Watch the next 10 mins. Top fund managers including the big bull is disillusioned about India, on the back-drop of non-functioning parliament. And everyone was being bearsih all along.
The surprise to me is, it turns out, that accurately happens to be the market bottom.
Some of the very valid points being made in the panel are, with this scenario, valuations are also stretched with a 30-40% premium to other emerging markets. Can the seniors who has been through these times comment, about the perceived “premium” valuations?
Other quotes that turned out to be dead wrong:
“I for one feel blue-chips or ITC cannot lead the bull market any more. It has to be the beaten down names. ITC PEs can’t expand any further. You can get 15% stock price growth with 15% earnings growth, but you can’t expect it to double in the next 2 years.” -Rakesh Jhunjunwala
… Which is precisely what happened. Would really like some commentary by market participants who were around at that time.
haha, good find. So many books and so many rational thinkers repeatedly remind us that experts are clueless at predictions and this is another good proof of that.
Templeton said that one should invest at"points of maximum pessimism." and if you see that video every singleperson is pessimistic. If you had the courage you’d have invested and you’d have gained a lot.
While looking at the current scenario, I feelthere are 2 specific cases where we might be at the points of maximum pessimism:
1). Oil prices -everyone seems pessimistic about oil prices. For instance Selan has dropped from nearly 680 to nearly 220, i.e. available for a third of it’s max price. But betting on it is betting on oil prices and that also seems speculative.
2). Emerging countries except India. Russia, Brazil are hitting or are close to multi year lows. HSBC does offer a Brazil index fund in India. If you wanna play ultra-contrarian, start a SIP!