Kitex Garments Limited

Actually, there are 3 emtities -
Toys R Us,
Toys R Us Canada., and
Kids R Us logistics.

So if u see Kids r Us Logistics is covered in KGL (with and without Infants filter).
Bank of America shipments have stopped from around start of 2014 i think.

You can get the estimated USD value of the shipment if the user has a paid subscription (PRO).

However, i do agree one needs a 2nd source (like zauba) of confirmation or even better a 3rd source to have a triangulation as advised by @varadharajanr.

PS: The attached excel has shipment data till June 9th, 2016. You can cross-check the charts with the excel if folks don’t want to create an account.

Regards.

I thought your chart showed minuscule quantities against all three - some 47K Kg vs 3572K kgs of Gerber. Whereas we are told ToysRUs billing was $24 Mn plus, if I remeber correctly

Agree… there is a mismatch.
Toys R Us shipments were in 2014 - 9436 kg
Another one in 2015 - 17,777 kg

Kids R Us is in 2010 - 19,920 kg

Either ways, i am tapped out with the limits.
Probably others could visit the company profile of Toys R Us and cross check the data.

Will try to search for similar portals.

Updates:
@Donald Important point to note is that the portal only provides ocean freight data.
If Kitex also happens to deliver through air frieght, then that data would not be captured by Panjiva.

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Being a banker who lends for working capital requirements I can say that we would definitely look at the group’s debt position before lending to any entity in that group, especially if it were as perilious as being said. Further if the promoters were staking everything and giving personal collateral and all, then we would prefer that it were done in an already operating entity rather than take the risk of funding a new co.

I concede that I don’t have the full background and circumstances. Just thought of putting in my view because the above doesn’t add up.

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@Donald - As required, have compiled the data for Kitex and other players - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PhuHCWaXxcDtNyv8HHd_f2YG0VrrfD8-2vvfE_sRwkI/edit?usp=sharing

While doing this exercise my respect grew for Kitex - many of the other players have several plants, more customers, products, more management bandwidth etc. Kitex has the best in class efficiency and profitability + lowest debt equity. The difference is really wide. But yes, as you say, that is past…we need to think about future.

On the possible aggressive expansion being done by others and market share being taken away - the maximum expansion is being done by Jay Jay but even after expansion it will be much smaller than Kitex? Also, Looking at the revenue of Jay Jay vs the no of pieces it does, i feel they must be doing several other things (may be children garments…which leads to higher realization). It also needs to be seen that how many can execute the expansion they talk about (Kitex has also been talking of doubling the production since some years)…they will have to face the problem (of managing labor) which we have feared for Kitex?

Have shared the google link so that the incremental data can be added and we can improve the sheet.

Thanks to @yogansh for collaborating on this sheet.

Regards,
Ayush

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@Donald - a friend messaged me the H1FY16 nos Jay Jay Mills from the credit report…the company has done 671 Cr of sales and hence has become bigger than Kitex :smile: So your concern needs more attention :smile:

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Thought you already knew that. Why did you think I was worried?
Someone had mailed across 1HFY16 the numbers - think it was OM

Had a good discussion today with a senior industry person. Will update tomorrow

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Sorry to jump in w/o reading the thread in full.

Just googled the no. of babies born in USA per year to see how the market size would increase/decrease over time. No. of babies born seems to be stable at 3.5-4 million babies born per year over a long time -

Disc: not invested (as of now).

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Some salient points from yesterday’s discussion with a senior industry professional - with hands-on experience both on the the sourcing side and the manufacturing side in India - for large buyers and large manufacturers of infant-wear in India.

  1. if you are to talk about focused infant-wear players - its good to focus on the Top 4 - Jay Jay Mills, Best Corp, Kitex and First Step. There are other good players too in the Tirupur belt too notably - SP Apparels, Jupiter India, Prime-Tex - but their infant-wear segment sales/focus is smaller.

  2. Relationships matter, but in today’s cut-throat environment where Retailers are under tremendous pressure, what matters in the end is the Product/Costing

  3. In Infant wear, there’s a Volumes Market and a Fashion/Value market. It is facing the demands of fast-fashion dynamics & complexity - and demands adaptability/flexibility from Manufacturers to changing requirements.

  4. From a Sourcers viewpoint - Kitex and Jay Jay are better at mass volumes segment - offering the best price points. In the fashion/value but lower volume segments, Best Corp and First-Step score better.

  5. Anyone sourcing for EU market - Jay Jay scores heavily because of its Bangladesh subsidiary - there’s a 14.5 % advantage including duty drawback of 10%. Tesco, Mothercare are very big customers. Capacity must be much north of 100 Mn pieces annually, including the 3 subsidiaries.

