I performed some calculations on adoption of natural gas in the mega regions of Shanghai and Beijing.
Mumbai and Beijing/ Shanghai bear a lot of similarities in their population and gross domestic product.
I tried to comprehend trend of natural gas access in Shanghai and Beijing over the years. And we can possibly extrapolate the trend.
In the year 2000, Shanghai had a population of 1.4 crores and Beijing had a population 1.2 crores.
19.25% of the population had access to natural gas in Beijing and around 2% of the population had access to natural gas in Shanghai.
In 2012, Shanghai had a population of 2.3 crores and Beijing had a population of around 2 crores.
55% of the population in Shanghai had access to natural gas while 66% of the population of Beijing had access to natural gas in 2012.
On the provincial level natural gas access hovers around 25% and on the national level natural gas access is 15.7%.
Jaingsu, the province, with a 44000 kilometres natural gas pipeline network, the largest in China in 2012, had an adoption of less than 30%.
Let’s restrict our comparison to Beijing and Shanghai.
Let’s consider the average of these regions.
Mumbai Metropolitan Region population - 3 crores
Considering 60.5% people switch to natural gas=1.81 crores
Per capita expenditure on gas- Rs 70/ month
Total= Rs 1520 crores
But, let’s also keep in mind that it took 13 years in Beijing for access to natural gas to increase from 19.25% to 66%.
Despite the growth in China’s economy over the years natural gas access continues to be low in most parts of the country.
And, in my humble opinion, the same will occur in India.
The transition to natural gas will be a process that’ll take years to fructify.
And, in my limited understanding, it’ll be a largely urban phenomenon.