The better matrix is to look current sensex PE and compare it with the historical average PE.
Hi Hitesh,
Not so much cash to make a meaningful position in 2-3 stocks. Thats why asked you to choose between Ajanta and Unichem at current levels. Its interesting you said Unichem. I was thinking u wud say Ajanta
Hi Manish,
Yes - I have adjusted for split bonuses.
So no wonder the stocks that have done wellin recession are also closer to their historical highs - e.g.
TCS - managed the IT downturn better than INFY
Sun Pharma - a value pickr & TED favourite
M&M - cashed on the sudden surge in diesel vehicles
ITC - evergreen
Bajaj Auto - 2 wheeler leader but fast loosing ground to 2wheeler MNC
Dr. Reddyās - I dont track this company - so no info at all
For the times to come - i think from here on, one has chance to make 15-20% safely in one year on L&T/BHEL, HDFC twins, and Tata Motors/Maruti
Assumptions - expenditure in infra (domestic/international) will only go up from here, rate revision has to happen in first 6 months of 2013 and an expected excise revision in Budget-2013 will benefit Auto cos.
Amey,
I hold HDFC-twins, ITC, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, BOB, RIL, BHEL, L&T& TCSin my large cap portfolio, added HUL recentlyand wantto add more ofHDFC Bank, ITC, L&T and Siemens.
congrats Manish !! that would make a good portfolio for retirement
wait & watch stocks like HDFC twins, ITC, Siemens, TCS compound slowly but steadily
RIL, Airtel - i am unsure about how good would the compounding effect be
Do you also have some high dividend yielding companies in your portfolio ? e.g. Graphite India ?
**RIL was a tempting buy below 800 and booked some profits around 940 and converted them into ITC at 280. Bhartiās headwinds are receding and I had bought between 240 to 280. **
**Regarding div yield, I do not depend on equity for my living & luxuries as my main income source is from business. I have a good mutual fund(both equity & debt)investments from where I get hefty dividends. **
amey
try to invert this question and ask yourself what would be the conditions where these stocks would give you negative returns.
hdfc twins are at peak valuations so there might be some sideways movement for some time before earnings catch up with valuations.
tata motors has some problems associated with JLR and its profit warnings.
hitesh, nice dat you keep a different perspective!
what do we do in that scenario ?
That seperates an expert from the rest.
Dear Hitesh Bhai just wanted to pick your latest thoughts on Globus spirits, how would you rate the mgmnt and what do you think about the stock post the recent correction
1). Ajanta pharma )-- ** On
9.2. **Aries Agro ā **It
**
** Valuation
83). **VST Tillers **cmp
** ** Valuation
** 104). Globus **
This ** Valuation
** 9.5. Intl **
This ** Valuation
** 9.Besides **
plunge.
analyst,
I have stopped following globus spirits of late and have no idea about valuations. Regarding management, I dont have much idea but they dont seem to have done much to take company on the growth path.
I think in correction in blue chips like hdfc bank, hdfc, etc and wannabe blue chips like gruh, yes, indusind, one needs to watch them for good entry points.
hitesh bhai,
request your answer to my question in this thread on January 28
thanks in advance
Ideally we wait for lower prices and sit on cash for some more time.
I think at cmp of around 208-210, gruh also offers great risk reward. Same with hdfc bank around 620 or so.
Many thanks Hitesh Bhai
Just curious what you think of MCX and FT at these levels? I am not quite sure whats causing MCX to correct so much and am wondering how much more downside do we see here.
I am also looking at Indag Rubber and Wimplast. Indag could be very good lonmg term story and for Wimplast i am not sure why there is such a big valuation gap with Supreme Industries given they are nore or less in the same business.
Once again i really do appreciate you taking the time to reply to usā¦ many thanks
analyst,
I think MCX (and therefore FT) suffers from market perception that govt may do something to screw up the moat it has and thus render the company a mediocre company. Otherwise looks like a good story.
Indag is a good company but since it caters mainly to the auto sector which is in the doldrums, it may take some time to resume its uptrend. Otherwise a good balance sheet and good growth.
Wimplast ā I think it is a less understood and less followed story. One of the reasons for undervaluations I can think of is relatively poor dividend payout. Supreme has consistently had a div payout ratio of more than 30% whereas Wimplast has around 15% since past two-three years.
I think for small caps to get recognition and higher PEs from markets, there has to be high div payout so that markets trust the earnings. Plus it helps protect on downsides in bear cycles.
Many thanks again Hitesh Bhai for your prompt responseā¦
well if MCX corrects further i will be tempted to buy because if i look at 10 years out this could be huge assuming nothing changes in the business modelā¦ i have some indag at 260 leevls willnibble if it goes below 200ā¦
Can Fin is another one which i quite like and i guess if they deliver a good result for Q4 which i think they will this could set the tone for the much needed rerating (given the valuation gap with other hosuing finance cos)
On Wimplastā¦ i am trying to get a sense of this new technology that they are using to develop a new range of products which i hear no other player in india is doingā¦ if they get good demand then i see a very strong case for this one to rerateā¦
Many thanks once again
Dear all,
With significant correction happening in the price of the stocks (Particularly Banking Stocks , midcaps and some Blue chips), wouldnāt it be prudent if all of us give a list of our 5-10 long term stocks which could be steady compounders and could lead to significant wealth affect.? A lot has been discussed in this forum about some of the good midcap companies. Undoubtedly they are good and well managed companies, but at a time when very good large caps (say Axis, HDFC, Asian Paints, titan etc.) trading at a significant discount to their all time highs, doesnāt it make sense to have a overall look at the portfolio strategy itself and shift a portion to the reasonably valued large caps (where the correction has happened largely because of economic factors than a fundamental change in the business dynamics)
hi hitesh,
i see u have vst tillers since 439 levels i am a recent convert and got in @ 1489 few days ago.
may be this one can change your outlook for holding a stock beyond 3 years looks unstoppable as of now.
is it food for some thought or you are happy with a 4 bagger and allocate funds elsewhere or dilute your holding in this particular scrip ?
your thoughts please.
i am new here & entred into market this yr.
need your view on these stocks
dhunseri tea
skm egg
pantaloon fashion & retail
mm forging
samkrg piston
My Top five pickā¦
- Happiest Mind technologyā¦digital AI
- Bajaj Healthcareā¦ fastest growing pharma
- Deepak Nitriteā¦ Leader in speciality chemical
- Beta drugā¦ Oncology player.
- Bajaj financeā¦ Retail, best NBFC
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