Canfin homes ltd


(newone) #1023

Shobha realtors (primary market is Bangalore) has decent QoQ growth in sales volume. Hopefully the RERA impact of Q1 is one-time impact and general housing sales volume and hence the lending towards it is better in Q2.

Also as Canfin Homes major market is Bangalore (37% or so), hopefully this bodes well for Canfin Q2.


(newone) #1024

Another related article where they mention interest in entering affordable housing area. If a big, upper-middle class builder is entering affordable housing area, that would be a good boost for the supply side of such projects, which has been a major dampener for the affordable housing story so far.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #1025

Geojit report on Canfin. Its expecting lower growth going forward compared what its been showing in past.CanFin_Homes_111017.pdf (1.3 MB)

Edit : Uploaded again


#1026

It seems the Geojit report is not attached correctly. here is the link for the report, freely available on MoneyControl website.
http://static-news.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2017/10/CanFin_Homes_111017.pdf


(Rajesh Adluri) #1027

In report they decreased the earnings for FY18E.. the reason stating that increased competetion among HFC's..but as part of the doing business competetion present everywhere.


(newone) #1028

Gruh finance has posted good results, especially better disbursement and loan book growth compared to Q1. It may not be a one-to-one comparison with Canfin but the results are quite indicative of a better Q2 (compared to Q1).


(Samir P H) #1029

@newone Do you know when are the results for Canfin?


(newone) #1030

Oct 24 - next tuesday


(Sarabjeet Singh) #1031

CD Equisearch report on Canfin. Good for understanding the numbers , would help analyzing the result tomorrow :slight_smile:

19580_pdf.pdf (1.9 MB)


(newone) #1032

Latest news about Canara bank’s plan on divestment of non-core assets. Doesn’t mention anything specifically about canfin homes, but can we expect another divestment to happen within a year?


(Furkan Alam) #1033

Investor meet today at 3:30 pm…

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/can-fin-homes-analyst-investor-meet-intimation-9585921.html


(JKS) #1034

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/1d5a3b77-fb8f-440d-9cc2-36fb8b5fa334.pdf

hot off the press…yet to read it fully, to comment
image


(soumenghosh83) #1035


Reason for concerns?


(hamed) #1036

Disappointing numbers from Can Fin. It appears growth has come down and best for the stock is over.

Disc: Exited completely couple of months back.


(newone) #1037

A decent and slightly better quarter (compared to Q1).

Higher disbursements indicate improving environment (although hampered by higher switchover by existing customers). But this is a trend with many HFCs, noticed it in Gruh as well.

NPA levels almost remained the same (marginal increase). This shows that the sudden spike in NPA in Q1 was a one-time event. Need to watch this for few more quarters though.

Need to see how they grow a quality loan book moving forward. Book target of 17000 crores by year end looks quite difficult. But overall, pretty much in line with peers (read Gruh)


(Sarabjeet Singh) #1038

I attended 15–20 minutes of conf call and here are things I could note down:

  • There is stiff competition from Banks, however Canfin’s Service is the differentiater
  • Their major customer base remains LIG and Lower MIG
  • Majority of customers are 1st Home buyers

Future Looking Statements:

  • Huge improvements in NIM not expected in near term as benefits are passed on to customers.
  • CEO didn’t want to change the 17000 Loan book target by Mar 2018. However indirectly admitted that its becoming little tough with each passing month
  • Effects of Demonetization and GST are there however seeing the growth coming back
  • RERA and PMAY related subsidy to add to growth going forward.
  • Rights issue to be announced in near term only

Investor Presentation, with nice graphs for MoM, QoQ and YoY comparisons

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/50a49037-1f21-4b01-b3aa-fb3c07994f12.pdf

Disc : Invested. Above notes are my understanding from partial conf call I attended, you may wait for transcript of complete call for more accurate details.


(newone) #1039

Zoro99, I attended the call as well but missed the initial commentary on the NPA. Did Mr. Hota mention anything about the recovery efforts and how much had been the additional slippages in Q2 compared to Q1?


(Sarabjeet Singh) #1040

@newone , I too joined about 5 minutes late and missed some part of his commentary. However later there were no questions around NPA. Since there was no increase this quarter hence it was assumed to be fine and not worth mentioning.


(Furkan Alam) #1041

Some points which i could capture from the conf call as below :-

Cost to Income Ratio 14.6 compared to 14.96 in Q1. - There is scope for improvement.

Operating Environment -
Salaried Class : 70%
Non- Salaried : 30%
See huge opportunity in non-salaried class(SME etc)
Affordable housing is the key growth driver. LIG and MIG-1 should be the driving force.
Majority of their customers are first time buyers.
Supply side issues are there but demand is huge

Rights Issue -
Waiting for opportune time to initiate rights issue.

Positive Impact of RERA will be hugely positive. Q3 and Q4 would show more growth.
FY19 and FY20 would be the best years for any housing finance company.

17000cr for full year - outlook , is that feasible?
Post Q3 they would be in a position to be able to see if 17000cr can be achieved. Appears to be a bit difficult to achieve but thats their guidance.

Competition -
Repayment schedule not an issue.
Can fin portfolio preferred portfolio for poaching.
Competition there from banking space. Banks got better cost advantage due to CASA. But can fin operate in a segment where banks do not target.

Pst GST Impact - GST still in nascent stage. Will be advantageous in long run.

Margins - both salaried and non salaried class has similar margins.

Incremental portfolio share of non salaried gradually increasing. Salaried class seem to be waiting for RERA clarifications and regulations. Going forward in second half year they believe the growth should be driven by Salaried class.

35000cr loan book vision by FY20 - how to achieve -
This is a vision set in FY14. Many things have changed . They currently are looking year or year guidance. This year guidance of 17000cr is still applicable.

Big players coming to affordable space. If supply side issue is addressed, demand is huge.

Post demonitization is the reason for increase in NPA. Asset quality is their forte. They think their NPA is still best in industry.They will not compromise on asset quality to achieve they growth targets.


(prash.peru) #1042

Is it now 4 consecutive quarters of no (to tiny) growth in loan sanctions and disbursements for Canfin? The management has been sounding positive about the following quarter each time, but hasn’t delivered on its promises. All while competitors like DHFL and IBHFL have started showing really robust growth in sanctions and disbursements after the transient impact of demonetisation. What gives?

Looking forward to the conference call transcript to see management’s explanation.