Yes bank

Definitely their retail liability side has improved a lot through the years.Their marketing has been quite aggressive. But going forward I don’t think the same kind of CASA per branch is easily achievable as they have already reached 1000 branches, the most potential areas.Even though their per branch CASA looks good their absolute figures are lower.And I think as they are offering higher interest on savings ,eventhough CA ratio to CASA is higher,their cost of deposits is expected to be higher than most of the banks listed here.

I don’t intend to provide any data since my interest in this stock is only academic. I am trying to interpret whatever you have provided here. My limited points are as follows -

CASA/branch - it is a wrong metric to track since we are comparing apples with oranges here. HDFC is hugely retail focussed while Kotak runs the largest wealth management unit focused on wealthy clients in the cities who typically don’t park funds in CA/SA. Despite that they have higher CASA/branch than Yes Bank. As they expand into hinterland this number can only go down from here.

CASA ratio - Coming to yes bank, they bombard us with marketing on the largest biz channels about high interest rates on CA/SA, open most of the branches in CASA heavy regions of western India/South India and end up having CASA/branch of lower than peers. So we have high branch operational costs, high interest cost CASA ratio of 34%. We need to be aware that these interest rate schemes are running for many years now. I am not data driven but it doesn’t take much to understand that YB’s higher cost 34% CASA is worse than it looks.

My conclusion - IMO, their operational execution seems to be less than optimal so far.

Operational costs per branch per quarter for YB and for IndusInd bank are nearly the same (abt 1.25 cr. Per branch per quarter iirc).

Casa per branch is very good. I see YB ATM at Kashmiri gate metro station for ex., it’s a station where 3 metro lines meet. Gives very good visibility for the brand. Imo, they have done many right things to have the casa n deposits growth that they are having.

2 Likes

Hi

Understand that your viewpoint is now academic.

On the two points which you mentioned lets invert

  1. CASA/Branch: How are branch managers given targets? Do x amount of CA, y amount of SA, z amount of TD, m amount of a,b and c loans and so on. How are each branches judged be it HDFC or Kotak. Why is an account holder judged by NRV than only his SA account? Why is cross-sell as a target so critical? If given a choice would a bank open branches in rural India (pvt banks is the set I am talking about)?

  2. CASA Ratio: Interest deregulation happened around May-June 2010. YES Bank increased their rates to 7% across any denominated SA value in an account, KMBL to 6% over only 1L of deposit. KMBL went all out with an ATL campaign. YBL didn’t spend a single rupee for over 12 months on this in ATL. Now lets look at the misconception from a data pov of opening branches region wise.
    YBL is actually the second lowest in Southern plus Western region (only IndusI has lower). 57% of KMBL’s branches are in these 2 regions, HDFC & ICICI have 41% and 48% respectively. YBL has historically been very aggressive in the northern region instead and this shows in the below table.

Again my point is without data it is very difficult to conclude.

Rgds
Deepak

7 Likes

Via - Alpha Ideas blog

Yes Bank has released to the Stock Exchanges the email sent by its legal counsel to the Editorial staff of newspaper Business Standard.

It’s probably the first time in history that a Bank has publicly accused its rivals of sabotage and malafide intent

2 Likes

Don’t know the truth behind it but blaming a newspaper for its problems is absurd. Best is to let actions do the talking - selection of a CEO with clean image, same with the Board. Recognise NPAs as per RBI guidelines, not as per their own definitions and clean up the books! Maybe be less aggressive and more qualitative in growing the book from now on and improve overall compliance!

3 Likes

Recently they gave sell call on RBL as well. Every other institute has a buy call on same. Not sure the intentions of Kotak.

Most of the reporting is factual. Only some is opinion/editorial. UBS had a sell call on Yes Bank for so long. Did it have an impact on the stock? No! It was only after fundamental issues came to light that people dumped the shares. Only when those fundamentals improve will the stock recover. Meanwhile RK should think like another RK (Rajesh Khanna) did…“Kuch toh newswaale kahenge…unka kaam hai kehnaa…” and keep on doing his work :wink::blush:

3 Likes

Kotak securities gave a sell call.

Well if we say that their intentions is bad, any broking house backed by a bank should stop giving calls on peers? Shall, ICICI Securities stop commenting or covering other banks? If they downgrade some bank or upgrade some other, does it mean they want to buy out the bank which they degraded? What about foreign institutional desks? If they downgrade say ICICI Sec… does it mean they want to buy them???

