Guys any update on this news 
Check the annual reports for disclosures, you will find your answer.
Hi,
When is the confcall scheduled? I tried to search on google, but didn’t find any information. I also emailed them today to find out.
TDI prices @ 295/Kg. Reflecting the recent downtrend in international prices.
Regards,
Suhag
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This video of Zee business claims that TDI prices have been raised by 8% in China recently. Video is dated as 22nd April 2018. However, company revised prices on the downside in May.
Can someone check and confirm the actual date of the video?
Some back of hand calculation for TDI
TDI capacity - 67000 ton
Average FY18 Price - 4300 /Ton
Assuming Average exchange rate in FY18 ~65
TDI price realization per Kg ~ 4300 * 65 ~ 280 INR/Kg
At 93% capacity utilization -> 93% of (67000000 Kg * 280 INR/Kg)
Revenue from TDI = 1750 cr
From segmental result stmt
Revenue from overall chemical division in FY18 = 3987 Cr
PBIT from Chemical division during FY18 ~ 1335 Cr
Majority if interest was owing to Fertilizer division (seeing total liabilities from segmental result stmt)
Almost all tax is owing to Chemical division
Chemical division PAT ~ 1335 - 372 = 963 Cr
Now, check this article - https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/02/20/10195239/bumper-tdi-pricing-continues-through-first-quarter-covestro/
As per this article, EBITDA margins for Polyurethane segment was ~29%. Assuming similar margins fro GNFC for TDI, EBITDA from TDI comes to around 525 Cr. Post Depreciation (~60Cr) i.e. (1/4th of the overall depreciation), TDI PBIT comes around 465 cr.
This is one third of the overall PBIT from chem division.
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Few points from the con call
1. Capex:
Capex will be in Acetic acid, concentrated nitric acid, and formic acid. These will be brownfield expansion over the next 2 to 3 yrs. 1000cr capex. There is also a plan for green field capex on acetic acid which is 1 billion dollar, which is only in the evaluation stage. But man, 1 billion dollar is 6700 crore rupees. I’m not sure if Mr. Parekh wanted to say 1 billion rupees or 1 billion dollars. 6700 crore rupees capex on acetic acid is crazy.
2. Ecophos:
15% stake. Will be online in the mid of 2019. Still 1 yr away for any revenue generation from this project. That may be recognized as revenue or may come in the form of dividend. They are not sure.
3. TDI:
Management is guiding that the TDI prices will not soften for the next 1 to 2 yrs. Their reasoning is that the European plants are not operating at full capacity and they frequently go through shut down.( How much of it can be believed, I’m not sure. Convestro con call will give an idea on the TDI pricing). 70 to 80% of the revenue in chemicals may be from TDI. They are planning to decrease this percent over the next 2 yrs. (If TDI prices follow the current trend, this percent will automatically come down, but I hope it comes down the other way by improving other chemicals revenue) Antidumping duty is not applicable to Sadara since they started operating newly after the duty was imposed.
4. Fertilizer business:
No plans to expand fertilizer business. No return on the 1500cr net worth in the fertilizer business. When asked if there is any plan to make GNFC just GNC, i.e. to get rid of the fertilizer and give that to GSFC, and also to offload the stake in GSFC since there is not much interest in expanding the business, the management said that’s for the board to decide. There will be some contingent gains.
5. Neem project:
They don’t want it to be called FMCG, but neem based products section. The revenue from this is 16 to 17cr. They have already started selling the products in more than 6 states.
Overall impression is that the management doesn’t want to give product specific detail (like they usually do) even for Neem products revenue. Someone in the background said the revenue from Neem products was 16cr for Q4, Mr. Parekh wasn’t ready to reveal that too. When the caller asked repeatedly, he revealed 16cr. When asked if that 16cr was revenue or the bottomline, he was not ready to reveal that too. But I assume that 16cr is revenue because if that is bottom line, then the revenue should be over 150cr, which is nowhere nearby the last quarter revenue.
Disc: Exit at 495. Tracking.
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Transcript of Q4FY18 Concall.
Regards,
Suhag
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Where can we check Chinese TDI prices?
As per Nigel D’souza Chinese TDI had corrected frm 41000 yuan/tn to 25000 yuan/tn. This is a big fall in a span of 3 months.
Now Chinese TDI bounced to 29000 yuan/tn.
Regards,
Suhag
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Gas leak reported at GNFC’s TDI unit in Dahej
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The Company has started 24 Neem Parlours in Ahmedabad & Surat. (Apart from Neem Stores in a few states) These Parlours are going to open in other cities in Gujarat soon and have plans to expand into Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh next.
The product mix for now is purely cosmetics, but they are receiving requests for other categories as well (Pest Control & Medicinal).
The average sales per store is 1500 to 1800 Rs./day 
(Maybe its initial days, but i doubt that it would add significantly to toplines anytime soon)
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U mean 1500 to 1800 items per day right?
No Its Rs.
For some stores its higher. The gandhinagar store was doing around 3000 to 3500rs/day. The overall average is around 1800Rs. (these figures were from the counter salesman, was he concealing or not telling the tight figures? Cant say)
(Editing the original Post now)
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Good clarity on few points.
1 - Considering the current international price of TDI, GNFC is getting better price domestically. Rs. 295/Kg is the current price as CMD confirmed (Sheelafoam site also has same figure) which translates to $4400/Tn in USD. So their focus on expanding share domestically is good.
2 - Few other chemicals like Acetic acid, Methanol and Fomic acid are trading at all time high. This should provide cushion to certain extent in case TDI prices go down domestically as well.
3 - Company expecting margins and revenues to increase going forward.
If we go by what CMD mentioned, then we are in for another superb quarter by GNFC.
One observation I have is recently CMD has been interacting with media very frequently. Not sure if that is a good sign or not but he should focus on running the company rather than giving regular updates on TDI prices.
Regards,
Suhag
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agreed. CMD’s visibility on media has grown multi-fold in the last 1 year.
Given that he intends to grow the neem vertical to a few hundred crores in 3 years, this kind of frequent media interviews may not do too much harm imho. Neem vertical needs all the marketing possible to grow to such a scale and being associated with a known company (in the eyes of common man) should help.
Good insights on company’s expansion plans and overall fertilizer industry.
Regards,
Suhag
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Sadara Landing price in India around Rs.280-290/kg
Base for domestic price of TDI Rs.250/kg
Acetic acid prices up 40% from last one year.
GNFC is the only producer of ACETIC ACID
RCF formic acid plant acquisition cancelled due to some issues , So they will on their own go for capacity expansion of 7-8000 tonnes.
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