You are right about the loan book mix here. One more thing i noticed is the dilution PNB housing is doing vis a vis Can Fin. Can fin has not diluted the equity in last 10-12 years. Whereas look at PNB housing. The growth it is showing is realistically half of the actual growth... as equity is getting diluted at a ferocious pace. If you are growing at 40% CAGR but diluting equity at the same time at a hectic pace, actual returns are much lower. One can argue that it is good to dilute equity at higher p/b. Well, yes, it is. But growth should be seen relative to the dilution. Growing at 20-25% CAGR without dilution is same as growing at 45% CAGR with 50% dilution.
Anyways, all well till the going is good. But any moderation in growth wouldn't not be taken lightly by the market at these valuations.
Another thing i am worried about is the subsidies that are going to come for affordable housing, they are actually reducing the total loan value of the loan i.e. if the house costs 20 lac, and subsidy is 3-4 lac, loan would now be 16 lac not 20 lac. So, this is going to impact the growth as affordable housing is what everyone is eyeing. Also, one should consider the quality of loan book while lending to affordable segment. Their pay back power and stuff. No one is giving a damn about all these negatives and is getting blinded by growth.
We shouldn't forget that when getting loans is easier, and the borrower is spoilt with choice, things will go downhill.