Yesterday I took at train to Ahmedabad on a Shatabdi. Along with many other things, the Indian railways provided us with a 200ml pack of Mango Sip. I started working the maths, one train is worth about approx Rs2cr (1500 passengers * 2 trips * 2 break journeys * 330* 10) of annual sales and there are 26 Shatabdi trains. Now I haven’t been on any other Shatabdi trains, but if its there on others, it works out to Rs50cr pa of sales.
However, on the trains stalls the availability wasn’t really spectacular. There at some places, but not there at many other places. Can’t really make any judgement.
Also, saw several such advertisements:
Honestly, I think there is v limited capability to judge how much they sell by trying to figure out visually.
They reported sales of Rs148cr in 3QFY18. That amounts Rs1.6cr sales per day or about 8.2l units per day (Rs20/avg price). Now in this vast country of ours we have 712 districts with an average population of 17l. So it means that if they sell 11,000 units per day in each of the districts per day penetrating about 0.5% of the population, they can show such numbers. But honestly, this is all number juggling. And on paper, hence the potential is phenomenal.
However, if the new auditor sign off without an qualification, does it mean its fully clean? Who knows? The plants surely are on ground. They have almost Rs1200-1300cr book, they can doubles sales in 2-3yrs… Investing is never easy.