Alphageo - Creating Seismic Waves


(Saji John) #81

The silence from the company is definitely worrisome. I have noticed similar response for other good governance companies when the management has decided to change the credit agency? Anyway we need to hear from the management on this to take any action. Meanwhile the Asian Oilfields has given stellar quarterly results which can be read here http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/632589c7-1779-4248-a51f-8ae8fec0e724.pdf


(Pod85) #82

There ian no need to worry. Pls see the CRISIL link which shows reaffirmation of BBB(-) rating with positive outlook


(Pod85) #83

In fact going from ICRA to CRISIL is like going from silver to gold standard because CRISIL is recognised for its stringent checks before assigning a rating


#84

I recently read a post on Alphageo… You may want to check the same at https://goo.gl/LAKtSr


(Tarun) #85

Very interesting to see that ONLY data point available in the entire blog is about price. Beyond that no (not even one) numerical figure to quote. That to when he is claiming as an attempt to burst some myths.

Dear @liferokzz - What point you liked the most in this blog since you shared a link here.

My direct/indirect message to the blog writer…(well, leave that. I am just speechless at the level of research).

Regards,
Tarun


#86

I absolutely agree that the blog post is not comprehensive. I just thought that the point about the problems associated with scaling the business was what the blogger may have wanted to focus on. As it is, Alphageo is primarily not a data driven investment prospect (in my view).


(sagararya) #87

Very good results from Alphgeo. Operating margins have increased QoQ but decreased YoY. The result is well in line with the expectations. New order pipeline, capex requirements remain the key things to monitor here…anyone aware of any bids coming up?


(Raj) #88

Superb show by alphageo. They have proven that they can execute large projects as well. Even margins are better than projected.

Latest Result

Disc: Largest holding and not traded for last 3 months


(Krupesh Desai) #89

Receivables are more than 50% of the sales- is it a concern?..If I look at Deep Industries- similar sector, the receivables/sales ratio is ~0.25. Also the short term borrowings have increased significantly,however the D/E ratio still looks comfortable.


(Raj) #90

They payment comes from ONGC with a lag as far as I know. There should not be a worry for that. PSUs pay back always.


(sagararya) #91

Receivables are also high because most of the execution takes place in Q4.


(Equityvista) #92

Great set of results. …execution on track…if the company can bag few more orders …things can get very interesting from here on.


(chikspat) #93

I really like to understand even though, company posting excellent results, margins and confirmed order book, while stock price is not moving? Only reason I can thought is, people are not interested in old story, new orders can be next trigger. Kindly give input to correct this understanding.


(chikspat) #95

If I understand correctly, promoters were selling shares to generate money for converting warrants. I checked all warrants are converted to shares. This is always good, promoter converts warrants. It shows their skin in the game. But still, there is something missing, why stock price is staying there since last year around this point. In today’s filling to BSE they said they have order book of 1200 crs, with PAT margin of 15%, 180 PAT is waiting. I believe once current order gets about to finish, management will aggressively bid for new contracts, because they can not keep their resources idle. Let us see what market want from this.

Disclosure: Invested from last year.


(Raj) #97

The warrants were allocated in October 2015.


(chikspat) #98

Agree with raj1968. How promoters are allowed to issue warrants are governed by SEBI. What I want to point out is, it is good that promoters converts warrants in shares. In past it has been seen due to share price down, promoter not take warrants and let it expire. So in this case at lease they have skin in game. Another point good in results the worry about execution capability is cleared. They execute survey as per time line.


(Mridul) #99

Raj bhai - Any info on new tenders for Alphageo? The performance more or less was expected. What is critical now is further visibility beyond this ONGC order.


(chikspat) #100

Report from morning star.

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stockq/analysis-report?&t=XNSE:ALPHAGEO&region=ind&culture=en-US&ops=clear&version=RET&cur=&e=eyJlbmMiOiJBMTI4R0NNIiwiYWxnIjoiUlNBLU9BRVAifQ.dzOVHMbeld2Ut01WLL4kyyDi6LdwXwmNPYky5X8rvw19XDIyWBk1MmQR0LYHmEJm8VWIGhEGhczXFpGu2-du8T-jfWFbPak_2_PMg8xU8cR2BcDBdjBmu1dXzGX89xB2fg7dd9FN7rIiCpS99J-cdjUrot7foM6vwNmKTMDb1X4.ldPrzgY9YPT62hER.NCuXMoFoGKQCxbQKEeBSCcET8TIDb5B7JBzT2EnmQadaRGkmqKzJNd9iZ3jleGzNQZf3K1k8ABa5_uVoKXDJPfa0oxLRs1RqO0Z1mPRmpQnjUKz6sYkquiYJjAlgYYVGZVt0BZgWYGrroKOcMBK_5UcE9wsrahqCwqaoTO-Uj-hYN5wcTszGG76WQwIyY_O6-Mm58ayo-uPF_Dhovw3PvWyswwc-nP4x0mRGeEc.9PbR0N7vlfV7QebmerpcoA


(Raj) #101

The short answer is “No”.

However, let us understand management perspective(based on my discussion with them during the AGM last year).

They haven’t bid for any tender(barring one) deliberately as they wanted to focus on the execution of the huge ONGC order. The order would result in sales of more than 5 times of their yearly sales. Mobilizing crew and managing execution for such large order was certainly a challenge. Hence they decided not to bid till the project reaches a stable stage. Post Q4 results, it seems the execution is going well. Probably after a quarter they should be in a position to bid for new orders. Anyway, their hands are full till FY19.

Now post the execution of this order they will be eligible to bid for global tenders(much bigger in size than the orders they used to get earlier) as their balance sheet and execution capability would be supportive.They also have plans to get into shallow water surveys.

The AGM this year would be interesting for sure as that will provide the only interaction window for retail investors like us.

Regards,
Raj

Disc: Invested and no trading in last 90 days


(Mridul) #102

Around 7 qtrs remain for execution (left out 3 monsoon qtrs) for 1200 cr order book (net on taxes) remains. so roughly 170 cr of revenue per qtr going fwd. So we are going to have very similar next 2 years in terms of qtrly results. As you say, AGM would be the key now as far as information flow is concerned,