Aegis Logistic-In a sweet spot

Purchase of shares from open market by Promoters

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Open market purchase of shares by Promoters is now about Rs 26 Crores

Disc: Invested

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Contingent on the company unlocking synergies with Vopak, and getting back to quarterly revenue in the 1500cr+ range, I do think there’s a buying opportunity present with the scrip.

I also drafted a note for a friend who entered the stock in the mid 300s, and he wanted a second opinion. Please see attached.

2021-11 Aegis Logistics Notes.pdf (432.4 KB)

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One major concern for the long term would be the potential growth of LPG in India. Since alternate forms of propulsion is taking over the automobile sector, auto lpg growth would be stagnant or depleting in the future.
So the main avenue of growth would still remain the domestic lpg sector. but this again is being threatened by the piped CNG connections which is being planned in the urban areas.

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There are rumours of Adani(competitor) picking BPCL(key customer). Could that be the reason for the recent fall in Aegis?

Market anticipation that future business from BPCL may dry off post sale to Adani?

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Wait, I know of Adani Logistics and such but why would Adani take a share of BPCL? Or is it some subsidiary of BPCL? A couple of known things are; BPCL is targetted for disinvestment by GOI. And it has multiple refineries, gas networks and own petrol stations etc. Which one is Adani planning to take up?

India Ratings Affirms Aegis Logistics at ‘IND AA’; Outlook Positive

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IOC is doing a capex of ~9000 crore for setting up the pipeline for crude oil From Mundra to panipat

@desaidhwanil, do you think on future basis this can impact on aegis terminal business in terms of throughput or with aggressive capex announced by Aegis, how would this picture can turn into. Bit confused about the clarity for future in terms of how business will going to form.

Disclosure - Not invested ,Just posting to understand the business and it’s probabilities moving ahead.

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Any impact of Russian -ukraine conflict on Aegis logistics?
Price doesn’t seem to recover.

The import data for LPG for Jan 2022 got published a few days back on the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell website here. Some important data points:

Jan-22 (MT) Dec-21 (MT) MOM change Jan-21 (MT) YOY change
1394 1657 -16% 1363 2%
Apr 21 - Jan 22 (MT) Apr 20 - Jan 21 (MT) %change
14425 13600 6%

As can be seen, there has been a month-on-month decline of 16%. However, it’s up 2% YOY and 6% on a 10 month basis. Historical data can be downloaded from here

Not sure if the ~20% drop in Aegis’ market cap in the last few days is a reaction to the month-on-month decline in imports. There definitely has been some selling pressure and it continued even the day after the Ukraine war crash when most of the quality names bounced back.
One thing I have learnt from @hitesh2710 , @vivek_mashrani and @suru27 is to respect the charts. The charts, in most cases, start telling a story before the actual event.
Will be keenly watching for bounce backs, if any.

Disclosure: Invested

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Where can I navigate to find the download link form the data you shared. Im looking to track this month on month in the future

You can find the links here:

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India’s LPG import numbers for Feb 2022 are out. Here are the data points:

Feb-22 (MT) Jan-22 (MT) MOM change Feb-21 (MT) YOY change
1256 1394 -10% 1521 -17%
Apr 21 - Feb 22 (MT) Apr 20 - Feb 21 (MT) % Change
15681 15121 4%

There has been a decline in India’s LPG imports both MOM and YOY. However, on a 11 month basis, there is a 4% increase.

It appears that for the full year, LPG imports will be flattish. Assuming a constant market share for Aegis, their LPG terminalling revenues should be flattish as well. Potential revenue upsides may only come from their LPG “sourcing” business with increase in LPG prices, better liquid terminalling volumes and better volumes in retail business (Auto-LPG and bottling) due to post-covid reopening.

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With increasing prices believe making households shift to LPG would be becoming tough… similarly industries adoption may also be loosing pace… That probably explains the fall in imports…
I think till the war is not resolved and crude and related prices dont cool off , imports may continue to remain sluggish…

Reliance Industries: RIL fuel retailers fear replay of 2008 as outlets run dry - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)

There is no correlation between terminalling volume and LPG imports. They are two separate businesses and import does not guarantee terminalling and terminalling doesn’t guarantee imports.

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Thanks for your reply @rupeshtatiya .
I would just like to clarify that the LPG import data shared in the table is of the entire LPG imported into the country and not just by Aegis.
In that context, isn’t the LPG terminalling volumes for Aegis directly correlated to the volume of LPG imported into the country ? I believe these LPG terminals are in ports like Kandla, Haldia and Pipavav which are primary used for LPG imports. Or is that understanding incorrect ?

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India’s LPG import numbers for March 2022 from Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell website:

Mar-22 (MT) Feb-22 (MT) MOM change Mar-21 (MT) YOY change
1445 1256 15% 1355 6.6%
Apr 21 - Mar 22 (MT) Apr 20 - Mar 21 (MT) % Change
17125 16476 3.9%

For March-22, there has been a 15% increase MOM and 6.6% YOY.
On a full year basis, there has been a 3.9% increase in total LPG import volumes.

A flattish year overall from the perspective of LPG import volumes.

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The only problem I have is most of their facilities have gone to JV with Vopak

How much profitability will come to Aegis alone, I am not able to figure out. Probably mkt also is undecided.

However, JV expansion is going to be in global scale with ability to handle new, difficult to handle gases. - 3-5 years down the line, this should be one of the great growth stories

Its own past expansions have been quite remarkable, although at a lower scale

Disc: Invested

Aegis share: Multibagger in making: Nomura says this logistic stock may double in 12 months! - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)

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Refining & petrochemicals sector to attract $30 billion in investments over next 8 years: Rajesh Kamath, CEO & MD Thyssenkrupp, Auto News, ET Auto (indiatimes.com)

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