VSt Tillers and Tractors limited


(ringa) #101

The Feb tractor sales data for VST is not at all encouraging. VST sold 455 tractors which is down 22% m-o-m and down 25% y-o-y. They sold around 850 tractors in March’13. So Mar’13 is a very high base number. VST reporting y-o-y growth in Tractor volumes in Q4 looks very difficult. The source is Crisil data.

disc.invested


(Ankit Gupta) #102

Hi Ringa,

Can you send me the link of the report?

Thanks


(JatinK) #103

Do you mind sharing the link to this data?


(ringa) #104

One of my friends who works with MNC brokerage firm has the access to Crisil database. Its a paid database.

Do you mind sharing the link to this data?

March’13.


(Rohit Kotewale) #105

Gujarat & Maharashtra account for 80% of tractor sales for VST. Mahashtra has been severly hit by hailstrom destroying the standing crop which will affect purchase for next season. This might be one reason for the degrowth in tractor segment.


(shak) #106

is it a buy at current price?


(Sagar Saxena) #107

There was an article in BS,about VSTT.The article very clearly mentions ‘…the company which did a revenue of 620cr. in FY14…’ Thanks to this goofup,I calculated roughly,the full year nos. for VSTT(extrapolating the same PAT margins as that in Q3) It comes out to a Q4 PAT of 21-22cr.This gives a full year EPS of 92-93,i.e.,a 60% PAT growth for FY14.
Possibly factoring this,the stock has already tripled in the past 1 year.Still,given the Hosur plant & the past track record of the company,markets may like to pay a higher multiple(e.g.: look at the re-rating in Swaraj Engines over the past 1 year…earnings growth has been 25%,but the stock has returned 60%+.VSTT too,is a similar story in many respects) Thus,the immediate target works to be Rs.1300+.Though,there maybe some consolidation in the short-term & the next big move may come only after/around Q1FY15.


(Prasanna Sankaranarayanan) #108

@Sagar: Can you link me to the article?

Thanks


(Piyush) #109

@ Prasanna,

Here is the link you are looking for.

Thanks


(Prasanna Sankaranarayanan) #110

Thanks for sharing the link Piyush. The results are splendid indeed - though it might have been priced in to the stock.


(Prasanna Sankaranarayanan) #111

@Seniors: Can you provide your thoughts on how El Nino might impact FY15 of VSTT? The Tillers segment provided majority of the revenue in FY13 as per Annual Report. Wouldn’t just the uncertainty of a good monsoon erode sales?

Thanks,

-Prasanna


(ringa) #112

the march tractor sales data is out.

in q4’14, vst tractor sales is 1855 tractors, q3’14 they sold 2116 tractors and in q4’13 it was 1891. so tractor sales is diwn 12% qoq nd 2% yoy. looks like the performace would be subdued in q4.


(Sunil) #113

Ringa,

What is the source of these figures?


(ringa) #114

hi sunil, the source of the data is crisil


(shak) #115

The tractor sales for june13,sept13,dec13, stands at 1726,1647,2172…respect…Tillers ales for the same qtrs. stands at 6802,6947,6427…even though the sales of tractors during sept qtr had been subdued w.r.t to june , the PATS were not affected on the balance sheet. I feel the PATS this qtrcould be on the same line w.r.t to last qtr. My 2 cents.


(shak) #116

If they manage to achieve these targets, vst tillers could be quoting in the range of 2000-2500 …with a p/e rerating.


(shak) #117

Friends , an important article published on autocar professional on may 14 , 2014:

vsttl, has managed to sell 7400 tractors in 2013-2014, and 27000 tillers in 2013-2014, 620 crs sales turnover in 2013-2014,BCS Iyengar has launched first 4WD 22HP MINI TRACTOR,christened http://www.autocarpro.in/ap/news-national/5600/vst-begins-production-4wd-mini-tractor-hosur-plant Link: http://www.autocarpro.in/ap/news-national/5600/vst-begins-production-4wd-mini-tractor-hosur-plant … as VSTMITSUBISHI SHAKTI VT 224…manufacturing for the same started at Hosur plant. TARGET FOR NEXT TWO YEAR TO CROSS 1000CR MARK.


(Rohit Kotewale) #118

According to the article that Shak has posted, VST has reported sales of 620 cr. On a NPM of 12.5% , its translates to a PAT of 77.5 cr and an EPS of 92.

Even if we see the NPM for last 3 quarters, they are in the range of 12-13%. Why have the NPM jumped by 2% as compared to last 3-4 yrs? Is it due to operating leverage or due to higher realization on 22HP tractors?

So on an FY15 basis if the manage to report targeted 1000 cr turnover, we are looking at a PAT of around 130 cr and EPS of around 150. Applying a P/E of 12 shows an upside of 80% in 1 yr. Views invited


(Rohit Kotewale) #119

Sorry for the mistake. Crossing 1000 cr turnover is a target for nxt 2 yrs. So Fy16 EPS should be above 150


(Dhiraj Dave) #120

Great Numbers from VST Tiller. Dividend announced Rs 15 per share as compared with Rs 9 last year

Rs Cr Q4FY14 Q4FY13 % Change FY14 FY13 % Change Col 8 Col 9
Sales 161.97 140.57 15% 624 482 30%
PAT 24.92 15.09 65% 83 49 71%
EPS 28.85 17.46 96 56.2