No one will ever know that so anything anyone says will be a speculation. We just have to go with the fact that a reputed auditor has been auditing the company for years, RBI has been conducting audits, 68% of shares are held by institutions and stock has traded on an average premium valuation of 2.5 times book value over last 10 years.
Even if you consider entire divergence of 6500 Cr reported by RBI as NPA, that is still just 3.5% of the total assets of more than 2 lakh crores. So going by RBIs own assessment, Yes bank situation does not look so bad.
To me it looks like a perfect storm. debt default by a large issuer, RBI getting tough on banks, large caps in general retreating, rupee crashing and federal reserve in the middle of long awaited tightening cycle.
5 years ago there was a similar situation. Amtek Auto defaulted on debt triggering a liquidity squeeze, federal reserve hinted at taper triggering a taper tantrum, CAD hitting 4.8% GDP triggering a sharp fall in rupee and FIIs leaving the country triggering a correction in large caps. Yes bank shares fell from 100 to 43 (adjusted for corp action) in 5 weeks. Yes Bank had low CASA funding back then so it was more reliant on market funding hence market reaction looked reasonable. But now, Yes has a good CASA channel so it is not not so much dependent on market funding. I guess perception take a while to change compared to reality.