I have not been tracking data points currently especially at industry level but have worked with the sector in the past so for what it’s worth some industry level macro points. Essentially there are 3-4 sub sectors within the textile industry, all of them react differently to changes in macro that are being discussed here.
a) Garments - end product, largest part of the industry but most players who are into exports are unlisted. This vertical broadly operates on conversion cost basis so while there is an upside from rupee depreciation, contract renegotiations will negate this in a couple of quarters, especially as entry barriers are less and there is good amount of competition and not much pricing power. E.g. Gokuldas Exports, Ambattur clothing etc.
There is a second category in this of garment manufacturers who are also having their own domestic brands (Arvind/ Raymond) - per se they are the highest guys in the value chain but as companies & stocks they have underperformed due to various business issues, poor inventory management/ competition etc.
b) Spinning - Capital intensive, will be benefitted by lower cotton prices. Standalone spinners as a business model don’t work over a cycle have as operations have kinda become highly commoditized. That said this is a cyclical business and there is possibly money to be made, an simple search on moneycontrol for some of these guys shows them trading much below book value, so more digging may produce interesting results. Don’t own any stocks in this space and have not tracked for some years so need to research before i say more.
c) Fabric/ integrated players - Fabric is where most of the value addition in the chain happens from a technical perspective if not necessarily an financial one, fabric guys are generally integrated into spinning and hence should benefit significantly from a cyclical turn either in form of lower commodity price, or demand expansion or even rupee depreciation. Better than spinning players because they get benefit of both RM pricing + better realization as fabric is less commoditized than yarn.
Track/ own some stocks here namely Himatsingka Seide & Vardhman textiles which IMO are the best managements in the business. Himatsingka which is into silk, bed linen & upholstery I particularly like because they are the only guys in export who are integrated and own their own brands in the international markets (they are license holders for products such as Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, Barbara Berry for their categories). Hence they will not need to pass on the rupee depreciation to their customers but will get full benefit of the same. Till now this is not reflected in books due to hedging but will come into play soon. Both Himatsingka and Vardhman are available pretty cheap on PE basis but possibly delta will be lower than standalone spinners who seem to be making losses/ no profits currently so will benefit more from cycle turn.