I believe its a good buy around Rs 70 - Rs 80 per share , FY18 EPS will be around 7. Street was expecting around 9.
// Here my 2 cents on other link.
Only good thing is they are in the process of reducing Debt, They were again Cash flow positive and most of it went to Debt repayment, I believe this to continue for a while.
So they have around 3,833 Cr of debt and lets say they continue to re pay it (203 cr half year) Rs 400 Cr (10% of debt) every year, Then also it will take some time to repay all of it.
but good news it as they will repay, the interest cost - which was huge 4 times of profits FY17, will also start coming down. So, they will have more and more cash flow and they will be able to pay it out faster.
I don’t want to quantify it all by using DCF, I don’t believe in it. Nobody can estimate future cash flow. Back of the envelop works good for me.
My only worry was FCCB (you never know when again INR could go for a toss ) , which i want to see how much got converted into equity already . Some of it has happened already -
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/69399f9e-1226-4a33-8796-aa8089eb530f.pdf
I do see lots of green shoots, I have some tracking position in the stock.
I would love to buy it at 10 times earning with my FY18 EPS estimate of around 7-8.
Thanks,
Dhruva