Commodity and Cyclical Plays

Thanks Jiten for sharing your views. What are the distressed sectors we should be looking at now?

Hi Jiten,
Sir whats your view on Ferro Chrome Cycle now? The prices have increased from 66000 (approx) to 86000 now. The same is reflected in the share prices of Balasore and IMFA.

NALCO has hiked prices of Alumina. this should impact the stock positively.

IMFA is still available at a PE of around 5. Recent issues seem to be behind them as the company has posted stellar results this quarter. As per the chrome cycle posted above by @phreakv6, chrome prices should peak around december; Hence IMFA should do well till then.

Disc: Invested in IMFA

Where to keep track of chrome prices

Most of the sources are paid but you can follow SteelMint on twitter, you’ll get a general idea of where they are headed:

Indian Ferro Chrome Prices Climb Again https://t.co/XVp9C1UcG2
#FERRO_CHROME

— SteelMint (@SteelMint) September 8, 2017

If someone knows of a reliable free source please share.

how about metkore alloys. They are planning for prefferential allotment for rewamping the plant.here the link
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/a28e5792-d322-4e6f-a0ea-fe2329fabfc2.pdf
This can also be considered as a ferro chome play

Currently have been adding to sectors where I am already invested. Metals/Mining/Infra. Cement remains a bit intriguing and adding slowly and on corrections only.

Not tracking SKM Egg.

As
I had said earlier, I had missed the Ferrochrome sector completely. My entries are never in mid or end-cycle, so am staying away, though sector may do well for some time.

Another sector, where I could enter early was Graphite Electrodes, though I am could not position size in that sector.

Jiten bhai…how long does the cyclical rallies last? For instance, current rally in metals…what are the usual timeframes … obviously no black n white here…but still…steel is touted to be the next big wealth creator in india…well, things have already rallied a lot…but this is said to be a multiyear theme …for next 5 years. You agree?

Can’t say about 5 years. I think it’s too long. Certainly no plans to stay
invested for this long, as of now.

But steel/metal cycles, are generally not very short. Currently have a 1
year view.

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Thanks for the information.

Where do you see historical prices of commodities?

Hi Jiten sir. Found your presentation interesting. Whats your current view on Metals especially on Iron,Aluminium. And which companies do you prefer in Iron. Whats your take on Sunflag Iron. I think Iron ,steel,Aluminum and other metals can be bullish for next one year what do you say?.

Alumina prices up quiet a bit. Nalco key beneficiary.
MOIL also raised manganese ore prices up by 7.5%

I have added to my metals/mining positions. cycle looks to be on upswing. Especially Aluminium.

Also, do evaluate if u want to add now. I am adding as I have many of these from much lower levels. So risk is different.

Hello,
Could you give me some links/books/resources to learn about investing in cement stocks?

https://www.alphainvesco.com/blog/understanding-indian-cement-industry/

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Metals/mining playing out. Many big investors now bullish on the sector.

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jiten bro can you please let us know your favorites …which you feel has good potential in metal and mining sector.many thanks

Hi Jiten sir. Heard the PET and BOPET film prices are increasing. Of course their raw material crude prices also increasing but still will it be beneficial to film manufacturing firms like JINDAL POLY,MAX VENTURES. Any view on MAX VENTURES sir.