Thanks @bheeshma.
@Mehnazfatima can you provide your comments on the charts?
Just trying put facts that will determine sector performance for next couple of years .Please add your points as well to Co-Pro list.
Pros
*Focus of central government to setup wind parks.
*Growing demand from PSUâs , IPPâs and State governments
*Seeing continous improvement in WTG technology to improve efficiencies in even low wind sites
*Accelerated Depreciations
*Interstate Electricity grid infrastructure developing rapidly
*Plenty of Available land bank
*
*
Cons
*Uncertainty over GST rates
*Confusion over ending PPA prematurely to do away with high feed in rates
*GBI has ended
*
*
I am more interested in signals from long term charts. I find these signals to be quite powerful and effective for long term holding. As can be seen from the Quarterly chart of suzlon, there is a turnaround in momentum indicator. I am expecting a big green price bar on quarterly charts either in this quarter or the next quarter. Usually in such cases the high point of the price bar is twice the low point of that price bar.
That explains my technical outlook for Suzlon for the next 2-3 quartersâŚI am quite bullish on itâŚBUT what happens in the short term, is not something that bothers me very much. In the short term, the stock may go up or go down or move sidewaysâŚI will be glad with a big green price bar on quarterly charts in the next 1-2 quarters⌠for the record my expectations from suzlon for next 4-6 quarters are quite high.
Just a reminder to myself. I have this note that is synced to my calendar and pops up every 15 days.
âTechnical analysis has a tendency to suck you into it. It is highly arbitrary and often gives you a feeling of false intellectual capability. Remember nothing can replace a good business. The more time you spend analyzing prices the less time you have to do the other meaningful research that mattersâ
90% of whatever time you have to spend on investing should be devoted to dogged good old fashioned research. If you feel a bit sinful, technical analysis is always there for a short daydream 
I would like to end with a few lines from this immortal song from Lataji
Ajib trend -a- line hain ye
kahan shuru kahan khatam
ye reversal hain kaunsi
na woh samaj sake na hum
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Common messages coming from almost all analysts. Ventura Research is giving a target of 42 by FY20. There is more good for the wind energy companies in India than bad at the moment. Since Suzlon is a turnaround story, it deserves a re-rating - higher returns to compensate for the higher risk. Besides with its technology and global presence, it has higher growth prospects in the long run. The reassurance comes from the fact that they have a workable plan this time with all the macros in support. If the plan works, then it should regain the momentum it had in 2006-2008 dwarfing the conservative target of 42 by a huge margin. I am waiting for the CDR exit which has been delayed by a few months. I have a gut feeling (can be wrong) that the event might act as a trigger for a trajectory change in momentum. Though I want myself to be wrong and would like to see a momentum shift after Q417 numbers itself.
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Very true, If only I had a rupee for every rupee I lost for relying solely on technical analysis, Iâd be a rich man!! 
Hello all, this is my first post in VP forums. I have briefly dabbled in TA. I have minimal experience in Fundamental analysis, and that lacunae I aspire to rectify through this forum and you wonderful people.
I totally endorse Bheeshmaâs statement. TA can be fascinating and devastating at the same time.
Yet canât resist posting my tech analysis of Suzlon. I feel breakout is noted with initial resistance around 20.79.
However, going by my past experience, I will only invest if this is supported by fundamentals and good news.
Disc - planning to enter above 21.
I entered around 13 levels because of TA (Triangle breakout). I am staying now because of fundamentals. There is very good debt reduction and whatever is left (although big at around 6k odd Crores) is long term debt. Working capital cycle is improving. Q4 should be pretty good. CDR Exit will be a big positive. De-merging SE Forge and their maintenance business will improve debt situation drastically and make their books better. Your view of entering above 21 may not be a bad one as its currently stuck in the 20 limbo.
Risks:
- Order book visibility not great.
- FCCB conversions are going to keep diluting equity constantly
- Margins are shrinking in Renewables due to over-aggressive reverse auctions in both Wind and Solar.
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Note - this post is purely for educational purposes and a followup of my previous post. I am not invested in Suzlon
Suzlon is turning out to be a candlestick chartist dream come true. After forming a bearish evening star it has formed a harami.
Harami is japanese for pregnant. This pattern consists of a white/black body and a small white/black body that is completely inside the range of the white/black body. If an outline is drawn for the pattern, it looks like a pregnant woman. The color doesnt matter in harami patterns. What matters is where the price break is after the pattern is formed.
Since the pattern has formed near its 2 mth uptrend and the harami has been preceded by an evening star i am inclined to believe that the break will be downward.
Lets see what happens tomorrow and learn from it!
The chart for your reference - views are invited
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I canât say I understand candlestick patterns much but if you go by simple price-action, doesnât todayâs candle simply reject yesterdayâs? Yesterdayâs open was 20.10 and close was 19.80, low was 19.75 - bears won. But today, open was 19.90 (rejecting yesterday low and also yesterdayâs close), low was at 19.80 (higher low and same as yesterdayâs close) and close was at 20.00 - bulls won. This close is higher than both last two candleâs close. I donât see how you are calling this as a breakdown from the uptrend. If anything, it should be trend continuation going by simple logic? What am I missing?
I am not calling it a breakdown but a sign of an impending one. In candlesticks a harami gives âbirthâ to a new trend
In my humble opinionâŚTodayâs harami nullifies the bearish effect of yesterdayâs long red candlestick. We are now back to neutral zone. The stock can now move up or down or sideways.
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I guess this harami is on daily charts so the triangle breakout we got on monthly charts remains very much in play.
Well investors in suzlon need not worry. The candlestick pattern has failed. Failed bearish patterns are more bullish than bullish patterns themselves ( and failed bullish patterns are more bearish than bearish ones ).
Investors would be well advised to keep one basic rule in mind - its not what the prices do that matters, its what they do after they dont. So always wait for a break.
DLF Ltd is a good example of this where i saved myself a lot of monetary pain simply by waiting for a break.
Also i cant underline enough the importance of having a bearish mindset in a bullish market.
The mind sees what it wants to see in pattern recognition. While tracking prices in a stock moving in an uptrend i actively look for bearish signals to the point of obsession and i completely disregard the bullish ones. I have found that it is a realistic & a rational way to look at prices and leads to making fewer mistakes. If the stock is in a real uptrend there will be a lot of dead bearish patterns.
In general however, i love bearishness in TA. Anything that has the potential to make you lose money should be an object of your attention.
Disc- invested
All the best
Bheeshma
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Vice versa too. Its the bullishness (contrarian bet) in a bearish stock that makes real money. Probably its time for you too to take a small position in Suzlon 
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Suzlon sees wind energy auctions squeezing margins as market grows
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Rational exuberance is in the air
Suzlon renews 399-MW U.S. wind service portfolio
Suzlon Wind Energy Corp (SWECO)
announced a long-term renewal of a 399-MW wind portfolio that consists
of four sites in three U.S. states for the Suzlon S88 turbine
technology.
According to SWECO, the O&M contracts were renewed in January
2017 for a period of six years with EDP Renewables North America (EDPR). The project names were not released.
âWe were pleased to renew these contracts with Suzlon and are looking
forward to a continued partnership, delivering consistent performance
at those projects,â said Gabriel Alonso, EDPR NA CEO.
Source: http://www.windpowerengineering.com/slider/suzlon-renews-399-mw-u-s-wind-service-portfolio/
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