At times price anchoring prevents you from entering in excellent growth stories. Just calculate the valuations on next 2 years, see size of opportunity,quality of numbers,management ,rerating potential n then take your call.
With this PSU stocks, once they catch market fancy the run up can be huge. Similar thing happened with LIC housing finance, from Nov 2007 levels of 370+ it went up to 1500 ( from ~1 times P/B to almost ~3 times P/B) by Nov 2010.
So if this is indeed start of re-rating for Can Fin, we can potentially have a 3-bagger over next 2 years, even from these levels.
Disc: No positions, will not invest in PSU/PSU owned names unless it is an extraordinary situation.
I suffered badly with LIC Housing Fin, due to the loan scam. And finally exited around 1100 levels.
Beauty in a girl and Value in a stock depends upon the suitor -Rakesh Jhunjhunwala . Itās quoting at FY14 Pe of around 5.45 . I think PE can expand here
Yes rerating process is on. The sleeping giant has awaken n will remain so as company chairman Mr SR Iyer will ensure that it doesnāt deviate from high growth path even if Mr Ilango moves on after 1-2 years. With co opening new branches in high growth path in NCR n new places like Dehradun,Meerut besides its southern stronghold bodes well for the co.With BV of 190 how much PBV ratio will you give to this co iss the moot question which will give you the price target.
They recruited in month of november . We can give half P/bv of Lic housing finance
I tried googling for the reason for the scrip being in Trade to Trade segment, but couldnt come across any. According to my limited knowledge, i have seen companies included in this category in the event high volatility or any breach of listing norms, or as a penalty for some misdemeanour. Am curious to know why Canfin is in this segment. any ideas?
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BV of this stock is 169.67 and same in MC and other sites.Please let me know as to how you are deriving it as 190.
Beauty in a girl and Value in a stock depends upon the suitor -Rakesh Jhunjhunwala . Itās quoting at FY14 Pe of around 5.45 . I think PE can expand here
For that you have to go through this thread right from the beginning where Hitesh has mentioned expected book value for fy12-13 at 190.
Checked in indianivesh and itās showing 182 as BV. Anyways thanks for pointing outā¦
Hitesh Bhai,
As you know I had ignored this stock having seen itslackluster existence for so many years and the fact that I had already invested in DHFL which I still feel is a great bet in home-finance industry.
Vivekās input on management change and HDFCās report have substantiated your argument that there is a possible turn around in the way the company is run.
Great find and at the nick of time!
Though the loan book of DHFL is 7 times bigger the one factor that stands out is Can Finās cost to income ratio. Canfin is able to sell loans at high interest rates more efficiently. It will be interesting to see if it can sustain the higher NIM with higher volumes and more number of branches. At current NIM, NPA and C/I ratios canfin definitely deserves a better valuation as there is clear change in management intent to drive growth.
Cheers
Vinod
Disc: Interested and will invest
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Those interested can raise their queries which I will try to get answered from the management. These guys are very simple down to earth and so far have responded to all my queries in a transparent manner. This can be verified by the queries raised in AGM which were readily answered in a clear manner by the chairman himself . The same is available on MOneycontrol n NSE website. All I can say that management were very confident of pursuing profitable growth in future as well.
Really Sirā¦one continuous blockbusters after anotherā¦Instincts,timing and knowledge at itās best xecutionā¦genuine admiration sirā¦
Hitesh Bhai,
came across this , didnt know what to make of it
Link: http://www.moneycontrol.com/livefeed_pdf/Jan2013/Can%20Fin%20Homes%20Limited.pdf
I think it is routine disclosure to declare that there is no pledging by promoters.
The results are out and the pdf file that the company has sent to exchanges hardly seems readableā¦ There is just 10 per cent rise in net profit year on year while net profit has dipped quarter on quarterā¦ The good thing is the growth in net sales (interest earned). Here one thing to note is the role played by other expenses in impacting the resultsā¦ Last quarter (Q2 FY 13) the other expenses declined substantially year on year which led to positive surprise on net profit frontā¦ However, this time the other expenses increased to Rs.6.88 crore from Rs.3.19 crore in Q3 FY 12 and Rs.3.77 crore in Q2 FY 13. I think Hitesh bhai can give his verdict about the results
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Could the investment made by the co in opening new branches , manpower n DSAsmay hv
Led to short term blip in profits n the longer term story remains intact? RBI expected rate cut on 29 th may lead to favourable vibes for this co. views invited
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Looking at results, sales growth is good from 74 to 102 crores.
profits seem to be primarily affected by interest factor. finance costs have gone up from 50 to 73 cr y-on-y and from 67 to 73 cr q-on-q.
Other expenses also have gone up
employee expenses also are rising though not alarmingly.
I think more than profits, this stock will move more based on book value and multiples of BV. So given time this should provide good returns.
In the shorter term it may remain rangebound.
This stock has reached 158 levels todayā¦as i had missed the boat earlier i m lucky to allocate 3% of my total capitalā¦intend to accumulate more if it reaches 150ā¦
Hi,
Please find below the link for Sharekhan Report on Can Fin. The report has a pretty good analysis on Q3 FY13 results:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/article_pdf.php?autono=812701&num=0
A comparison of the 2 Sharekhan reports as on 22.01.13 and the earlier one on 04.12.12 indicates that the company has added 1 branch in Q3 [there were 66 branches as on 30.09.12 as per the earlier report, and 67 as on end Q3]. The question the comes to mind is that with majority of branch additions having taken place in H1-FY13, how come Q3 results are stated to have been primarily affected by this?