  6. Best Corp’s advantage it is the most vertically integrated. It starts from Yarn, fabric processing, garmenting. After inner wear, infant wear is its big segment. Also supplies majorly to EU market. Capacity may be around 65-70 Mn pieces annually

  7. KItex strength is the mass volumes segment - it can offer the best price points there. Its fabric is also probably slightly better. It probably scores low on adaptability for lower volume/higher value product requirements. Capacity may be around 80-85 Mn pieces annually. Its difficult to know exactly because it includes fabric sales in figures (no separate figures for garments?). KItex mostly services 3 large US customers like Gerber, ToysRUs, and TCP. EU customers like Mothercare, TESCO have majorly scaled down and so have Carter and Kohl’s.

  8. First-Step has also scaled up consistently. Capacity should be touching 75-80 Mn garments with the latest expansion. Their advantage is the in-house designs offered. That helps knock off a few cents for the Retailer and offers choices. Besides they have a domestic brand of their own they are building up. Product quality is very good. They are also now embarking on fabric processing plant.

  9. Kitex US Market foray - may be a good thing. But one needs to be cautious here. Lamaze is a known brand but did very little volumes in the last many years. A fresh investor in the Brand (Kitex) would always bring fresh ideas & money. But no transformation in any brand’s fortunes happens overnight. How deep-rooted is the money? Where will it come from?

  10. When you play only the manufacturing game, you capture only 30% of the End Value, so it’s tempting to think there is so much more money to be made if I expand into Retail. One should not forget though that the front-end is a much tougher game with complex/fast changing dynamics, and high risks. The best retailers in the world do not have more than 10-12% Margins!!

Apart from Royalty, and Sales, Marketing, Design Team salaries & overheads - one needs to think of other costs like shelf-space booking costs at retailers, penalties for slow or lower off-takes. And then the unsold-Inventory costs - what doesn’t sell is costs padded back - its like the costs climb to 60% - you know what I mean? I don’t know the Kitex business model for Retail entry, but these are the things we should wonder about and ask questions.

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Though it is not right to clone somebody, Prof might have done his homework before buying .Further, averaging down may be showing the strong conviction he has got for the stock.

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Suppose the AUM under Prof increases, it may be the case that the fund needs to deploy additional AUM just to keep allocations same for new money/new investors?

I would like to seek a clarification from the community members of a minor issue
Sabu Jacob in the Q4FY16 concall mentioned that the company had forward booked $18 million worth of dollars in the forward market. However the annual report clearly mentions that there are no derivatives contract outstanding. Does this mean that the company was not telling the truth about its forward contract or am I missing something ??

Hi, If it is mentioned as derivative contract then it is fine. As derivative contract is different than forward contract. Had company entered into currency option / future contract, it is derivative contract.

Cabinet has approved concessions to boost manufacturing and exports in textile sector
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/govt-approves-sops-to-boost-textiles-manufacturing-exports_6909021.html

They changed the content in the link :stuck_out_tongue:

Let’s move on to examining the Lamaze US business.

There is near unanimity among Kitex-interested folks that this is a good thing. They have certainly made the right moves so far. They solved the massive “Branding”/Advertising challenge by in-licensing the Lamaze brand which already occupies target customer mindshare. They also solved a big hurdles of Marketing and Design Teams stewardship by making astute key hires. If they can pull this off, the future sure looks exciting, to most - after all this is a big thing, if a manufacturer can vertically integrate right upto Retail.

What I have been unable to figure out for myself is the Lamaze business model proposed to be followed by Kitex.

1.If it is a branded retail business, then Kitex would be looking to book shelf space at the preferred retailers, paying the going rate per week/month along with a minimum guaranteed off-take. If Sales fall short of the guarantee then there penalties to be paid. Any unsold Inventory, is also a very big additional risk, if your product does not sell well.

Yes, there is that 70% extra upside to capture but these are the Risks that counterbalance pocketing all the moolah for yourself.

2.I am not sure this is the retail foray model being adopted, otherwise there wouldn’t be that mention - We organised a show called our Customers. Gerber and Carter have already placed orders. If I heard correctly in one of the Concalls, Management did say there is no Inventory Risk for us. Our Sales guys go and take orders from customers, accordingly we manufacture and ship.

3.If that really is the model, then what is so exciting about the Lamaze business. Kitex LLC is just replacing the importer middleman. Since it is not taking in any retail shelf space risk/inventory risk, then the upsides have to be limited to the Importers margin. It’s hard to see why this should be anything more than 10%

4.So the 40 Cr Lamaze Sales or say $6Mn Sales in Fy17 or $50 Mn in FY19/20 - all of them will come from Customer orders procured by Kitex Salesmen from existing Customers on the plank of Product/Quality pull of Lamaze??

Highly unlikely that the business plan rests on scaling upto $50Mn without Kitex taking on some of the Sales Incentives/Risks.

5.It seems equally unlikely that Kitex will take on all the risks to capture the full 70% upsides right from start. We need to remember except for Carter and ToysRUs most Retailers are struggling for profitability. Gerber has changed hands many times. Mothercare has seen repeated troubles. The best retailers do not have more than 10-12% profitability

What makes us think when all these players with decades in the business haven’t been able to pull off a spectacular success with all their scale, why would a fledgling foray like Kitex’s make for huge success/profitability

6.It might be there is a hybrid model being pursued. Initial orders are being procured through Customer orders - based on which Kitex can manufacture say 2x those volumes and take a risk with their own Retail shelf-space/inventory risk model.

