@Shikhar Any chance you checked NALCO Chart too?
1 How are HDFC Life and HDFC AMC as 5 year investments ? Oppurtunity size seems big but am only concerned with steep valuation and also about HDFC AMC whose fees has been capped , so how much does it affect earning power ? Another thing is what kind of moat does both these companies enjoy ? Also does a company in order to enjoy moat need to be a market leader or am i missing something ?
2 How is page industries at current levels for same 3 to 5 year period ? It has great distribution network and can this be expected to grow at 20 percent annually in coming 5 years ? Can this be considered a better compounding business compared to pidilite ?
3 Apart from discounted cashflow, what other valuation methods can be used ?
4 Is technical understanding a must for deciding entry levels for fundamental long term debt and what source do you recommend to learn for the same ? I tried reading many post here on technical charts like head and shoulder pattern etc but didnt understand most of it frankly .
Many thanks Hitesh bhai.
In another thread I had put up hdfc life and hdfc amc as long term picks. I feel the runway for both of them remains long and with a strong promoter, there should be comfort in holding for long term. AMC business can be prone to disruption but I feel disruption if it has to come could still be a few years away and in country like India the penetration of MF is quite low and can only increase with time. About valuations, I think it would be futile to comment as at the end of the day beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder. And if one wants to buy for next 5 years he can stagger the purchases for next 5-7 months to take the help of market gyrations.
Page and Pidilite I would put in the same basket. Both seem to be great compounders. But here again one has to be patient in acquiring and take care not to buy too close to the top.
I dont use DCF. There are plenty of valuation methods. You need to read few basic books and you would get a fair idea. We have threads on VP on the subject of valuation as well.
Technicals is not everyone’s cup of tea. People like Buffett, Lynch who have never followed technicals have made tons of money. But on the flip side, if one looks at the list of guys who have compounded wealth at astounding rates for long periods of time a lot of guys in the list who feature are those who follow technicals.
Reading posts on technicals on VP should only awaken the “keeda” of technicals in you and should lead you to books on technicals. One book I am reading currently is Technical analysis explained by Martin Pring and its a very useful and practically applicable book. Easy to read and understand. I have finished 3-4 chapters and found it interesting to read.
Basically one needs to read books on any subject be it fundamentals or technicals and then figure out whether its applicable or not. If it interests you you can read it multiple times to grasp the maximum knowledge from it.
Thank you so much Hiteshbhai for the valuable guidance as always. Got motivated to study technicals from your post .
It may be worth your while to check out Apcotex - post Omnova purchase in 2016
Love to hear your comments
Hi Hitesh, can you pls advise between VIP and Safari? VIP market cap is growing fast , can that help choose between both the companies
Hitesh bhai, I would like to know your views on Kaya ltd. as it seems to be managed by good promoters and with good business model, no debt on books and currently ruling price looks attractive to me.
As you are from the same field (Derm) your views on this one matters a lot more !!
True renaissance technology has compounded wealth by 70% cagr over astounding 20 years
Fundamental guys can never come close to 70% return continuously for 20 years
This fund is the best fund ever
I dont track Kaya too closely but feel the much awaited shift from unorganised to organised in the field of cosmetic dermatology is not coming soon. Here the patient is more comfortable with the doctor who is treating him/her even for procedures. Kaya people wherever I have seen have not been able to match the private doctors in services or even in inspiring confidence about treatment procedures among patients.
Even numbers dont inspire too much confidence. Topline has been stuck in a range of 400 crores since 3 years and profits are still awaited at net level as company keeps posting losses.
@anikum I dont track either of the two companies viz VIP or safari.
@ausking I had a look at apcotex inds and seems a good company. Would need to work more on it to get a better idea.
Sir do you track “Polycab india”?? Everything seems good for long term.
Renaissance Technologies is formed by Mathematician James Simons and he assembled scientists, PHDs and also work on proprietary algorithms inaccessible to others.
Even after huge fees his funds continue to do well
Also he learnt his lessons from downfall of LTCM.
@hitesh2710 Hitesh sir, wanted to get your thoughts on PNB Housing Finance and its recent meltdown to INR 780 range. Its relatively stable stock (not an outright outperformed but has decent financials). It has decreased substantially due to stake sell by its parent PNB to manage its capital adequacy. There seems to be no other adverse factors around it. Should we play this as a short term aberration and enter at dips ? Pls let us know. Many thanks
@hitesh2710 Hi Hitesh bhai ,
1 Have read online about looking at economic profits instead of accounting profits for ascertaining investment. How to calculate the same and how does one differ from the other ? How important is it , according to you as i believe you have the ability to separate things that are actually practically required from many theoretically suggested things or books.
2 would like to know what books you would like to recommend , both investment related and not related . As per your recommendation, I have read one up on wall street and pat dorseys book ( almost read except the industry specific chapters ) and found them to be awesome .
PNB HF has been a big underperformer in terms of price action from the housing finance basket. Stock price has been close to 52 week lows while the market is at all time high. Value investors might fancy it quoting cheap valuations and the fact that stock price has corrected a lot and is available at near 52 week low etc. And they might at some point of time be proven right.
But for me investing in companies going down consistently is not a lot of fun. I would like to see some strength in the company before taking a call.
Fundamental wise the growth rates have been very high. While this may be a good thing one must remember that in businesses like housing finance, its very easy to hide NPAs and NPAs are usually back loaded.
I used to own it a few quarters back but got unnerved by the price action inspite of a string of what seemed like good results and exited.
Owner earnings include reported earnings plus depreciation plus amoritisation minus maintenance capex. This concept was floated by WB in his annual letter to shareholders in 1986. You can find more details by reading the letter. In fact if you are interested in what he teaches it might be a good idea to read up all his annual shareholders letters. You will be able to find them free on the web.
Regarding which books to read, you can follow the threads available on valuepickr on investment books and their reviews posted by fellow boarders.
Hello Hitesh Bhai,
Have you been tracking Natco Pharma Lately ?
The stock is hitting new 52wk lows recently after announcement of their foray into niche Agrochemicals space.
@hitesh2710 Hi Hiteshbhai how does vguard compare with Havells ? Should one hold both or one is better off holding only Havells as a play on electrical appliances (consumer durables) and electrification theme ? What kind of moat do these enjoy ? Many thanks
Hitesh sir, how do you rate Alembic Pharma and Ajanta pharma for investment ? Both of them have good R&D investments for past 2-3 years, working on large size Capex plans and have manageable debts ? Looking at their current price, they seem to be decently priced. Pls let us know your thoughts. Many thanks
Not tracking natco pharma. But when a company which is in a niche segment of oncology decides to foray into agrochemicals space Its something surprising. Would need to monitor how they make progress in their new foray.