Hitesh portfolio

(Hitesh Patel) #3101


Gold has finished its big multiwave rally as can be seen from the meteoric rise from 200- 300 usd in 1999 to around 1800 usd in 2013 and is now in a correction. A rally that goes on for 14 years will take atleast half the time i.e 7 years or more to undergo correction. So maybe some more time before we think of another mega rally in gold. From wave structure it seems it has finished first wave down A. Currently it maybe in a wave B up or may have finished. Wave B looks quite weak and if B is finished Wave C can go down a long way.

A strong Wave B reaching very close to the top of preceding wave 5 would indicate that wave C following it might not go down too much. But here it does not seem so but I would give it some more time before taking a call.

(Kumar Saurabh) #3102

Yes @hitesh2710 bhai. Gold must be taken with extreme caution. I remember doing some analysis of 50 year gold data n was surprised there ve been even 20 year duration when CAGR was mere 6% leaving one to ask “How long is really long”. :joy: It was an interesting analysis for me as I never thought distress period can last so long for gold unless saw numbers, will put it in detail sometime

(sushilkc) #3103

@Hitesh2710 Thanks for explaining out the chart for Edelweiss. Please can you share your analysis that how low you expect it togo in this C Wave down and then what kind of price performance can be expected in future.

(Hitesh Patel) #3104


I wish I had that kind of foresight about where correction will end and then where stock will go😊

Better take one step at a time and see when and where the correction ends.

(ASG) #3105

What is your fundamental view on Deep Industries? Would be great if you could share your thoughts on technicals too.

(Ankur Lakhia) #3106

Hitesh bhai,

Price action in private sector financials do not look good. Stock like Edelweiss is firmly below its 200 DMA. Even generally stable stocks like HDFC bank has broken down below its 200 DMA. Bajaj finance is still above its 200 DMA but it has been going down steadily and consistently. All financials with probable exception of Gruh seems to be in trouble from price action point of view.

Against this backdrop of deteriorated price action, factors supporting bull market in private sector financials like credit growth increase with GDP, increasing credit penetration, financialization of savings, shift from public sector to private sector etc are intact.

My dilemma is how to address these two contrasting pictures especially for high quality financials like Bajaj finance, Edelweiss, Piramal, HDFC bank, Gruh etc. Do I ignore price action & continue holding them all & live with pain of falling prices or should I exit from weaker stocks based on price action to live to fight for another day.

How do you see this picture & what would be your preferred course of action in such scenario.

(prakhartheinvestor) #3107

Sir, are you tracking ceramic indusutry?
Asian granito (Asian Tiles) , Kajaria ceramics or any other stock You are finding attractive.

(Hitesh Patel) #3108


I dont follow Deep Inds fundamentally. A look at the charts also validates why it shouldnt be looked at. It has been in a constant downtrend since March 2017 and doesnt seem to show any strength.

(Hitesh Patel) #3109


All these tiles players are suffering from high raw material prices/fuel prices and it seems they cant pass through all of these input costs to customers. Plus real estate market remains in the doldrums.

I had a look at Kajaria Ceramics some time back but there too business momentum seems missing. When things will normalise and protitable growth will return needs to be seen.

(Hitesh Patel) #3110

One book I would urge investor friends to read is Trade like a Stock market wizard by Mark Minervini.

Strictly speaking its not too much about detailed technical analysis but about medium to long term investing in companies with business momentum along with price momentum.

It is very relevant to current market scenario where there are bearish sentiments and what he suggests is to look out for companies and sectors which show a lot of relative strength and dont correct much or are going up and making new fresh all time highs and 52 week highs. Another thing he mentions which a lot of other guys too maintain is to look out for companies which start making fresh highs coming out of bear markets.

Concept wise its very similar to the Next Apple book but the explanation in terms of narrative is slightly different.

This whole concept is totally opposite to the traditional value investing where the idea is to look for mispriced bets in beaten down stocks/sectors. But pure value investing in my view needs a specific mindset and one has to be comfortable with lot of drawdowns from buy price and be very patient to be rewarded.

(Niranjan Shetty) #3111

Completely agree with you Hitesh, this book completely changed the way I looked at things and a lot stock movements started making sense.

Just a small correction though, its Mark Minnervini :slight_smile:


(raj_libran) #3112

Thanks for the book suggestion Hitesh Sir. In the past I tried reading investment books but was never able to complete reading. Do you read full book or read few essential chapters ? Your advice would be helpful for fellow investors.



(ramanhp) #3113

This is a very interesting point. A dumb query may be - Where can I get data of dally/weekly data on companies at 52 week high or making new highs. thanks.

(Hitesh Patel) #3114


This minervini book is not too lengthy so can be easily read fully. Maybe even worth a reread too. I myself am re reading it after a very fast first read.

I think rather than reading too many books one by one its sometimes better to read a book u find useful multiple times to extract maximum understanding out of it.

(Hitesh Patel) #3115


U can see 52 week high lows in financial daily newspapers. My guess is U can even get them from websites like moneycontrol, smartinvestor.in etc.

(ramanhp) #3116

I am sorry, I should have checked. Found it on Economic Times.

(raj_libran) #3117

Thanks for the advice sir. I have started reading it today. Fortunately got a soft copy on web.


(Karthickphilistines) #3118

Hi Hitesh, Need your opinion on Aarti Drugs? will it get benefit from China shut down…What are the API intermediate companies we should track with China shut down theme?Thanks in Advance

(Hitesh Patel) #3119


I dont track aarti drugs but u can go thru @ankitgupta detailed note he put up in aug 2018 on the aarti drug thread on VP.

(Balusu Aditya) #3120

Hi Hiteshji,

How are you going about rebalancing your portfolio in the current environment? Specifically which stocks are you accumulating and which ones are you exiting? I currently hold significant allocation in MOFSL, BAJAJFINANCE, AVANTI, RAIN, and GUJALKALI. Can you suggest any steps for me to take to optimise future performance?