Its a lot of rumor mongering and blame game being played out.

Regarding Yes Bank, there is something that RBI knows and we do not know. Last time when some news paper reported this:

" Yes Bank spokespersons Krunal Mehta and Amit Shah, replying to Mint’s queries, said: “At the very outset, we would like to clarify that any communication exchanges between the bank and its regulator (RBI) are secret, confidential and privileged. Any illegal, unauthorized and improper dissemination of the contents from unofficial sources would force us to take appropriate legal proceedings against you, both under civil and criminal laws.

We therefore fail to understand why your publication is trying to sensationalize and resurface an old story."
"

They threatened Mint of legal action. In past, they threatened UBS for same. I mean is it only business standard which is giving these reports?

There is only one way to put rest to these rumors… tell investors what are the specific issues RBI mentioned which led to exit of RK. Instead of giving answers, they are just playing a blame game and trying to hide the real reasons…

4 Likes

Yes has become NO :grinning:

1 Like

Media says " Multiple Sources " and kotak denied the news - share price is still up 8.5% - I think they are diverting yes bank news to kotak - somehow the whole media houses favorable to specific stocks - Did Berkshire Hathway invest in overvalued compines in past on listed space ? News seems to be fake news and know days media like a local WhatsApp groups - broadcast or publish whatever they hear or like or favour Todo ? May be I start to believe what Yes bank told few days back - " Media is favourable to specific entities " .

3 Likes

Here transcript of Ajay Srivastava , Dimension consulting on ET - I personally follow his interviews and set his name on Google alerts -

–
Would that mean that you would say yes to a Yes Bank at these levels?

I already hold it. So I have already said yes to it. It is a great franchise. It will be sold and eventually it will be merged and even if you get a decent two time, two and a half times book value, you would have made a decent pile of money.

I think you are in the game in there. It is a good bank. It has got result. Nobody said results were wrong. It has got its own set of issues which they will sort out and eventually it is a clear case of merger. It will get merged somewhere. It is just a matter of time. You punt on it and live with it.
We hold it and we believe it is going to be a good buy because nobody is saying that the bank is a sham at the end of it.

Are you buying Yes Bank at Rs 168? You hold Yes Bank but I would imagine that your purchase price was much higher.

We have been purchasing for a long time. I do not know whether this week my people have bought or not. But if it gets any lower, if we are about Rs 150 or so, would you buy add your position? My answer is yes unless there is a catastrophic event. Again it is not answer that in case of the worst case scenario like a big fraud in the bank, would we buy it? Answer in that case is perhaps no.

I keep guarding myself in saying that because a long time back there was this one bank. The press conference was going on and somebody was on the stage and I would have bought this bank at any point of time. But by the time the conference ended, the stock was zero. So, I am not sure. I think Yes Bank is a reasonable buy at this price unless a frightful surprise comes out.

2 Likes

I am not very knowledgeable but yes bank story and banks reasons seems unjust, to a layman like me. It all started with a ruling that said Mr Ranas tenure cannot be extended. I wonder why they could not find a successor all these years ? Is it so talent starved bank that they cannot have legally acceptable and all compliant CEO ? It is a genuine issue which need to be addressed. It is not a political party which need to be run by a family member only.

Also, if despite so much of mayhem if they still stick to their gun and continue to ask extension for Mr Rana then there certainly is something suspicious in their books which need to be managed or hidden.

I may be completely wrong and YES BANK may become number one market cap company far exceeding that of Kotak, but their actions are certainly raising doubts.

It would help if all the boarders here try to discuss Yes Bank merits/demerits with all details and arguments in single post. Rather than keep posting 1-2-3 liners and arguing endlessly with other boarders.

This kind of littering of the thread with unneccessary posts makes life difficult for moderators and also destroys value in the thread. So make sure to post only if it adds value to the thread.

39 Likes

Read in some magazine shri rana borrowed 1200 cr from nbfc’s and hfc’s and invested that amount in real estate and stocks. He has bought some properties from yes bank. it seems these properties were mortgaged with bank by clients whose accounts were classified as npa’s. Not sure. Also one of the borrowers have written to PMO that he was forced to sell his property in lutyens delhi to talwar. The enquiry is on and RBI is investigating other such issues at yes bank.
This was in corporate india magazine. Dont know how true is this.

Can someone share summary of the article. It requires subscription to read.

They came up with a new date of 9th Jan

1 Like
2 Likes