I couldn’t attend the AGM. The Lamaze Concall and the latest Concall does not throw light on the same. So if anyone has the answers to this puzzle, please stop forward to answer.

Meanwhile it will be a good thing to approach Management to get answers on this, as well as their reaction to the Competition scenario/positioning map that we are becoming clearer about.

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Hello Donald,

From what I understand they intend to use direct marketing channels such as online marketplaces and e-tailers to sell Lamaze and Little Star clothes.

Following is the evidence based on which I am making the above assertion:

Kitex’s original plan was to launch the brand in Fall 2016. However, after signing the licensing agreement, the management decided to launch in February 2016 through the online route.
Through the brand tie-up and of achieving the minimum guarantee (in fact, it believes it can achieve double of what is committed as the minimum guarantee) with royalty rates at ~5% of sales.
Most of the products manufactured under the Lamaze brand will be made-to-order and inventory risk will not be borne by Kitex.

Source: MoSL Q1FY16 report

2nd source of confirmation (from a non-brokerage source)

His plans include venturing into direct marketing in the USA by first selling through licensed brand Lamaze and then their own brand ‘Little Star’ through its American subsidiary, Kitex USA LLC by
2016. Sabu had been dealing with the US market and its vendors for several years and he felt it was time to leverage that know-how and experience to grow Kitex.
Sources:
Page 25 - http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-eoy-2015-magazine/$FILE/ey-eoy-2015-magazine.pdf
Page 9 - http://www.namam.org/admin/brochure/2016NAMAMAwardsSouvenir.pdf

From the AR:

Secured manufacturing and distribution license for “Lamaze” Brand for childrenswear in US & Canada.

Correct me if I have come to a wrong conclusion in the below 2 points:

  • Kitex would not be buying retail space shelf (most likely).
  • Any online order placed for a Lamaze product either through an e-tailer or other marketplaces would be routed to Kitex for delivery (as I understand this was done previously by Gerber as a middleman)

Another interesting bit of information, which I came across was:

By opening a new office, the company proposes to change over from F.O.B to L.D.P terms which will be more attractive to buyers and will aim for additional profits to accrue to the company.
http://elitewealth.in/Admin/docs/Kitex%20Garments%20Limited.pdf

Since LDP has the higher margin than even CIF, this should also help with the increase in margins.

Concise note for those not aware of FOB, CIF or LDP (including me before this post :slight_smile:) - http://www.walkerchb.com/WCB%20COMMON%20TERMS%20OF%20SALE.pdf

Although, I still am at a loss to explain the absence of inventory risk.
Even if the Lamaze orders are “made to order”, the online customers would expect a delivery in say 3-5 days which would imply Kitex would need to keep some stock available at hand.

If the above conclusions are correct with respect to direct marketing channels, then it would seem Sabu Jacob has come to the same conclusion as you about the declining profitability of brick-and-mortar retailers, and he is ready to embrace the digital route with e-tailers.

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Sabu Jacob’s interview today on the new Textile Policy

Also an excellent summary of the key points of the policy by @rohanadvant

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=146416

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Hi Vishnu,
Thanks again for taking up the investigation enthusiastically.
It is true that Ecommerce Sales are growing the fastest in US market (~20%) as opposed to Wholesale sales (2-3%) and Retail sales (3-4%). However eCommerce is still a very small portion of the overall sales for the best in the business. Carter Ecommerce Sales for Fiscal year ended Jan2, 2016 was 315.57 Mn ( Both Carter+OShKosh) of total $3014 Mn Sales. or roughly 10.5% only, at similar levels as its International Sales.
http://ir.carters.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=135392&p=irol-reportsannual

So, it is very unlikely that entirety of Kitex Lamaze Sales would be strategised through Ecommerce, or that even it is aimed as a primary stream. Ecommerce Sales are an offshoot of the brand-pull at retailers and wholesalers. Otherwise every private labeler with a quality product, would happily sell only through Ecomerce, that clearly isn’t the case. There has to be participation in wholesale store sales and retail store sales as a quicker route to customer mindshare. My educated guess would be Ecommerce sales for Kitex Lamaze should be below 10% of annual sales projections.

Remember that the company mentioned pre-orders from Carter & Gerber in AGM, after calling several retailers to a show at Kitex Office. What is the need for that if Ecommerce sales is the primary route?

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You are right Donald, i don’t think e-commerce sale would be more than 20%.
I think Lamaze sale through like Gerber, carter and may be through e-commerce also bcoz they positioning Lamaze as Organic product.

As per my understanding the process is like:
Kitex India >> Kitex LLP >> Customer

Kitex india book revenue as soon as they ship to Kitex LLP like they ship to other customer. The margin may be same or 1-2% higher side.
Then Kitex LLP sale to customer the margin they get will book in Kitex LLP account and that will may reflect in Kitex consolidated account.

welcome your views