Natco Pharma: Focusing On Complex Products

In my experience P/E is just a number no body knows what P/E is correct or wrong for a company. People buy when they see good quarterly results and people sell when quarterly results are not good. There is no role of P/E. When results are good P/E increases just because people like the stock and buy more but not that they know what should be P/E of this company. Same goes for declining P/E due to slowing growth not because they know right P/E.

Let me know if people agree with my view.

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You seem to have missed the price erosion in your calculation. Particularly given today’s environment in US.

Personally I think Natco will struggle to break free because there is no sustained large pipeline except a few blockbusters. See what has happened to Torrent after gNexium. [quote=“stockcollector, post:144, topic:5238”]
Lenalidomide will kick in from March 2022 - this is a huge opportunity! Lenalidomide market size in USA continues to increase and in 2018 the market size is probably 10 billion (guesstimate). 10% market share in 2022 will earn Natco 1 billion. Assume 50% profit share and let us assume 30% cost for materials and other expenses - 200 million profit (1300 crores in today’s exchange rate approx) and then gradual increase every year until 2026 and then…
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Ruffles - agree with your comments!

Gary - Lenalidomide patent expiry is in 2026. Based on agreement with celgene, Natco will be able to sell 10% from 2022 with gradual escalation to 33% in 2025 and then from 2026 onwards unlimited quantities (from 2026 natco could be competing with celgene and other generic players as and when they enter). So there will not be price erosion before 2026!

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And if I’m not wrong at least 5-6 people have already submitted ANDA for Revlimid. Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, zydus etc. And I think Dr Reddy’s is already under a lawsuit with Celgene. So, gains from this will be essentially limited.

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Celgene will fight it. If Dr Reddy’s get a favorable verdict, then the above dates get accelerated!
I am aware of only Dr Reddy’s, no one else in the fray - I could be wrong here.

Alvogen also has challenged Celgene as of septemebr 2017.

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/02/13/1339539/0/en/Sandoz-announces-US-FDA-approval-and-launch-of-Glatopa-40-mg-mL-three-times-a-week-generic-option-for-relapsing-forms-of-multiple-sclerosis.html

The competition for Copaxone now intensifies. Sandoz (division of Novartis), get US FDA approval for Glatopa 40 mg

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Lot of insider buying since Jan 2018. Rajeev Nannapaneni bot ~ INR 15 lakhs worth of shares on 12th Feb.

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Zero observations in recent USFDA audit - https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/cd85f52c-10ad-4bf6-b225-8fc58c8b7ab8.pdf

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15 lakhs worth of share is like penny. Nothing to make out of it.

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Their relatives purchased Rs1.97 cr worth too.

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Hello
Teva Pharma and Natco Pharma Submit ANDAs to the FDA Requesting Permission to Manufacture Generic Sovaldi, Argue Gilead’s Patents are Not Valid

Any update? Please share.

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Info from Mylan con call Re- copaxone. 14% market share and 18% of new prescriptions. Gaining patients every day.

Mylan rocking today due to upgrade by Morgan Stanley

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when will copaxone start showing up in Natco’s revenues?

From q4 onwards, this qtr

This qtr natco will have solid growth both top line and bottom line due to severe flue sales and copaxone sales.

Invested, so doing proper follow up every day

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As per the below article, Shionogi Inc., a pharmaceutical company in Japan, is currently testing a new treatment that could kill the flu virus with just one dose of medication – destroying the flu in just a single day.

Can this drug substitute Tamiflu and how quickly can this happen, expert comments?

Regards,
Yogansh Jeswani
Disclosure: Invested

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USFDA Approved? If not will take 6 months to one year, if the company has good track record on approvals, no plant issues

Another block buster Natco has in pipeline is gRevlimid , though we have to wait until 2022, if Dr Reddys wins patent against Celgene, it will be a huge game changer for Natco (Natco can launch early??). This drug has more than $5.80B sales in 2015 if you see expected 2022 sales , it is mind blowing growth, hoping dots get connected sooner than 2022. Here is the link, pls check. https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/revlimid-1

Let’s see how it unfolds.

Invested in Natco…

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