i am Overwhelmed by the great reply and knowledge shared by @nirajiitkgp @DEEPAKSINGH @Vulture , seriously super write up… was of great help ! i am not that good at writing up so if any mistake by me pls excuse me for that …
I too have read at many places about the sugar shortage at various places like Brazil, India, Thailand and it is gonna last another Sugar year too ! like India ISMA & GOI, there have been reports from Brazil, USA, Thailand too that the production is gonna be less and there is indeed gonna be a shortage of Raw Sugar plus People diverting too Ethanol is gonna make the things more interesting. moreover this current prices of 38-40 GOI has said that they are comfortable with it, so mills having inventory at prices of 25-26 should give another 2-3 quarters good profit atleast.
Also read and heard that what people call Sugar industry as cyclical industry is also gonna change because of constant profit year after year from sugar mills, cause As unlike earlier GOI has approved for increase in Ethanol in petrol and other point is of Energy resource is also gonna be plus for sugar industries… molasses & Distillery division is added plus… and since because of the high sugar prices and huge profits many Sugar Arrears and debts have been paid off which remove this industry from being debt laden… so chances are many fund houses will start increasing their exposure to this Sugar Stocks and so the rally should continue … apart from 2-3 stocks they dont have much exposure and so there is lot of scope for rerating and high allocation. As we can see the ICE future rate and huge long Bets which are been placed, and so ICE future gonna be at new life highs, people are already predicting this sugar story and price is here to stay …
as earlier in this blog it was expressed by @Mehnazfatima the bubble level and people euphoria has still lot of time left upto May -June 2017 there perhaps a top will be made, and sheer experience and knowledge by @nirajiitkgp i will also be keeping a close look on Dhampur- Balrampur- EID parry price to come out of this sector than … hope whenever @nirajiitkgp you see this happening please Mention over here too that Peak is near 
We will know about the quantity of sugar production only towatds mid April 2017…most probably the sugar should be less than that predicted by Govt and ISMA…
Would like to Ask 2 more points : -
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Recently monsoon has progressed very well in India but i saw on Zee news 2 days back, that many districts in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are having Flood situation last 2-3 days and perhaps are in Sugar belt areas…
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There is a article in Economic times (Pune) 21st July ; - A MNC trade house has booked 25,000 Ton raw Sugar to be imported through a Maharashtra mill. import duty as of now is 40%
Can anyone please elaborate what could this mean going ahead… cause this is surely gonna have a impact !!!
With 40% import duty the landed cost works out to 50 rupees per kg…perhaps the traders want to signal to the govt that sygar price in india is going to cross 50 rupees per kg. This is just a tactic to pressurise the govt to reduce import duty.
It also can be an attempt to create a hype about the shortage so that sugar prices rally higher in the domestic market. Commodity players seldom resort to such gimmick’s
I am posting weekly chart of Balrampur and Dhampur sugar with Andrews Pitchfork and with momentum indicator. The stocks have found support at the median line and the momentum indicator is indicating a turnaround. Perhaps, the long expected rally in these two stocks may commence from next week onwards
Can the stock rally despite rsi being high at 82 ??
For Balrampur the RSI readings are as follows: Monthly -73.75, weekly - 67.66 and daily - 53.20.
For Dhampur the RSI readings are : monthly - 74.43, weekly - 71.07 and daily -53.66…
Both the stocks are not overbought on any of the timeframes. I do not see any impediment to rally in these two stocks.
Dear, if you could also post about your view for Ugar Sugar I will appreciate… What’s the tentative over bought area according to you.
Manishji: in sugar sector the time to look for such things as overbought levels would be in mid 2017…till then the general trend of sugar stocks may be up…and within that uptrend there will be periods of consolidation…i think after another leg of the rally, sugar stock may consolidate for 2-3 months in sept / oct / nov/ dec…
@MehnazfatimaJi: Thankyou for the prompt reply, in short you have a feel Another leg of Sugar rally is about to start which should last upto Sep / oct thereabouts … right and will surely be sitting tight upto Mid 2017 … will be keeping all hear on ground talks and eyes for your Charts which have been true since last 2-3 years as we can see on this thread … Thanks !!
Today there was a volatility breakout in Renuka Sugar…prior to that the stock was under extreme volatility compression.
Similarly, balarampur and Dhampur sugar are showing most extreme volatility compression. It is just a matter of time before there is a volatility breakout in these two sugar stocks. I am hoping that the breakout happens either tomorrow or on Friday as the momentum indicators for these two stocks have already turned up…
Those who have missed purchasing these two stocks at lower levels can still do so (preferably in the first half of tomorrow…if possible)…Those who are already invested in Balrampur and Dhampur may fasten their seat belts…
Triveni Eng is another one . Huge value unlocking will take place in
next three months as DEMERGER gets completed
Aroraji: the new demerger proposal of Triveni has not yet recieved shareholder approval…after that comes the approval from high court…this process may take quite a few months…maybe around 8-12 months
Morning Everyone!!
This is very interesting forum as you get to read lot of knowledgeable stuff. I am new to this stock market thing. I just can not thank enough to everyone as thanks is such a small word. Well let me come to the point. I have seen here extensive research on almost every sugar stock. I am invested heavily in Uperganges. I am seeing since 11 july stock is kind of moving stickily. It just moved and come back to where it started. I dont see much promoters movement also. I would like to know from the fellow members here what do you all think of uperganges? After giving more than 500% is this stock drenched of sugar 
Waiting to hear from you all
KCP Sugar Q1: Total Income +56.3% At Rs 112.7 Cr Vs Rs 72.1 Cr (YoY)
KCP Sugar Q1: Net Profit At Rs 10.9 Cr Vs Loss Of Rs 21.8 Cr (YoY
Another very important, as per Mr.Tulsian , Balrampur has released around 19L quintals of Sugar in this quarter out of 57 L Qs ,and we know it has a margin of Rs 7-8 per KG.
Dear @Mehnazfatima any idea how the prices will react to this news.http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/govt-mulls-curbs-on-sugar-sales-at-mill-level-to-check-prices-116072801234_1.html
because that will put a huge control on all the inventory situation.