Alembic & Alembic Pharma


(Ananth) #153

@pikrohit

Torrent sales outside india incude brazil and europe and others. So, you have to consider that.

As per Q1Fy15 call they did 269cr to US and today press release they said US did 231% growth. So around 890cr would be US sales. Q1FY15 of torrent had similar one time sales of cymbalta around 110cr.
Q4FY15 had US sales of 225cr.

Even if you take 225cr of Q4FY15 as a base it would be around 665cr.
Note that this quarter has only two months of sales of abilify


(ringa) #154

Yes, if we try to calculate abilify sales based on the available disclosure, it could be in the range of USD100-105mn.


(Ankit Gupta) #155

Hi Ringa,

We should look at consolidated financials rather than standalone. I think the management would clear the doubts regarding the same in their concall tomorrow. US sales during Q1FY16 was Rs.890 crore (231% growth over Rs.269 crore US sales recorded during Q1FY15). I think Abilify sales would be more than 100 USD million.


(vivek naik) #156

expenses related to elder and zyg ,with these two yet to generate significantly to cash flow may be reason behind standalone and consolidated.mgmnt should clear this tomorrow.


(Manish Vachhani) #157

Guys, this is Alembic thread and too much of discussion of torrent in this thread is not appropriate. Yes since Aripiprazole is sold by Alembic & Torrent in US, that much discussion was OK. But for further discussion on Torrent, please create a different thread. :pray:


(Rohit Ojha) #158

Done!

Lets discuss on below thread


(Venkatesh) #159

Why are Alembic results so poor? Weren’t profits supposed to more than double in the quarter? International generic sales up only 47% and this has been neutralized by 63% decline in international branded. Does anyone know why impact of gAbilify is so weak?


(Rohit Ojha) #160

Results are out

Revenues up 19%
PAT up 8%
International generics up 47% to 168Cr. Torrent had sold approx 600cr worth of Abilify. Alembic claims a successful launch of Abilify on day 1. To me, it looks a bit disappointing to say the least. Looks like they lost to others.

Lets wait for concall commentary.


(Rakesh ) #161

Alembic Pharma announced its Q1 results…
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/9C4163E8_5AB8_434B_B39A_B2AB52DDA514_141032.pdf

looks disappointing


(ravi) #162

There is a possibility that they have recognised sales at cost. And profits will be recognised in next qtr when partner shares the final sales data. Similar thing happened with Cipla-Nexium in last qtr.


(Rakesh ) #163

Alembic Pharma Investor Presentation…
http://www.alembic-india.com/upload/05Investor%20Presentation%20Q1_15-16.pdf


(Sandeep Patel) #164

Q1FY16 conf call (quick highlights)

Pranav Amin - “Q1FY16 does not reflect any of the profit share of Aripiprazole (gAbilify), as we do with any of our partner products.”

Key Takeaways -

  • Q1FY16 revenue reflects cost of the gAbilify shipped
  • Q1FY16 does not reflect profit; it will be reflected a quarter later
  • Q2FY16 number is when we will see effect of gAbilify profit (which is major component)

Cheers!


(Rakesh ) #165

Alembic Pharma Q1FY16 CONCALL

05Transcript-APL-Jul31-2015.pdf (127.3 KB)

Highlights

Aripiprazole launch

The Q1 numbers do not reflect any profit share of Aripiprazole. These will show up only in Q2. This was a limited competition day #1 launch which off late you do not see very often. So we are happy that we could successfully supply product and launchthe product on day #1 itself. Our partner has also got a decent market share in the market.

Only player with the ODT( Orally Disintegrating Tablets) version on Aripiprazole

Launching in this quarter, though its not a big market.

Increase in R&D expense

-R&D revenue expenses were Rs. 48 crores during the quarter versus 30 crores in the previous quarter, increase of 60%.

  • More emphasis on injectables and dermatologicals
    -R&D is going to be the most important driver for future and hence getting more aggressive with the R&D projects

On track on The US front

-On-boarded Mr. Craig Salmon(Sandoz) as Head of US business also two other people in the US.

  • Celebrex launch probably in December and Pristiq in 2017.

(Rakesh ) #166

ALEMBIC PHARMA got final approval for Celecoxib(Celebrex) on 21st Aug 2015.
It has already received tentative approval for the same on 23 June 2015.
There are already 5 big generic players available for the same.


(Hitesh Patel) #167

Celebrex sales of Pfizer before patent expiry were 2.9 Billion USD. So on the back of Abilify, Alembic gets another big molecule with competition from 5 players. Looks like a good year for Alembic is getting better.
Only fly in the ointment I find is that Alembic does not yet have a functional US front end and hence will have to share profits with its US marketing partner. But even with those restrictions Alembic should reap handsome rewards from both Abilify and Celebrex. Abilify figures will be reflected in q2 figures as per their guidance. Accordingly I think Celebrex will get reflected in q3 figures.


(Raj) #168

Thanks Hitesh for a lucid explanation of the impact of the latest approval.
The market seems to be considering abilify as an one time earning. Now another big approval in their fold the earnings should grow more homogeneous way.
Only thing left now is their own front end team in US, which they are already building. So their margins will improve going forward. This will ensure that the lumpiness in earnings due to the nature of generic business will reduce to certain extent.


(Rohit Ojha) #169

I saw on Pharmacompass that Mylan and Teva had an exclusivity period on this which expired on 2nd June. So Alembic is a late entrant in the game. This was not the case in Abilify, which was a day 1 launch. So it may be difficult to take market share. What do you think?

Other players are
Teva
Mylan
Lupin
Apotex
Watson

Looks like Lupin has already been exporting to US


(Ankit Gupta) #170

Hi Rohit,

Please find below the date of approval for the generic players for gCelebrex:

The good thing about gCelebrex is its a pretty big molecule and still there are limited players in the market for it. I am not sure on the price erosion front but given limited competition, I dont think it would be more than 40 - 50%. May be we can go through Lupin concall and get the data if available.


(Rakesh ) #171

On celebrex patent search, i got this on wiki

It is legally available in many jurisdictions as a generic under several brand names.
In the US, celecoxib was covered by three patents, two of which expired May 30, 2014, and one of which (US RE44048) was due to expire December 2, 2015.

On March 13, 2014, that patent was found to be invalid for double patenting.
Upon the patent expiry on May 30, 2014, FDA approved the first versions of celecoxib generic.

As per there recent concall, management was talking about launch of celebrex in December this year, [he was like we will be there on day 1 though he was not sure of date]
So he might be talking about this patent expiration.

US RE44048 patent
Issued: March 5, 2013
Assignee(s): G.D. Searle LLC
Patent expiration dates:
o June 2, 2015
TREATMENT OF PRIMARY DYSMENORRHEA, JUVENILE RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS, ACUTE PAIN, ANKYLOSING SPONDYLITIS, RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS
o December 2, 2015
Pediatric exclusivity
I think alembic will be targeting pediatric population.
I may be wrong at arriving this conclusion, seniors n fellow VPs ur views needed

Disc-invested from lower levels.


(Rudra Chowdhury) #172

Thanks Ankit.

As per this news article, pegs the generic market for Celebrex at $400 million.
“Lupin currently holds 14 per cent market share for Celebrex and expect $58 million sales from the drug with a 15 per cent market share”

However, off late, there are reports of adverse effects from generic Celebrex, read here. So it is debatable how easy it will be for Alembic to garner market share.