Vivek Gautam Portfolio


(Vivek Gautam) #203

Both REC & PFC are from same sector under same owner & same dynamic power minister Piyush Goyal. REC has run up sharply vs PFC . Both are still cheap & I am invested in both though REC since July 16 & PFC recently due to valuation mismatch .

I had applied in recently closed CPSE ETF & after availing retail discount n expected rise in NAVs in various family members name will sell in April. I had bought in advance on CPSE listing day equivalent amount of PFC one of the better & cheaper constituent amongst 10 stocks of CPSE keeping juicy dividend of 5 Rs with record date of 1 April in mind.The same strategy i adopted with earlier CPSE when i converted that in to REC

REC loan book is more diversified viz PFC which is more into generation.REC also has access to low cost Tax gain exemption bonds which improves its margin.

More importantly imho Rajiv Sharma who was MD for 5 years at REC & a power sector specialist having started his career in CEA then moved to PFC REC & is now again MD PFC. Rajiv Sharma has a great reputation and work ethics & popularity amongst employees vs Ex MDs of PFC. Good part is now that he has been appointed MD of PFC till 2020. So PFC future looks bright .

There is great change for better happening in Indian power sector under Piyush Goyal with debt burden moving to respective state govt balance sheet from DISCOMs under Uday scheme .Now the govt is concerned of the huge debt burden & will take necessary reform measure by cutting down T&D losses,go in for smart metering & other measure under IPDS under PFC ,DDUJ involving separation of agricultural & domestic feeders in rural india under supervision of REC,more collection of power bills happening through franchise route like in rajasthan recently in addition to other states.

Pvt sector plants getting abundant coal availability thanks to a resurgent Coal India & special E Auction,availability of subsidized imported Gas and commissioning one by one and able to service loans.Indias power consumption shud also slowly increase


(sushilkc) #204

Thanks a Lot Vivek for sharing your thought process in detail.


(Vivek Gautam) #205

(Vivek Gautam) #206

I bought Shankara building today in pre open @555.05 with 2 year POV.

Bet is on first gen entrp IIM passout with growth mindset,increasing focus on retail space where its has launched its own brands,GST beneficiary,good opp size.


(hiten) #207

Hi Vivek,

I agree with your assessment of the opportunity size for Shankara, GST etc…

However IMHO, the IIM pedigree should be ignored. Look what happened with Educomp, Subikhsha etc…

The market will re-rate this further only based on the performance of next 2-3 quarters.

-Hiten


(Vivek Gautam) #209

but there are genuine IIM guys also . List is too long for these sort of professionals.We need to do our homework to separate the wheat from chaff as its the most critical aspect of investing.90% bet is on mgmt for me n rest on sector n ROCE.


(anusha007) #210

Hi Vivek,

What is your view on Sheela foam over longer term ? Price is nicely consolidating. With a strong brand, GST, urbanization , clean balance sheet it looks set for a 15 to 20 percent CAGR increase in top line for next 4 to 5 years. From channel checks it also is seen that company has enhanced it’s product line with adopting relevant technology and introducing new products regularly.


(Vivek Gautam) #211

Story remains intact in Sheela Foam as

its expected to be big GST beneficiary,rupee hardening,opp size constantly increasing,RM price softening as big ARAMCO plant coming up,SFL is no 1 in sector n and sector itself is increasing.

This on top of IITian v ethical promoter with superb execution.


(Vivek Gautam) #212

REC touches 196 n PFC 160 on top of handsome dividends.Shankara gave good buying opp at 555 in pre open and is now 770.


(Shashi) #213

Sir, Great conviction.


(Vivek Gautam) #214

Bought some DCB bank betting mainly on its CEO Murali Natarajan.Even chairman of DCB Nasser Munjee is a reputed professional ex HDFC & IDFC. DCB has been able to reduce its NPAs hugely and is now focussed on retail & SME with NIM of 3.9%

Mr. Natrajan served as the Global Head for SME banking in Standard Chartered Bank. He was responsible for providing strategic context and business development capabilities to drive a distinctive and consistent business model across 27 markets in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Mr. Natrajan joined Standard Chartered Bank, India to head the Mortgage & Auto Business. In November 2004, he was promoted as Head of Consumer Banking for India & Nepal overseeing business that include Mortgages, Wealth Management, Branches, ATMs, Credit Cards, Personal Loans and SME.

A Fellow Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India, Mr Natrajan started his career with American Express TRS in India where he worked for 5 years in Business Planning, Finance and Operations. In 1989, he joined Citibank where he spent 14 years in various disciplines such as Operations, Credit, Finance, Product Management and Business Management of Consumer Banking. Prior to joining Standard Chartered Bank in October 2002, he had successful stints as Cards Business Director in Citibank India, Hong Kong and Indonesia.

Valuation looks also OK at 5000 Crore mkt cap 2.25 PBV fy 18. Roe Set to improve as major expansion done & QIP also in offing,

Have also bought earlier recently PFC Shankara Building Sintex


(Vivek Gautam) #215

https://www.edelweiss.in/research/stock-specific-reports-1/Dilip-Buildcon-Ltd---The-Transition-From-Sub-contractor-to-Marquee-EPC-Play-c31c21


#216

Hi Vivek,

If you dont mind can you disclose your present protfolio ? Thanks!


(Vivek Gautam) #217

Sheela foam touches 1270 vs IPO price of 775 & listing price of 860(Pre open price).MRSS crossed 300 recently vs FPO price of 114 & listing price of 140 .

Both these IPOs came in Dec 16 & were firm allotment of 2 lacs Rs & 1.4 lac Rs in retail category.I continue to hold on to them & Shankara Building which got listed @ 555 & I bought.

Yet another example of one making good money in buying good quality IPOs even on listing.


(Rakesh ) #218

Completely agree Vivekji,

All the recent IPOs Sheela, shankara, Dmart ( though costly), pnb housing continue to do well.

This shows good businesses though looked fairly priced at ipo price also do well.

Thanks


(chets) #219

@Vivek_6954 Planning to apply for S Chand? It looks expensive as compared to Navneet.


(Vivek Gautam) #220

I am thinking of skipping it


(Mute Spectator.) #221

Overvalued with no quality … i have ruined my schooling reading these books.


(Mridul) #222

HUDCO is extremely overvalued as well…


#223

I remember Basant Mahewshwari’s quote: ‘’ Bear Market IPOs give the best multibaggers’’ . In this bull market almost all IPOs are aggressively priced, even the not so good performers.