• Revenue down ‐7.5% YoY.
• EBITDA down ‐18.8% YoY.
• PAT down ‐23.6% YoY.
Observations from Investor Presentation:
There has been build-up of excess inventory impacting the overall ecosystem and resulting in unsustainable business practices.
On ARS: “4086+ distributor accounts, the complete adoption & transformation to a pull-based
process will require some time”
E-com business has witnessed growth of 43% YoY.
22,239 Employees | My remarks: Further reduction compared to Q4FY23 (was was 23,853).
Notes from the Q1FY24 conference call:
Q1FY23 had highest ever sales and not a good base to compare.
How to think about ongoing volume de-growth? Demand still subdued | Not in a position to judge whether volume de-growth will not repeat in the coming Qtr. | Hope that upcoming festive season will be buoyant.
Which part of other expense was controlled? Extreme focus to cut unnecessary cost | Cost savings on logistics and travel.
Too much ongoing offers/schemes in the marketplace by competitors to liquidate their inventory | Page inventory is 3+ months whereas competitors inventory ranges from 9~12 months
Could Jockey become a full-fledged apparel brand (observations from SKUs such as jeans)? Look at adjacencies to the brand signature
Distributor count used to be 4800+ but now 4000+? No attrition. Result of consolidation.
On employee count reduction: Allowing normal attrition in operations. Could hire back with business momentum. Added people in sales and distribution
Why women’s and kid’s segment have not scaled up like men’s segment? Highly unorganized market | Investing with focus to communicate and improve market penetration | Nothing shall stop us.
Have you noticed a deterioration in selection, stock availability and loss of value in Jockey underwear? I was a Jockey fan ever since they came to India, tried many brands, but ended up buying Jockey exclusively after the first few years. Always loved their products and selection and recommended it to friends and family.
Post covid I tried to purchase Jockey underwear thrice and never bought anything. Simply couldn’t find underwear that I liked and didn’t feel like paying the money for sub-par prints. I am not sure if it’s the locality I am living in.
This might be an issue in your locality where they might be downsizing due to lower store sales?
My experience of recent purchases have been seamless and I didn’t face any issues in nearby stores. Their retail network penetration across Bangalore city has improved massively. SKUs and designs are also available and infact there are many more options to pick now. Jockey is my trusted brand and I never buy inner-wear other than Jockey. Moreover, retailers do not offer any discount on Jockey, but do offer 10% or more on other brands (Rupa, Lux, etc), which speaks volumes of Jockey brand.
Page’s Management has been very honest and transparent, at times conservative in their guidance. In my view these great brands (Jockey, Speedo), good corporate governance, sales tailwinds and strong pricing power should be rewarded by market following lacklustre stock performance over almost 5 years now.
I am located in the rural Bangalore, so location might be the issue as you said. However they always seem to be out of stock on whichever design I pick.
I will visit a Jockey brand outlet somewhere in Bangalore and update my feedback. Thanks for your reply.
Agree to this observation in some urban cities as well. This is specially true in all new stores they opened. I was looking for kids and never found design anywhere…
However I knew i had to buy Jockey only and had a seamless online experience during covid so ordered online. Got all options and delivery in single box in 2 days !
Dealer checks are suggesting degrowth in volumes this quarter due to muted demand and increase in competition from peers and as ARS has not yet been sucessful dealers are struggling with wrong inventory
Sharing an observation about current inventory state of Page Industries
Ordered from Jockey site twice within this year
Both times received items which had been manufactured at least 6 months ago - implies that Page is siting on inventory not yet sold /shipped to Dealers
Also checked local shops - their inventory also had manufacturing dates ranging from 9 months to 1.5 years in past
Seems there is a slowdown in demand
Also saw that cheaper alternatives like Amul are flying off the shelf
What are your thoughts on this, since its a premium Priced Product
Definately there is downtrading going on in this sector , but apart from that one another key trend that I am witnessing is that people now want more options/colors/variety even in undergarments and traditional colors and types are becoming outdated. So people are ready to cut some slack on quality but the looks are mattering more. Is this a temporary phenomenon or a structural change only time will tell. This may be the key reason why page is struggling in womens undergarments where color options and varieties are limited.
One more example is of Zudio, which gives you the latest fashion trends but lower quality but still flies of the shelf
ARS implementation reached a good level of maturity.
Channel inventory level is still high compared to expected levels.
Discounting intensity from competitors has reduced in Q3 compared to H1.
Demand remains subdued. Not sure how long it will take to normalize. Margins were on the lower level of the aspired range (19~21%) as still selling high cost inventory. Fresh inventory has lower cost raw material.
Athleisure category volume degrew in Q3. Also, its channel inventory remains high. Competitors (not Page) using discounting push to flush out their inventory.
Don’t know if it’s just me but Vedji Ticku used to communicate properly while VSG only says a few words about a specific question and starts to generalise about long term picture, robust growth etc
eCom growth was 39% for Q3 and 28% was for YTD
Page finally has good product range in Athleisure which is where bulk of the incremental growth is going to come. They had very few designs and product offering range itself was small pre-covid. They have worked hard to improve this but the pricing is a big hurdle they need to overcome. I am not sure how they can scale Athleisure if they continue with the existing prices, particularly outside of metro/t1 cities. 40-50% premium to competition is a bit too streched. There is a huge addressable market but I feel they are limiting themselves to targeting a tiny part of the population with the rigid pricing model.
There seems to be a lack of understanding by Page’s management about the market dynamics and how big of a tailwind apparel has in India given the increase in discretionary spends. Every person wants to “look” good, brand matters but not at a 50% markup unless you’re catering only to the luxury segment.
The power has shifted back to the retailer and consumers will prefer Zudio/Trends over legacy brands like Page because of the steep difference in price points. Zudio had 60% growth in apparel for the last two quarters. Brand loyalty has taken a hit with change in customer buying patterns.
Even after seeing such fantastic eCom growth, the management is still hell bent on not having a native application on either Android or ios. Significantly smaller brands who do 100-200 crore turnover have applications as people use their smartphones 4-6 hours a day and a lot of online shopping happens online via mobile but no… not Page! Abfrl has different applications for each of their big brands like Van Heusen, Louis Philippe, Peter England, Allen Solly etc…
Either the management is too late or they focus too much on ARS/logistics/distribution etc forgetting such trivial things. I still remember from the previous con calls in 2019-21 period on how Bharat Shah (ASK) was quizzing the management about below average marketing/reach. They have followed a similar trend in apparel too.
Disc - top-3 holding, made transactions in the last 30-days
Whats the view on the stock after a steep fall and now trading at 52W low levels? Despite good results in Q3 and Domestic MF continuously increasing stake (FIIs and Retail reducing).
Any potential triggers to watch out for as valuation appears reasonable now?
It’s going through PE derating. Since earnings have collapsed due to weak consumer demand. Hence we see the high PE and price may go further down as it starts derating more. Hopefully demand kicks in soon. They’ve launched athleisure, etc and i see a lot of reviews (mostly positive) on their products even when they are priced very high (aka more buyers)
