Commodity and Cyclical Plays

We don’t know if situation is temporary or prolonged. Let’s not jump to conclusions. For all we know, it might be just a pause and excesses shaken out. Some media articles giving figures on import price are incorrect and do not include all costs. So, one must discount that.

As of now, I am in wait and watch mode.

i got confirmation from friend in steel market that price are down due to china dumping…check with some one…

@jitenp Jitenbhai any ideal about Cement companies …where they stand in cycle at presently? Should it be better to invest or wait. Q2 was worst based on input cost rise and growth in demand (monsoon) for cement company

Hello jiten bhai what are your views on companies making ductile iron pipes from iron and steel and basmati rice exporters

This should answer your question, as to what I think on cement companies.

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Some basmati export players have really been beaten down. Have invested in one. Risk-reward ratio is in favor. One must keep a mid to long-term view, though.

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#China trade figures: imports of refined base metals shrug off #TradeWar sentiment - copper, #zinc and #nickel up compared to last year and the country on track to be a net importer of #lead for 2nd year running. Refined #copper imports rose by +20% in first 10mths of the year…

Copper will be in bull run and India needs lot ofcopper for its growth if its want to build scale in Infrastructure and key market in ev.

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Have an exposure to LT foods, hoping cash flow improvement in 2019 once europe business is ebit positive. Though margins are lesser than KRBL, valuations have come down a bit far.

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@jitenp - Hope you are well! Not sure if you had a chance to check on Citi report mentioned in below news item. Would be very useful to know your thoughts on steel cycle

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Hello Jiten Sir… Any views on the Shipping Companies… Been on a long downtrend… Any views…

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Export growth plunges due to high base effect

http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_zoomart.php?Artname=MjAxODEyMTVhXzAwNDEwMTAwMQ==&ileft=5&itop=35&zoomRatio=130&AN=MjAxODEyMTVhXzAwNDEwMTAwMQ==

As said before, I am in wait and watch mode currently. Had exited all but one position in steel sometime back.

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Check VLCC rates & Dry Bulk rates you will get idea what is happening

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@jitenp Sir How about the Paper Industry? Is it at the Peak now and shouldn’t be touched or there is still steam left for fresh entry at cmp?

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How does the telecom cycle look?the sector seems to be heavily beaten down.Now that the sector has consolidated with just 3 main players all with sound standing eventhough at alarming debt levels.with jio’s aggressive marketing the pain in the sector maynot be over,but is it time to look into the sector. Secondly ,the recent idea of telecom players like idea and airtel bringing in validity recharges are expected to increase arpu from next quarter itself.
Disc: not invested

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An article in business standard about circular economy. India’s current positioning in circular economy. Circular economy will have defining impact on metal sector especially steel and aluminium.

circular economy.pdf (1.1 MB)

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My article in Economic Times, a couple of days back.

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Here comes the capacity for Paper in India. At least few years away and with other uncertainties of the project going through in a different political regime.

No investment in the paper sector

Caustic soda price has gone up again above 41 + . lets see how much it sustains

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