Technical updates

Stock Opportunities Techno-Funda Picks
81

You may try these 2 screeners which i use, although not so often.

http://dlngroup.com/old_home.php

Read this page on the right side. You will find cross overs. Also to analyse each stock you have to go to top left and click on Stock technical analysis. It does a very good analysis and you do not need more.

http://www.topstockresearch.com/

This too is a good screener and there are lots of things to learn here.

82

Thnx Tony & Raj

83

hi mallikarjun,

this is a stock which is very illiquid and has a history of moving in circuits. usually OEW analysis doesn’t work very efficiently on such stocks but i have given it a try. the stock rallied in five impulsive waves from 60 to 453 with the third wave subdividing into 5 waves as is typical(85-148-311-200-444). the stock since then has beenconsolidating above the top of the3rd of 3rd wave(mentioned as 311 in the prev line) on the bottom end and 400 on the higher end which is good.stock is trading below 200 dma and 50/10dmas are below200 dmas as well which is not a great technical setup.unless the stock closes for two consecutive days above thehigh ofprevious uptrend which is 450, i would not touch the stock. if you are interested in some bottom-fishing thenyou should look foreither 300-310 which is the bottom end of the range or better at 200 which was the fourth wave of third. this is a high risk bet as itis very illiquid and any bad news may not give you any chance to exit the stock.

84

Hemant sir,eagerly waiting for your technical updates for stocks which are in a 3 of 3 uptrend :slight_smile:

85

Hi Hemant,

Do you track Gulshan Polyols or see value in buying it?

Thanks!

86

Thanku Hemant sir :slight_smile:

Regards

Mallikarjun

87

Any technical views on Ajanta??

88

Ajanta is in the buying zone(525-550)

89

yes seems a good buy especially if u have managed to sell closer to 650 levels.

looking at the markets these days it seems index is a totally managed show. a handful of stocks with high index weightage like reliance, hdfc, infosys, HUL, ITC etc are taking care of sensex.

the mid and small caps are bearing the brunt of bearish bashing.

Reminds me of sometime in may 2004 when right in the midst of a bull market there was a similar carnage and people were beginning to think that the bull market was over. In hindsight one can make out that the seeds of the mega bull run esp of small and midcaps till 2007 were sown in this correction.

This is just an observation and does not indicate we are going to see a similar bull market.

Currently it seems the dog is dancing and the tail refuses to wag. How long this will continue and what the outcome will be is difficult to make out.

90

hi hitesh,

agree with you. refering to the triangles i mentioned in my “recent smallcap and midcap correction” post, I think we are at a very important juncture for the market where midcaps and smallcaps are testing the bottom range of their triangles. Triangle conclusively breaking on the downside would have very disastrous implications for the broader market while on the other side, we could be forming a very significant bottom here for many months to come. i think next few weeks are very crucial and would determine the fate of the smallcaps for the next many months. Till now quality names have held up well and mostly high beta speculative ones have corrected. once quality names join the carnage like they did in 2008, i would start to get worried. till now, it looks like the healthy correction which is taking away a lot of froth built up in the speculative names. I am adding aggressively to all the names in my portfolio.

91

Hemant Sir the article in the link talks about concerted efforts by bear traders.

Regards

Mallikarjun

92

Hi Hemant,

Please give your technical analysis on Muthoot Capital Services if possible. This is one of the very few small caps which have escapted the bear brunt. Technically, I feel it is making a nice sideways pattern and holding on to 120 very firmly.

Regards,

Roberto

Disc: I am invested in this

93

hi sandriano,

looking at the chart, I can’t see anything exciting here. the chart doesn’t look impulsive and doesn’t show any pattern which can tell me that its in a long term uptrend. it is rght now bouncing off the 50 dma and could give a bounceback. the medium term resisitance is in the 150-170 region where it topped out during 2010 and 2011. we would need to re-assess if it starts trading above that resistance. for me, its at best a trading bet and not a core portfolio bet.

94

Hi Hemant/Hitesh,

Any views on Coromandel International? It also has fallen quite significantly. Does this provide good entry point?

