Goverment has already started implementing safety standards after incident of fire incident of Evs.That is one of the reason why battery growth has been slow - as mentioned by kabra.
As long as EV vehicles continue to innovate with technology, batteries will be upgraded along with it - as its one of the most critical technology in it . There isn’t an end game here - as per my opinion.
Below is the Link of interview by Anand Kabra, where he mentions that dimensional standards are possible for swoping station ( Niti Ayog has proposed it as well - only dimensional standards ) , however since every 4 wheeler ( and for that matter even 2 wheelers ) wants to provide superior model, there can’t be a universal standard in this sector as it takes away their ability to innovate.
Since expected demand is projected to grow at 53% ( from existing 6 GWh to 104 GWh by 2030 ) there is ample room for every one to grow.
Having said that, the company which will adopt themselves fast with changing needs of the OEM will be a big winner here in my view.
Always open to a different views. Lets learn togather.
Understanding Sodium-ion batteries with Dr. Yashodhan Gokhale - CTO at Batrixx - Kabra extrusion
● In 5 years time Sodium-ion battery may match or even go below LFP (lithium ion phosphate ) batteries price. - if & when moves to giga scale level.
● Production cost will be lower too.Machinery & process may remains same. Composition changes.
● Experiment going on in different ways by various companies to manufacturer sodium iron batteries.
● Bigger challenge in india is a skilled manpower, as we haven’t made giga factories in india yet.
My view - By appointing highly experienced CTO, Kabra is indicating that, it doesn’t want to be left behind on innovation part and that’s a sign of a good things to come -
One has to remember that its Mcap is
1400 cr - includes extrusion business
( not even a smallcap company yet )
Disc: Invested from lower levels and added more recently. Biased view.
Poor result by kabra extrusion. High Margin pressure.
However, Silver lining is the topline growth of battery devision ( there was degrowth in last 2 quaters ).
Also company has turned into Cashflow positive in H1. H2 last year was negative.
Company believes that E2 wheeler industry is at an infection point.
Also they Plan to enter E3 & E4 wheeler & E light commercial vehicles by Q4 this FY.
I think Kabra Extrusion is a pure momentum play and with the subsidies removed from EV 2 wheelers, the industry growth has come down to 20%. The huge tail winds are gone and hence the stock no longer justifies the 40 PE valuation.
