Thanks @Anant for a crisp note.
Let me add my impressions/focus areas from the AGM/Sidelines Interaction:
1.Management Quality/Whats in the DNA
Seems very committed, patient, long-sighted entrepreneur - who knows what he is doing. Like the systemic thoroughness in his approach. Defence Segment being key to future plans - was happy to note how he described ShivaTex graduating from a “greenhorn” status to now enjoying “mindshare” among decision-makers. More importantly, that they now are familiar with the systems and processes (every stage of sampling, foreign lab testing, evaluation, competitive bidding, at least 2 vendor, etc.).
Seemed focused on quality execution. Mostly rated among Top2 in Field Tests in different climatic conditions/regions. Also happy to note their competency in alternate RM sourcing - may prove crucial while harnessing global opportunities, in coming years. (Source: Management Claims)
2.Defense Order Continuacy/Execution Risks
Again good to note Mgmt did not brush off execution risks on this front. That even failure of other vendor to meet quality standards can jeopardise things. Good to know DRDE has the processes of making sure selected vendors are in touch with each other at each stage - approval, pilot supplies, and subsequently. Effective documentation at every level of testing, demo, approval, ordering ensure subsequent orders may not be scuttled on other (vested) reasons (other than product failing to meet quality standards).
3.Next Level for the Business
Good to see a confirmation of our hypothesis that Defence Execution is key. There is a decent pipeline of products in their niche (like High Altitude is next) where Shiva Tex again should be among qualified leading suppliers - Process is underway. Other segments are supporting lines.
If they continue to execute - bag other product line orders and deliver on quality - this will be a different business altogether. Many more optionalities (incl. global supply) should emerge - which there is no reason the business cannot then harness.
4.Concerns
Higher cost of financing - not explained. Did acknowledge though that there could be better financing models. Promised to revert via email
@Anant kindly pursue on this; given Bannari groups competence, can’t say am not a bit surprised here
5.Valuation
Having said all above, current valuation range seems to have priced in all the good things - lot of assumptions embedded . Prefer to wait and watch them execute for couple of years, and then make an entry if fully convinced - (coy in the first couple of months of execution now - in key segment)
Disc: Not invested. Not interested at current valuation ranges.