A tale of 3 companies - TCS vs Infy vs HCL Tech

IT industry has consistently faced some headwinds, but it has come on top of it every time so far in last 20 years.

In 2000, analysts were saying that IT company will loose due to no Y2K revenue going forward. Although IT company overall faced some troubles due to Y2K and dot-com bubble, the whole IT industry (I am generalising) came up really well.

Then in 2003-04, there was a scare that Chinese were going to take many IT job, which led many leading IT companies to set up shop in China. That scare did never materialise.

Then 2007-08, IT industry not only thrived but increased the market share.

There was a time when Indian IT companies could be looked upon to do Development and Support only. Slowly the addressable market for IT companies has increased tremendously to BPO, Consulting, Infrastructure management, product development, KPO to name few.

The current headwinds which IT industry is facing is not new. Historically, H1B visa scare crop up its head for every US election. It may affect some companies to an extent, but overall it has a potential for more offshore work, as US companies would prefer to do work offshore than to get people from Indian IT Company.

People are citing that AI, Automation, Clouds will affect the industry, which is a fair assessment. But companies will still need an army of developers to perform these task for them. By the time this task will complete (after 4/5 years), some new technology will come and Companies will chase new technology. It has happened so many time in last 20 year and I can see it likely to continue.

Coming back to Financials- The lowest ROCE is 30% for HCL Tech. That is a significantly higher ROCE for any company (across the different industries).

Although their growth has slowed down from around 15% to 8-10, I think they can go grow at this rate for quite a few years. And a lot of these companies is having a reasonable PE (around 15 for HCL Tech plus 2.5% dividend yield). In Indian Market, there are not many companies generating 30% ROCE and available at such a compelling valuation with a reasonable certainty of high single digit growth.

Overall, I do not think they will multiply from here, but they have a potential to give decent return from here.

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