no issues. respectfully, whether one buys a stock or just recommends others to buy it, it counts and shows.
investing is all about probability. repco might turn out to be the worst investment in history, but based on my analysis of repco, my average cost (200), and current price, i like the probability over medium term, hence am invested. But opinion in investment change with facts and time, and I might change mine tomorrow.
i also donât like the sudden price rise, but markets donât go my likings as I mentioned earlier, such madness earlier also happened in gruh, hawkins, zydus wellness, gsk consumer, jubilant foodworks, grp etc. if the business continues to perform, stock consolidates like it happened in gruh, gsk consumer, jubilant. If the business falters, stock falls big time like it happened in hawkins, zydus, grp. so we need track the business.
i didnât buy titan on borrowed conviction, nor do i sell/ stop buying repco on borrowed conviction. If i buy and it falls by 50% or i sell and it goes up 100%, nobody is going to compensate me, right? If today i buy/ sell on borrowed conviction, i will end up living on borrowed money tomorrow!
about titan, i continue to disagree with you. the original idea was of rakesh jhunjhunwala, way back in 2001. if the business has done so well since then, the stock has done so well, and he held onto it for 13 years, I think he deserves some credit. I did my own analysis of titan, and bought when it was at reasonable price of 175 in dec 2011. i would have continued to hold onto it for long term but for rbi policy change. so most people rightly sold titan for a reason â the change in govt policy which effected fundamentals. but I did not panic sell at 200-210, I waited and sold at 238. that is where own conviction comes handy.
any company can be affected by policy change. suppose rbi comes out with a circular today saying â there is slowdown and price correction in real estate, we need to ensure integrity of financial system, housing finance companies need to reduce leverage to 5-6 times (reasonable scenario). hdfc/ gruh business will be severely impacted and their ROE will halve and stock price will collapse. so fearing possible policy change, should one stop investing in hdfc/ gruh?
take another situation. Elections are coming. congress says along with food security bill, pressure cookers are a basic necessity, so it will buy 1 cr pressure cooker at say rs 500 from two L1 bidders (L1 so will likely be prestige and maybe vinod/ butterfly) and distribute through ration shops/ army canteens at rs. 250. (cost to govt only 250 cr â possible scenario). now people buy pressure cookers once in 5 years. how will it impact demand for Hawkins for next 2-3 years. what will happen to this illiquid share with concentrated holding in 1 group, with little demand outside?
there is never a canât miss stock. not titan, not jubilant, not gruh, not hawkins, not microsoft, no stock is a canât miss stock. ttk prestige was the best stock in the last 4 years, most investors missed it, but still did ok, right ?
about repco interviews, such noises happen when a stock goes up. there were anonymous reports on hawkins when it came to 1800 for the first time, multiple magazine articles and blogs on gruh when it came to 230 the first time, hype over new product launches of zydus wellness etc. lot of investors wait for full clarity, pushing the price up â like I mentioned some people buying hawkins only at 2000. some bloggers even advise buying a stock at 100, continue buying on way up and stop buying if it comes to 80, without using brains!
presence of large leveraged investors is discomforting, but a point to ponder â such investors of titan are also most probably holding hawkins and gruh? Does it change your investments? not for you maybe, but for many people, hawkins and gruh is also borrowed conviction.