Natco launching 180 day exclusive drug pomalyst sales value 3.2 billion dollars, I think this is the surprise natco has given and hence it’s up 20 percent in last one month when overall market is falling.
Bear Case (Aggressive Competition)
Assumptions:
Price erosion: 45%
Generic penetration: 65%
NATCO share: 60% of generic market
Calculation
$1.6B × (1 − 0.45) = $880M
$880M × 65% = $572M (generic market)
$572M × 60% = $343M
Bear Case Revenue: ~$340M
Base Case (Balanced Scenario)
Assumptions:
Price erosion: 35%
Generic penetration: 75%
NATCO share: 60%
Calculation
$1.6B × (1 − 0.35) = $1.04B
$1.04B × 75% = $780M
$780M × 60% = $468M
Base Case Revenue: ~$450–470M
Bull Case (Limited Competition + Strong Uptake)
Assumptions:
Price erosion: 25%
Generic penetration: 85%
NATCO share: 60%
Calculation
$1.6B × (1 − 0.25) $1.2B
$1.2B × 85% = $1.02B
$1.02B × 60% = $612M
Bull Case Revenue: ~$600–620M
Lets see which ways it goes, but its going to contribute good in FY27 it seems and I feel they will grow the revenue and not decline. Let see Q4 concall for more clarity.