Hitesh. Thanks. No hard feelings.
vivek,
As biju john mentions correctly, TAKE A CHILL PILLâŚ
the tone was meant to be a joke and hence in hindi also.
And congratulations by the way for the â1 CROREâ returns on your portfolio⌠Hope you keep up the great performance with your incisive knowledge of investing.
regards
hitesh.
Vivek,
Refrain from making personal comments - particularly about recommendations gone wrong and 1 crore.
Manish,
I dunno abt others but last year achievement is a matter of immense pride n satisfaction for me specially coming from my non privileged n totally self made background. Feelings do get hurt inadvertently at times.
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Majority of valuepickr members are selfmade, with no great background including me. But self restrain is what makes you respectful. If you are hurt, you could have communicated directly to Hitesh and sort out the matter. You should have avoided this public outburst. Hope the sanctity prevails.
I have spoken out for the first time in my several years . I have kept quiet earlier Inspite of feelings hurt earlier also due to comments on public forum. Stocks is a passion for me as is for Hitesh. I have highest regards for his skills n have benefitted from them .
Now that green flag has been waived, letâs get back to Hawkins. I think Hawkins is making all the right moves, new induction cooker product, 25% increase in dividend showing managmentâs confidence on growth, new able CFO within family. Looks set for the next ride after the 2 years lull, what say folks?
Any one has done an analysis of potential market cap before the story becomes normal compounding?
Good to see seniors pitched in and brought back sanity to the forum!! Kudos.
I donât see Hawkins items at any prominent store, be it Big Bazar, Spencers, Easy day etc.
Visited a big army CSD canteen today, located in Manesar (city adjacent to Gurgaon). 80% of cooker space is occupied by USHA Shriramâs cooker brand Eurolex (http://www.eurolex.in/) and remaining by other players like United cookers and sunflame. Only Futura Tawa from Hawkins is present there.
if most of big retailers donât sell much of Hawkins and also no presence in Army canteen. Where do Hawkinsâ sales is happening⌠just through smaller shops? Either thereâs a big opportunity or such trend could impact sales going forward.
jagbirji;
If i remember correctly, Mr Vasudev in last years(or previous to that) AGM had mentioned that hawkins entered into understanding with Big bazaar but eventually withdrew from same.
Reason was poorpaymentand strict terms of agreement from Bigbazaar side( which acc to Chairman were one sided).
Hi Jagbir,
Remember from our local scuttlebutt in Nov-2012 in Gurgaon, I posted,
One crucial piece of scuttlebutt, I did in Gurgaon before coming, was this.
There was huge display of Futura Cookware in Spencer and none at all at a BIg Bazaar store (Prestige took lionâs share of all displays in cookware section).
The guy there told me, Big Bazaar does not sell Future cookware (most likely the same margin related issues, discussed in TED earlier). Hence, despite the high pile up of pressure cookers, futura range was conspicuously missing from all big bazaar stores.
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However, what you say about Spencers is quite opposite and if this is across states, is a real cause of concern. Request boarders from other states to do some local scuttlebutt and post here.
Finally got some time to sit with the Hawkins AR today, posted by updates and concerns here along with projections
http://prdntinvestor.blogspot.in/2013/07/stock-update-hawkins-cookers-revisiting.html
The AR mentions, "The long-term vitality in the demand for our brandsa Hawkins, Contura, Futura and Miss Mary a augur well for thefuture of your Company.
Hawkins AR now has very limited information in terms of productions/capacity etc. As observed from past ARs there are five broad categories with varying margins :
- In house production of Pressure Cookers, Domestic Sales (Futura, Hawkins)
- In house production of Pressure Cookers, Export (only Futura)
- Mostly outsourced production of pressure cookers, domestic sales (Miss Mary)
- Other smaller items, in house production, replacements (idly stands, replacements)
- Fully outsourced production, cookwares (Futura) - domestic sales & exports
If anyone can point towards specific capacity/utilization and contribution of above segments in Sales and PAT we can come out with more specific projections.
thanks rudra for the effort in trying to forecast sales and profit figures for fy 14 and fy 15 in a logical manner.
