I just read in a post above that vakrangee margin was 0.5%. 0.5% of Rs40,000Cr is only 200cr. And I think no one will give Rs4,000cr to someone who collects Rs40,000cr which is 10%!
The whole conversation for last 2 weeks can be summerized in one famous saying “If it looks like a rat, smells like a rat and sounds like a rat, is it still a rat?”. Well, maybe not.
But should I invest my hard earned money in such a stock when I have so many choices, my answer is never! If somebody wants to work on the small probability (of this company being genuine) and take a bet, I wish them luck!
Disclosure - not invested, not interested at all
20 Likes
There are many good companies in the market then why to single on one company and risk your investment.
Great points made by @zygo23554. Key takeaway from his comments is to remain objective when assessing your companies. I see a lot of impassioned “now what do people say” type comments almost as if the stock falling was a personal insult to them and they feel vindicated when there is good news. You’re susceptible to confirmation bias if you only agree with news that supports your view.
Like the quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?
5 Likes
I need help from forum experts to give leads to add up Vakrangee numbers for last 5 yrs. Categorize and justify their revenues and profits. I think if I am able to add up and find the right source it would be a treasure hunt as no one in this business doing exactly similar work made even 1/20th of their numbers. If we are not able to add up then it helps everyone know what new tricks business may be using and it will help overall in value investing analysis.
I have done analysis of aadhaar revenues that add to not more then 30 crore per year, and Banking corresponded business that is approx. 100 cr per year. Sale of equipment’s to franchise and non-refundable deposits can max add 60 crore per year. It doesnot work out on average more the. 200 crore per year … compared to average in books for 2700 cr per year.
These sectors are mentioned as primary revenue earners and data is from vakrangee own presentations and website.
2 Likes
1 Like
inspite of positive news why it’s consecutive LC??Is it discounting some more bad news in nearfuture
1 Like
Unfortunately this has been following a predictable script so far.
LC for some days followed by some good sounding news, UC for some sessions to trap people before the LC resumes again.
Lets see how this goes from here - At some stage the LC will stop, some more good news may be placed into the media and UC follows for some sessions to trap the next set of people…then LC follows again all the way to the bottom?
I am not surprised with the sequence of events so far, I do hope I am wrong though and that the muck here is not very deep. However, hope is never a good strategy!
5 Likes
It is following similar pattern as Treehouse education. That fell from 500 too and took a break at 160 and went back up to 220 to resume the fall. Today its at 12. I think Vakrangee should follow suit.
5 Likes
Any reasons?There is nothing in public domain as to why it’s going down in this manner.Anyone who could enlighten pl?
1 Like
I think management credibility has hit rock bottom after their goof up in equity investing and the not so believable explanations given after. Is there anything else?
Disclosure: I am not invested in vakrangee
2 Likes
Also many are deeply suspect about their reported revenue and profit. Well if Satyam can get away with it, almost anyone can. They got caught when they tried to invest in something totally irrelevant! Dejavu?
1 Like
There r enough indicators if one wants to ve a look and correlate with what has happened historically. I think it has been highlighted N times. Ultimately no one will open the locker n show look this is fraud. It’s a probabilistic game of connecting grey area dots and avoiding scripts where grey area probability is high. We may miss some genuine opportunities in the process ,so, depends what one wants to go with . Out of curiosity I started reading there annual report starting from 2008 recently and was shocked to see how their whole value and vision took a complete turn. These things are open to experience based interpretation which is a qualitative exercise ,so, however long be debate, it might be difficult to come on mutual terms. One can choose which way he wants to go. Attaching se screenshots
2 Likes
Document management systems were the rage a decade back. Now its asset-light business models. They do seem to know the pulse of the markets well. Maybe they will reinvent themselves with a Vakrangee ICO and make an entry in the crypto-currency space.
3 Likes
Thats why I said buddy no one will open the tijori and show fraud residing inside with a lock. There are enough patterns and historical cases to find similarities from the patterns . Hope someday we can build a supervised machine learning model to run on such companies using the structures and unstructured (AR rant ) data features n show look it has high probability of fraud . It’s not difficult actually , it’s just needs lot of effort .On data engineering part . Symptoms remain same. it started with MNC, then cement , then renewable energy , then .Com , then Infra, then IT remote Infra mgmt , then in parts SMAC , specialty chemical ,asset light business, moat business etc etc . Did not know doc mgmt was such a rage else I would ve got one more avenue to lose money in 2009. Paid my tuition fee in remote IT Infra mgmt 
1 Like
Thanks.makes sense and a learning for me
What about specilty chemicals??
I did not understand.
@django When there is a unique theme for which market is willing to pay a premium , the distant relatives of that theme also try to prove they are close relatives 
that’s what few companies are trying to do with specialty chemical whereas they are far away from being specialty chemical . In fact many of such companies have lot of dubious characteristics to be tagged into bhangaarcaps
1 Like
Anyone suspecting they r cooking in book-like Satyam or treehouse.
1 Like