Reasons behind downside in the last 7 months :-
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Change in Government Policy by DGFT :- The margins for soybean oil were put under more strain because there was no Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) for FY2023–34.
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Higher Inflation :- The increase in inflation resulted in higher costs for packaging, logistics, chemicals, power, and fuel, which had an impact on EBITDA.
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Interest Expenses :- Interest costs increased as a result of the rise in benchmark interest rates.
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Wholly Owned Subsidiary Losses :- Price limitations on edible oils, problems with the currency, and a lack of counterparties for FX hedging caused losses to Adani Wilmar’s Bangladeshi subsidiary of Rs. 12 crores in Q4 and Rs. 63 crores in FY23.
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Edible Oil Price Volatility :- Due to the company’s risk management procedures, the ongoing fall in the price of edible oil resulted in high-cost inventories and an MTM impact on P&L.
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Muted Demand :- Demand from institutional purchasers, the bread and frying industries, and the edible oil market decreased.
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Softening of Edible Oil Prices :- The reduction in edible oil prices had an effect on revenue, raising the cost of inventory and reducing margins.
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Do you feel there has been any change in the factors mentioned by you in these 2 months…
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TA view, After this final move (Around 328-310 possibly) and once volumes settle, I am expecting it to move towards 530 or so.
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"In a strategic move to expand its footprint in the speciality chemical industry, Adani Wilmar Limited has announced the acquisition of a 67% stake in Omkar Chemical Industries Private Limited (OCIPL), a Gujarat-based speciality chemicals company.
What Happened: The acquisition was announced on Thursday evening. Adani Wilmar has signed a share subscription and share purchase agreement with OCIPL. This move aligns with Adani Wilmar’s strategy to intensify its presence in the speciality chemical industry.
Omkar Chemicals operates a manufacturing plant in Panoli, Gujarat with an annual capacity of around 20,000 MT of surfactants and is further adding capacity for other products as well, the Adani Group company said in a press release. The entrepreneurs promoting Omkar Chemicals bring over 15 years of experience in the speciality chemicals manufacturing industry The company’s turnover for the year 2023-24 was ₹13.95 crore."
Adani Wilmar Diversifies Portfolio With Majority Stake Acquisition In Speciality Chemicals Company - Benzinga
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adani wilmar share price: Adani, Wilmar are said to weigh selling $670 million stake in JV - The Economic Times The owners are exploring selling equal stakes that may total 13% in Mumbai-listed Adani Wilmar, said the people, asking not to be identified as the information is confidential. A sale that size would be valued at roughly $670 million as of Tuesday, and could take place as early as the coming months, the people said.
Looks like AWL has another 6 months to show 75% SH. Paring their stake (adani & wilmar) must needed now. Market is not happy with this overhang and also the fundamentals which is poor margins. Fortune and Kohinoor are the good brand but the OPM is less than 2%.
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Adani Wilmar Q1 FY25 Analysis: Key takeaways!!
Adani Wilmar reported strong Q1 FY25 results with 12% year-on-year volume growth and significant improvement in profitability. The company’s edible oil segment performed exceptionally well, crossing 1 million tonnes in quarterly volumes for the first time. The food and FMCG segment continued its impressive growth trajectory, with revenues reaching ₹1,500 crore. Management expects this momentum to continue, targeting 30-40% year-on-year growth for the next three years in the food segment.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Expanding rural distribution: Targeting 50,000 rural towns by March 2025, up from current 30,000.
- Premiumization: Launching premium products like “Pehli Dhaar” first press mustard oil and expanding the “Expert” range of functional oils.
- B2B focus: Developing specialized flour products for industrial customers.
- Capacity expansion: New integrated food park in Gohana to boost rice processing capabilities.
- Strengthening HoReCa channel: Expanded to 48 towns, targeting 100+ large towns.
Trends and Themes:
- Stable edible oil prices benefiting branded players
- Increasing demand for premium and functional food products
- Growing importance of alternative distribution channels (e-commerce, quick commerce)
- Rising rural consumption
Industry Tailwinds:
- Expected good monsoon boosting rural demand
- Government initiatives to increase rural productivity and employment
- Upcoming festive and wedding seasons driving consumption
Industry Headwinds:
- Intense competition from regional players in food segment
- Potential volatility in commodity prices
- Currency fluctuations in international markets (e.g., Bangladesh)
Analyst Concerns and Management Response:
- Concern: Lower profitability in food segment
Response: Intentional investment in distribution and marketing to drive growth
- Concern: Bangladesh operations losses
Response: Situation improving with stabilizing currency and new government policies
Competitive Landscape:
- Edible Oils: Adani Wilmar maintaining market leadership with 19% share
- Wheat Flour: Gaining market share, now at 5.9%
- Rice: Facing strong competition from established players, currently at 8% market share
Guidance and Outlook:
Management expects to maintain the current performance levels, anticipating strong demand during the festive season. They aim to close FY25 with 1.25 million tonnes in the food and FMCG basket.
Capital Allocation Strategy:
- Investing in distribution infrastructure and marketing for food segment
- Expanding processing capacities (e.g., Gohana plant)
- Exploring opportunities in value-added segments like oleochemicals and castor derivatives
Opportunities & Risks:
Opportunities:
- Expansion in premium product categories
- Growing export markets for branded products
- Potential for market share gains in fragmented food segments
Risks:
- Commodity price volatility
- Increased competition from local and regional players
- Regulatory changes affecting edible oil imports or pricing
Regulatory Environment:
- Government restrictions on white rice exports impacting the rice business
- Potential changes in import duties on edible oils
Customer Sentiment:
Management noted steady and improving demand for branded and food products. Rural markets show signs of recovery, with expectations of stronger growth from October onwards.
Top 3 Takeaways:
- Strong performance in edible oils segment with 12% volume growth and market share gains
- Continued rapid expansion of food and FMCG business, growing at 30%+ year-on-year
- Strategic focus on distribution expansion, premiumization, and value-added products to drive future growth
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Small position in family portfolio from IPO so I decided to take a quick look
- Revenue grown from 13,558 cr to 14,460 cr from Q2FY22 to Q2FY25. Only 6.65% growth in 3 years.
- PAT grown from 182 cr to 311 cr from Q2FY22 to Q2FY25. 41% growth in 3 years, not bad. However PAT is all over the place, 5 out of 12 quarters after Q2FY22 have PAT less than 182cr, two are negative PAT.
- EPS was 2.41 and 2.39 in first two Quarters of FY25. Assuming similar trend for remaining quarters, we get an EPS of 9.6 for FY25 which gives a forward PE ratio of ~33 at today’s stock price (316)
To approach value territory, forward PE ratio should fall to around 15-16 which happens only if stock is halved or EPS is doubled. Extremely skeptical either will happen.
If anyone has any counterfactual arguments, would love to hear them 
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Adani to exit Adani Wilmar.
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