I am starting this topic to get a view across other sectors about layoffs happening that may hint at a recession.
I am working in the Oil Industry and have got various feedback from my vendors about layoffs happening in their MNC companies infrastructure division eg. GE, L & T. the scale and fear of layoffs is too high right now. The main reason being given is the lack of new projects coming in.
Can others post about any such news from their workplace or their sectors?
A perspective from banking:
I work in a bank and it has been hiring aggressively for the last 2 years. One can safely assume that this trend exists in many private sector banks as many of my colleagues have switched their jobs and have got better pay packages on other private banks. There are many from other banks who have come over to mine for better pay and perks.
Looking at this one can safely assume that the private sector banks are indeed doing very well or their managements are expecting much better performance and demand for credit in future.
do you really think this topic deserves a new thread?
Thanks Shriraj Sir for the feedback. I think that there is chain of events such as slow down in the spending as there has been a lot of investment in the past 3 years (at least by OMC) Now there is a trend of reduced spending which in turn is affecting projects taken by big vendors which in turn starts affecting small sub vendors. This is causing layoffs. Which will decrease money spending in the economy. I think banks will be the last to be affected and effects won’t be immediate.
My idea was to take advantage of the network available here at VP to gain a wider perspective on the matter.
Mods are free to delete this topic if they deem it to be unnecessary.
Can you please put forward your logic how layoffs in one industry could lead to recession?
I work in offshore oil and gas industry. Stock price of most of the offshore company is plunged by 80-90% and companies are filing bankruptcy every week. There is massive layoff everywhere. Most of the countries which depend on oil and gas are either in recession or will be in recession soon if price remains under $50. Countries like Singapore and Korea which is in offshore construction business is also started feeling the heat.
For time being low price is good for India, number of people involve in oil and gas industry is significantly small to have any broad impact on economy.
Sumit Sir,
The pupose was not to correlate layofffs in one industry to recesssion but to find out if this is cross sector slowdown in spending.
Would love to hear your input from your industry.
Regards,
Alphin
Most of the Middle East countries and some African nations depend on their OIL income and fund their infrastructure projects, pay freebies and benefits to cetizens through this. So their income become less than half in the last 2 years and it is effecting their economies and if it continues, certainly these countries will have to change their plans and layoffs happening and will lead to recession.
I was doing some research on the matter. attaching two links which will summarize the content.
Also found some news ( though not sure ) about, Middle east companies are deliberately lowering the oil prices so that the latest disruptive technology i.e “fracking” for exploration of shale ( natural gas ) is not commercially viable to US based companies.
details of the Bankruptcy here : http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/20-Months-90-Bankruptcies-In-North-American-Oil-Gas.html
report attached here
report mentioned above on this link in pdf, Cant upload pdf. http://m.haynesboone.com/news-and-events/news/publications/2016/01/31/energy-bankruptcy-monitors-and-surveys
detailed analysis ( very interesting interactive graph ) of the oil price crisis including price war between Middle east and US here . http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/09/30/business/how-the-us-and-opec-drive-oil-prices.html?action=click&contentCollection=Energy%20%26%20Environment%20®ion=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&moduleDetail=undefined&pgtype=Multimedia
Great! so now can you guys please build a bunker to hide if we are heading to recession? I am simply amazed. We poor Indians are celebrating low oil prices. If you are genuinely worried about your jobs in oil and Gas industry, invest one year’s salary in India OMCs as hedges. Not saying recession won’t come but nobody became rich by watching macros.
Ironic you should mention about job security , I myself am employed in so mentioned OMC ;-).