Usually hawkins tends to defy logic and its very difficult to predict numbers.
Lets see how this exercise pans out.
I also tend to broadly concur with you in terms of my expectations from hawkins for next couple of years.
Today had a visit with the dealer in bangalore. Dealer said he was not facing any demand issue. There were supply issues earlier which has been considerably improved, but still need to improve. The supply needs to be on time to make use of the demand scenarios. He said because of which competitor products were getting sold. He vouched for the fact that âhawkins is the best in the industry, for people like him - very ethical, organized and honest.â He also mentioned that competitors are no match for hawkins. He said he would not compare the quality of hawkins product with TTK prestige as he said hawkins is way ahead.
He also said that hawkins had a new model of cooker very suitable for induction and other modes. He was not aware of any new models being introduced in this year. The dealer had cookers/cookwares stocked.
However whenever i visit malls - Birla More, Auchen, Lifestyle etc i could not see much of hawkins products.In some places the quantity is very few.
Also in the website i could see that the dealers have been increased even in north east.
I get the feeling that if the management becomes dynamic and aggressive in identifying the new opportunities and patch up the existing gaps, this company could be interesting.
By the way today I visited Hypermarket in Meenakshi mall, Bangalore. There I could see good stock of HawkinsâŚoutnumbering Prestige in cooker. However, cookware items from unknown brands were filled up.
TTK Q1/Fy 13-14 Results outâŚ
Total Income FLAT @ 306.33 Cr v/s 302.53 Cr.
EBIDTA DOWN 12.6% to 41.37 Cr from 47.31 Cr.
Net Profit DOWN 15.9% to 25.79 Cr from 30.68 Cr.
EBIDTA margin is 13.5% v/s 15.2% (MQ-13) and 15.6% (JQ-12)
NET Profit margin is 8.4% v/s 9.9% (MQ-13) and 10.1% (JQ-12)
Total Raw material costs as a %ge to Income is 58.3% v/s 58.1% (MQ-13) and 57.2% (JQ-12)
Employee costs to Income is 7.2% v/s 6.8% (MQ-13) and 6.7% (JQ-12)
Other expenses to Income is 21% v/s 20% (MQ-13) and 20.5% (JQ-12)
Financial costs to EBIT is 7.9% v/s 6.6% (MQ-13) and 6.9% (JQ-12)
Tax Rate 31.5% v/s 27.6% (MQ-13) and 30% (JQ-12)
ttk down 6% and hawkins flat. the poor results of ttk is because of overall slowdown in consumption or increased production from hawkins (gaining back the lost market share) or both
decrease in PAT is maybe because of high import by TTK coupled with depreciating rupee
RM cost has gone up by 32%. in fact ttk manufactures less than what they outsource compared to hawkins, so in case of hawkins the RM requirement will be more. they have taken 7% price hike in aprilâ13, aluminium prices have come down in dollar terms but this is offset by rupee depreciation. i am not sure if ttk took any price hike, now they will be forced to take one (already environment is slow).
overall it doesnt augur well for hawkins. the whole theory of margin expansion will be at risk due to INR issues.
its amazing how page is doing even in this volatile environment
As per data provided by TTK Prestige to analysts, cooker and cookware sales saw degrowth. Sales were down 50% in the south and if conditions do not improve, it is expecting 10-15% growth as specified in interview. Overall economy not good and there is weak consumer demand.
Hawkins too could face the issue if there is weak consumer demand in general across the country.
The saving grace for hawkins in the face of weak demand could be the low or static base it is reporting its numbers against.
Buyers of Hawkins are not much affected by the weak economy as they normally are from the higher income groups. Their decision not to buy Hawkins coocker do not depend on economy but on the availability. I think the demand issue may not be that severe for Hawkins.