Thanks

Chaitanya

95

detailed feb update:

1). ajanta pharma - as discussed earlier, the stock had started itsmajor 3 wave from 400 which carried it to 650+, the correction that followed was a quick sharp minor 2 which corrected 50% of minor 1. the stock has now started its minor 3 wave higher which should take it to 700 eventually.

2). arshiya intern - broke down from the long term range and collapsed since then. would need a lot of consolidation/rally to correct the long term chart.

3._astral_poly - consolidation in the 350-400 is over now with a closing high today. stock is in a fifth minor of major 1 and should rally to 475-500 over the next few months. a more pronounced correction should follow then. this stock has been in a major 3 of primary 3 uptrend and is a perfect example of what 3 of 3 waves can do. the stock has rallied to a fresh life time high despite the smallcap carnage.

4). atul_auto_)- as expected in the last update, the stock has been moving sideways to allow the moving averages to catch up. 50 ema is now at 187 and should provide strong support in any correction. expect the stock to rally to 250+ after this correction is over.

5). balkrishna - stock is testing 200 ema now after a long sideways consolidation between 250 and 300 over the last year or so. conclusive breakdown below the lower end of the range could make the stock slip to 170.

6). granules - stock broke through the 200 ema on the downside and i recommended an exit then at 146. the stock has since corrected to the 76.4% retracement level of the entire previous 2011-12 uptrend and is trying to form a base there. if this level is held, the stock could attempt a rally to 200 ema at 144 again.

7). cera - continues to consolidate above the 100 ema while it goes through time correction. close above 445 should trigger the next uptrend.

8). hawkins - stock tested 100 ema and has now found support around 2150-2200 region. should spend some time forming a base here.

9). kaveri seeds - 50 ema continues to provide support and nothing suggests that the uptrend is over. as long as the stock holds 1175, the uptrend continues.

10). mayur - stock seems to have broken from its long consolidation in the 460-490 region which now seems like distribution at higher levels. stock is now heading towards 200 ema at 390-400 region which should be an excellent buying oppurtunity.

11). page - stock broke down from the channel and tested 200 ema for the first time since 2009. stock should find a base here before attempting a new uptrend to 4000+.

12). amara raja - testing 50 ema at 280 again. should spend some time consolidating between 280-320 region.

disc : these are my personal technical thoughts. i may have interest in one or all of these. these are not recommendations to buy or sell. please do you own analysis before buying/selling.

96

Hi Hemant/Hitesh/Tony (and other chartists),

Can you confirm if attached chart of Balkrishna Ind is a genuine rising-wedge and hence super-bearish if pattern breaks down below this?

It has already broken down 50 & 100 emas and looks like today has just broken down below the 200 ema (266) watermark too?

Combined with bad news on BKT funda-thread, not just in-terms of deteriorating business but also declining standards of disclosures from mgmt, it might be time for me start looking at it with a view to exit fully. I’ve already booked profits in significant qty at recent surge to ~300 levels. Holding token qty for the sole reason that most capex is done, it’s time to reap benefits. But this chart (if it’s valid, then isn’t it massively bearish?) and news-flow is making me jittery.

Any advice on how to play this out?


97

Hi Kamikazi,

The chart shows that BKT is in a sell mode. It made a double bottom at 275 and now it has made another bottom at 260, although the closing price is reflected in the chart at 263 odd. The next support is at 245-50 and thereafter at 225 and 190. You are right that the stock is currently trading close to its 200 DMA. The stock is very weak and with weak results the stock could reach lower levels.

98

I am a fan of you hemant what’s your view on Unichem , Wockhardt and Gruh

99

any technical views on titan ?

cheers

100

kamikazi,

bkt, has been consolidating sideways for almost an year now between 315 on the higher side and 240 on the lower side. it is currently trading below all EMAs - 50,100 and 200. the setup for the stock is bearish and the support comes in at 240 -245 region where multiple bottoms have formed in the past. once that is broken, the stock should drift lower to 150 which is the next significant support. having said that, i would not take any position in the stock until the sideways range is broken.