this fund raise ??

78

I concur with you about type of questions asked by analysts on the concall. I have been on numerous calls where no one asked the most important questions like - related party transactions, recent exits of top leaders or promoter stake sale etc. They are most interested in mundane details like sales breakup by product, by region, by category and its margins etc etc. It seems they attend the concall to fill in the blanks in their excel speadsheet about the past. The responsibility of asking uncomfortable questions is on retail investors as its our money at stake

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79

Have to be careful about management in this company. I’m convinced that management is against minority investors.

81

ARAPL RaaS (Humro) valuation and ARAPL ( Affordable Robotic and Automation Limited ) holding 40–45% after dilution, what realistic market price could the ARAPL stock trade at?

** This post is nothing but a gadanken experiment (thought experiment) **

ARAPL RaaS (Humro) Valuation

Assumptions:

Fx: 1 USD = 90

ARAPL Mcap~200 crore

ARAPL shares outstanding ~1.2 crore

ARAPL stake in ARAPL RaaS (Humro)~ 40%

Valuations of Competitors/ peer in USD

Seegrid ~300m USD

Vecna ~ 400m USD

Balyo ~ 100m USD

Geek+ ~ 3b USD

Competitor Valuation Vs ARAPL RaaS (Humro)

Simple unweighted average valuations of competitors/peers

(300+400+100+3000)/4 = 950m USD

Here Geek+ is an outlier thus consider the average valuations of

(Seegrid + Vecna + Balyo)/3 = 266m USD

Average Valuation of ARAPL RaaS (Humro) = 266m USD

In INR terms

Average Valuation of ARAPL RaaS (Humro) ~2400 crore

Value of ARAPL’s stake in ARAPL RaaS (Humro)

Considering 40% stake in ARAPL Raas = 2400*0.40 = 960 crore INR

Per share value of ARAPL from 40% stake in ARAPL RaaS (Humro) = 960/1.20 = 800INR

Realistic Market price Range of ARAPL

Applying holding company discount (30%) on ARAPL’s stake in ARAPL RaaS = 800*0.70 = 560 INR

Adding legacy value at a discount of 30% on current Market Cap of 200 crore INR = (200*0.70)/1.20 ~ 116 INR per Share

A plausible expected Market price of ARAPL per share = 560 + 116 = 676 INR

  • Disclaimer

  1. Invested

  2. I am not a finance professional, just a physicist.

  3. Not an investment advice, its a thought experiment based on first principles

82

your math is valid, but who is to say that the promoter doesn’t dilute stake more? there is going to be a lot of more fundraising needed and the promoter is clear that they don’t want minority investors to participate in this opportunity. hence your 40% stake assumption may not be valid