I agree with you, the same question I would also have. The same question was moving around few months before yes bank crisis. Looks like market knew what’s brewing. At some point Yes should be a good buy, but you never know in financial companies how deep issue is. I will wait and watch with no regrets if I should miss an opportunity.
I was trying to understand why some stocks fall just before the news comes in the public domain and came across this study which was published on Elsevier. Could sense a lot of similarity with what’s going on with Yes bank.
“Using a large sample of U.S. public firms, we find robust evidence that short interest is positively related to one-year ahead stock price crash risk. The evidence is consistent with the view that short sellers are able to detect bad news hoarding by managers. Additional findings show that the positive relation between short interest and future crash risk is more salient for firms with weak governance mechanisms, excessive risk-taking behavior, and high information asymmetry between managers and shareholders. Empirical support is provided showing that the relation between short interest and crash risk is driven by bad news hoarding.”
++ it was unlucky like other corporate banks becos of Government interia ( esp environmental clearance and regulation changes ) that led to many project becoming unviable … in area of infra , steel, telecom and power …
You cant have apple to apple comparison between ICICI and Yes Bank, even Moody mentioned that asset quality of yes bank is good. Rating downgrade is a buyinh opportunity, NII is close to 8000 cr , revenue 25000 cr annual and gross NPA 8000 cr, very cheap
To rake it in, experience tells me to do two things. One-buy at times of distress and Two-Keep holding for long term (at least 5 years).
Seeing the distress in this counter, I purchased YB today. Now, on to the second part i.e. not touching it till 31.03.2024.
Hi @hitesh2710 . As always, another great post by you. However I am not sure if I agree to the last sentence. Dont you think the financial sector will always be in favor?. Because this is perhaps the only sector with long term visibility and a huge addressable market. Well managed companies have survived even 2009, 2013 and demonetization. Imo, this is yes bank specific.
Disc: Not invested in yes bank and not planning buy.
Would you care to explain about your experience as to what you are seeing today resembles with your experience in the past and how sure are you that the tide will turn in your favor by 2024?
I don’t think the comparison with ICICI Bank’s 10 year (2008-18) return is appropriate . In Jan 2008 ICICI was trading at more than 5 times price to book only from those levels the 10 year returns are zero. By December 2008 valuations had dropped to about just over one time book from those levels price has gone up 4.5 times. Yes Bank at least now is trading closer to what ICICI was trading in Dec 2008 rather than in Jan 2008. I am not saying Yes Bank is a buy at these levels (who knows how toxic the book is) just saying comparison with ICICI is not correct because that was a case of contraction in multiple where as for Yes Bank the contraction has already happened.
That was story of what happened when key manager left and how new management reacted to crisis that followed . ICICI BANK and YES BANK may not react the same way .
On there are two points : Is YES BANK a good business and secondly is it rightly valued , why I am tracking this thread …
First why I am tracking this thread - I am interested to know future of corporate banks - what can disrupt it , why they will continue to relevant , why they will make equal or more money than in past .
Will Yes bank continue to be a good business -
If IBC and NCLT works as per plan - All corporate banks should do well - esp on asset recovery side
If corporate bond expands in big way - Relevance of corporate banks will diminish as good corporate will not like intermediaries and will directly approach investors / mf
If fintec expands lot of transaction ( fee based income ) will move out of corporate banks
Finally RK was known to be good negotiator and got growth capital @ attractive rates - will new management will be able to do that is big question .
Valuation : This is something very difficult to say when book value itself is big question . But for corporate banks Price to book of < 1 is considered value zone …
When there is a group looking at the clouds, each individual may or will see a different pic. Same is with any stock , if someone wants to hold or fresh buy will see completely different then who are selling or negative on stock.
Yesbank is down form high of 400 plus to minus 200. Holding or purchased by me in past solely on Fundamentals have not given decent returns, and the major reason was holding that particular stock too long.
No one is going to gain in near future if the purchase of Yesbank was done around say 300+. If one is here in the stock market to get better returns then FD or even MF, better to switch to other stocks instead of holding on to same one.
Few of the members have posted the charts / technical analysis, thanks a lot, and these charts normally don’t lie. Media / Management can.
Thanks Hitesh and Yogesh for sharing their views, cheers.
Disc: Was invested in Yesbank , not anymore, Buy price was at 302 / squared off at 262. If had waited, would have been in bigger loss.
I have been thinking about your some of your thoughts.
The below thoughts sound as if we are able to look into the future stock prices with a good sense of certainty. If legends like WB and PL have always failed at this, how are we able to do it?
Like you, I also started investing after reading books on PL, WB and some more. Now that we have covered good couple of miles on our investment journey, we can call the words of these legends as gyan baazi?
You have to take these comments in the context of the whole paragraph. People tend to preach investing quoting WB and CM at the drop of a hat. They can come up with a quote of either of these greats or some other luminary to justify any argument.
WB had given his statements at a time when efficient market theory was at its zenith and a lot of advocates of the theory used to go gaga over it. Also in those times the information spread was not as quick and heavy as it is now. So at that time probably markets were not that efficient. These days with a lot of information and sometimes overload of it, news tends to spread very fast and stock prices tend to react much faster and by the time someone thinks of reacting in terms of either buying or selling, the damage to either side is already done.
The gyaan baazi comment was in continuation of the post from @richdreamz post where he mentioned specifically about some guys and newcomers with hardly any investor experience giving truckloads of views on how to invest. (nothing wrong with that but its the repetition of the same stuff which is jarring to the eyes.
While I appreciate the confidence Mr Rajat Monga had in yday’s interview, I still felt a tinge of denialism in his demeanor wrt the problems of weak compliance.
Reading about the multiple letters sent by RBI to Yes Bank without any response or actions taken on them did shake my confidence.
Don’t understand how can a business which runs on trust & is regulated so tightly can afford to be lax on compliance & credit mgmt!
Plus, if the first of these letters (sent in April) by RBI had come to public knowledge, I’m sure the situation wouldn’t have gotten so worse…for RK or for other investors. It’d have forced the board to take actions promptly!
I hope the new leadership takes utmost care to improve this image of poor compliance with RBI’s NPA standards, and resolving this apparent conflict of interest with RK’s other businesses.
Its really very tough to avoid biases if your are holding some stocks of a particular company even when there is clear signs of corporate governance issue. Same people who was posting negative notes about Mirza International wrt their corporate governance, management salary etc are now ignoring the same issues with Yes bank even after regulator RBI red flagged numerous issues related to Management misconduct, poor corporate governance, under reporting of NPA etc. Nothing wrong in ignoring but views shouldn’t change wrt company one owns or not.
No position Yes Bank. Have 3% portfolio allocated to Mirza International.
