Repro india limited


(Investor2025) #189

Friends

  1. Currently they are selling 4000+ bpd which translates into 3.6 cr per month. As mr.khera said to Quint interview it will reach 16000+ bpd Q1FY19. which will translates into 15cr per month and 45cr a quarter. Profit margin they have not disclosed but if we assume 12% npm then 5.5 cr which translates into Rs.20 eps means 40 times FY19 Earnings.
    After this period the real game will starts…

2)Now in us online books sales is 5lacs bpd which 50% of whole market. So if we can reach 10th of us market by 2020 then it will be 50000 bpd which translates into Rs.61 eps.
Imagine if they successfully delivered this number then what will be the price.
3) Dont forget they have 1.6 millions of titles which is entry bariar …
4)Can we assign 250 cr of mcap to old business?
Then we are paying 650 cr to BOD business with ingram.
5)Mr.Khera said they are going pretty faster than what they have projected thats why they have needed money.
6)Malabar india mr.nagar and vijay kedia another factor of confidence
7)If Amazon take over Ingram then Repro will only be printing company! ! And price will be Rs 100. Everything depends on ingram which is privetly held company.

Guys i have just started learning stock fundamentals and all ,so correct me whereever i am wrong.

Disc: Invested 25% of portfolio.


(1.5cr) #190

Let me tell you something. Mgmt. projections are just that… projections. Execution has to follow. As per these fantastic projections the company looks cheap. But so does every company if we assign 30% plus earnings growth YoY for 4 years. If you do that many many companies will look cheap. As per those projections itself we are paying 40x earnings that in itself is discounting growth at that very optimistic projection. I have a holding in Repro. They were 10% of my original portfolio. I have since got more cahs and they now make up 2% of my portfolio. I cannot buy more at cmp. i would happily give them a 10% allocation because of the accelerated growth opportunity. But definately not at cmp.
All I can say is that buying at cmp does not make any sense, atleast that whats I think. Fundamentals need to improve for me to load up again.
Old business is currently just turning around. Currently we dont know anything about margins of new business but I think 10% net is a decent assumption.
Everything stated by mgmt is possible. It is just that valuations have discounted big growth. I would not buy at cmp. the maximum I would pay at this point is 600rs per share.


(Parth2013) #191

Hello kuldeep
I want to share something here.
Their current earning in bod is 4 cr per month .
Their titles are 2.2 millions, not 1.6 .
Ingram has already cleared many times that they will never sold to any one at any cost .
And in valuation aspect… they are growing at very very fast speed in bod so there is no any worry even if they are trading at 60-70 pe of current eps.
Because at the end of the day price will follow the earning.
And Mr Nagar and Mr kedia sir are not buying stocks for 2-3 times of returns.
Their history tells us about that .
So pl think big about repro if you hold 25% of your portfolio.
Mine is 45% .
Disc. Will remain invested upto 2030 because I strongly believe that the journey will only be started after 2020 .


(1.5cr) #192

Interesting take. Kedia sees them as 6000cr company over the next 5 years. Personally I would consider buying again if I get the company for 500cr-600cr.


(yudiagg) #193

Has Kedia a track record of always being right ? He has been recommending it for last many years- but there is no improvement in company financials.

How many would have bought it at these valuations, had Kedia had not been recommending it - probably none.


(1.5cr) #194

Nobody would have bought at these valuations. Thing is Kedia knew about the bod business long time back. He began taking his position at 300 bucks. It is a core holding so he has already made 100%+ return in a short span of time making his CAGR return on the investment very handsome already. Nobody would bet that much of their portfolio on a single company. He has bet big on Repro India it is very obvious now via his recent aquisition of shares. Kedia definately has a better track record than majority of the investors in India. Fundamentals are yet to improve and in my personal opinion Repro is a buy at 400-500rs not more than that.


(btunuguntla) #195

Is no one interested in answering the questions? Or no one has an answer? Let’s keep aside the market cap for some time and talk about the problems and solutions.

Looking forward for answers from Experts.


(Kunal Parikh) #196

Hi,

I have mailed the company secretary about your questions which are all genuine. I shall post once they reply.

Thanks,
Kunal


(Rahul_Bhansali) #197

Hi btunuguntla,

  1. Cost of materials as a % of sales is more or less same qoq after considering changes in inventory.
  2. I don’t know why finance costs have gone up this quarter though there have been minor fluctuations in the past as well. Also the debt reduction could have happened at the end of quarter. I would tend to focus more on the annual numbers.
  3. The 6.31cr provision won’t have any impact on the cash on the books.
  4. The change in profit for q2FY17 is due to adoption of IndAS. They have given the reconciliation of numbers on page 3 of the results. It’s mainly got to do with reversal of provision for expected losses on trade receivables of Rs14.3cr.

Hope this helps.


(btunuguntla) #198

Thank you!

For the 3rd point: so the entire provision is done right in q1 and q2? so we will not have higher other expenses from q3 which will result in higher PAT.


(Rahul_Bhansali) #199

As and when they recover debtors, they will show it in other income as well as other expenses so there will be no impact on PAT. They have done the same for Q1 and Q2FY18.


(Investor2025) #200

Promoters are again selling !!


(..pd..) #201

And there is someone buying as well. Related to Sunidhi Securities. This name was there in the AR in top 10 shareholders.


(btunuguntla) #202

it’s an inter transfer from one promoter to another.


(Investor2025) #203

hii guys…

Does any one had idea about sharing between Amazon Ingram and Repro .???


If amazon charges around 13% (Ingram can charge the same %) then Repro k liye kya bachega???
@kunal28parikh @suru27 both seniors if you have any idea ??

Promotors selling raises serious question on the company specially when valuations are highly stretched …


(1.5cr) #204

Okay, look nobody knows the break up and nobody knows BOD margins. Mgmt has previously stated that it would be similar to the original business. I can tell you that Repro will make on avergae across all titles sold (colour, non colour, front, mid, back etc:) 10% net margin. It could go slightly above that but 10% is a slightly conservative figure and it makes sense to work around that number. Repro India is a futuristic business, none of know how it will pan out. It is best to make a back of the envelope calculation and take a call. You dont want to miss the big picture when you invest. Great portfolio managers dont delve too deep. Instead they are able to keep things simple. Analysts that grind out research reports arent very wealthy. So keep it simple with this investment. If things dont work out, you can always exit. I assume majority of the investors on this thread have avg buys of around 450-500.


(Investor2025) #205

Repples will be the future of education,…


(..pd..) #206

Isn’t it steps for moving from blackboard to digit one? Where does Repro is in picture in this?


(Investor2025) #207

When teachers will use digital blackboard then students will also move from notebook to device like repples…
In short it’s starting of the edge repro has predicted few years earlier…


(Kumar Saurabh) #208

We should learn to differentiate between signal and noise is all I can say :slight_smile: