Wockhardt - A story with twist and turn

Not an Expert Chartist… but Stock has stayed in range of 1520 - 1620 for past few days which is very much unlike to movement this stock shows… Might break the upper range if there are some positive news flows

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Prof. Shivanand Shanker Mankekar has entered the stock with 1% holding showing in the sept. quarter shareholding.

It seems most of the the purchases have happened in this quarter only. Please refer shareholding pattern for non institutional shareholder - individual shareholders holding nominal share capital in excess of Rs. 1 Lac

From 20 shareholders in June having 8,85,016 shares with 0.8% of total number of shares, it went up to 22 shareholders having 21,56,673 shares with 1.95% of total number of shares for Sept end quarter. The difference is 2 new shareholders with 12,51,657 shares purchased. According to Shareholding pattern as on 30th Sept, Prof Mankekar is having 11,05,051 shares.

It could be sheer coincidence as he may already have some shareholding and added some more to get noticed (only shareholding above 1% get reported). But such big jump with so few new shareholder means either all current 20 individual shareholders need to buy lot of quantity to make up the number, which seems bit difficult.

This is my guess based on available date. I could be wrong. Expert views are invited.

Mr Khorakiwala today in interview with ET Now mentioned that Wockhardt’s US business went down from $500M to $150M due to US FDA ban on Waluj and Chikhalthana plant. He also mentioned that Wockhardt has completed all the pending action items like responding to minor issues raised by US FDA during their plant visits. So now it is only question of time when they should receive approvals.

So this makes a perfect case of " Low Risk, High Uncertainty Business" as defined by acclaimed investor Mohnish Pabrai in his book “The Dhandho Investor”

I am adding more on every dip.

Please see the complete interview in the video in the attached link -

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/strict-compliance-makes-indian-pharma-companies-stronger-habil-khorakiwala-wockhardt/articleshow/49548122.cms

Disc - invested for more than one year and intend to hold for long term

Anyone tracking has idea when is the concall?

No mention of conference call from company. Looks like they are not used to regular quarterly con calls :anguished:

Since last two years company never missed concall… Someone called up company and he got the answer that company does not have anything new to share on compliance and hence they are not having concall this time.

If company did not miss concall for last 2 years, when it was going through lot of issues but decided to miss this time, does it mean the issues are close to getting over? I may be speculating here :confused:. Also company’s reason about not having concall is interesting!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/nppa-exempts-price-controls-for-three-insulins-of-wockhardt/articleshow/49892923.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest

The news mentions that this exemption rule applies when a manufacturer producing a new drug patented under the Indian Patent Act, 1970 and is not produced elsewhere, if developed through indigenous research. The rule includes use of a new process developed through indigenous research"

It seems Wockhardt’s R&D efforts have started paying off! (It spends one of highest R&D expense as % to sales for Indian pharma company)

More good news for Wockhardt

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/wockhardt-climbs-3-as-facility-regains-gmp-certificate-from-uk-drug-regulator/articleshow/50006914.cms

Now US FDA approval should not be far away :smirk:

Some more good news for Wockhardt…

Promoter is tight lipped about when US FDA plant approval is coming. I feel it is much better than dropping hints to manipulate market price. Its OK to wait for few more quarters rather than having hopes dashed on regular basis…

Ankleshwar plant which manufactures API has received observations on Form 483 during FDA’s recent inspection.

USFDA is inspecting new facility at Shendra as per ET Now news. AS per story, if approved, this plant will add export of $70M to topline. Wockhardt management has been trying to get this plant inspected for more than 6 months. So this is clearly a positive news.

It seems USFDA wants to inspect all the plants of Wockhardt before deciding on granting approval to Waluj and Chikhalthana.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-now/corporate/usfda-inspecting-wockhardts-new-unit-at-shendra/videoshow/50496962.cms

A very nice article in ET focusing on the potential of QIDP drugs of WOCKHARDT

Very important point to note in above article

This has fuelled Wockhardt’s ambitions to go full throttle into further developing the drugs, vaulting it into the pack of A-listers of select global drug makers including Roche, Merck, Pfizer and AstraZeneca that have stepped up interest in the same area lately. Wockhardt increased its investment in research & development to 11.5% of sales during FY15 at Rs 515 crore from 9.3% of sales in FY14 at Rs 450 crore.

Read more at:

I attended AGM in Aurangabad in September and wanted to visit Wockhardt’s plant either at Waluj, Chikhalthana or Shendra. But for whatever reason, management was not interested to show us around. They gave reason of ongoing (?) US FDA inspections. But they were generous enough to show few of the investors (well it was really a small group of investors for company with market cap of 10,000+ Crore) their R&D facilities in Aurangabad. They have around 700 scientists working there and facility was quite impressive. I got chance to talk to few of the scientists as well as few of the employees. They were pretty happy with the company. No wonder Wockhardt was rated “best place to work” in midsize pharma companies in 2014. We got chance to talk to head of the new drug development program who explained that as compared to other fields like Oncology, antibiotics/anti-infectives have higher chances of success rate in Phase II onwards although commercialization is still 3+ years away. So even if one drug out of 4 QIDP’s get successful, it would give big boost to the company’s financials.

Overall my AGM experience was this - I felt management was really tight lipped about whole US FDA issue and did not want to share anything on that. But I am personally OK with that as compared to boastful management talking up the stock price, only to get disappointed later. My interaction with employees and tour of R&D facility gave me confidence that this company can go the distance.

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Hit it on your nose, till it not bleeds but breaks apart kind of news for Wocky today. As always, it coincides with my entry. I picked it up a few days ago at 1550, thinking that the Shendra plant approval is a possibility but alas, got my nose blunted today morning, with another 15% fall. I think, the correlation between anything I touch and negative news (if not some other succor punch happens) is unmistakable…With Wocky, volatility is a twin brother and that is a hard reality.
PS - Invested and hurt deeply

Stock got further decimated after my above post. But, it got ANNIHILATED after this revelation…


Shendra plant was one hope and its supposed to be specifically designed but this hope goes out of the window…It not only kills any chance of a recovery in the stock but my PF as well. For a long time, I used to make fun of Wocky and I could never think of investing in a co, where they found urine on the floor http://www.fda.gov/ICECI/EnforcementActions/WarningLetters/2013/ucm361928.htm but I assumed that things will eventually take a turn for good and I was also carried away by Vivek Pandey’s reco in outlook business for 2016 picks…but alas, they never seem to change :sob::sob::sob::sob::sob:

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Kalyan, I too feel the pain - have a good 7% of portfolio allocated to Wocky… Researched the web a bit and seems like the BS report does not represent new recalls, but recalls done as part of the April 2015 US FDA observations. Wocky has filed this update on the bottle recalls - http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/85C9D366_DC95_4434_9942_50586DF9DEA5_171245.pdf

On the other issue of the Shilendra plant - that plant is not yet operational from a US point of view. Plus US sales are ~19 - 20% of Wocky sales. So there will be no negative impact on the company revenues - Plus lots of new plants across the industry do end up with some observation or the other - the key would be to find out what are the exact observations by FDA. However the plant was meant for US exports and hence hits the companies growth targets going forward till the next successful US FDA observation.

Might fall for a few more sessions - but given that there is no negative impact on revenues, I would not sell-off, in fact might add a few shares if there is a deeper fall.

It is truly disappointing to note that Shendra plant getting 9 observations. Management kept saying they are ready for inspection at Shendra for last 6 months. I wonder what that means now! This surely dent management’s credibility. The bigger issue is whether this as well as issues at Ankleshwar would have any impact on plants pending approval i.e. Waluj and Chikhalthana. Common sense says it would :anguished:

It is truly baffling that company who is spending 11% of its sales on R&D, is not ready to invest in “state of the art” manufacturing plants and systems… I wonder whether this is the reason they did not allow investors to visit their plants? I would like Wockhardt’s leadership to come out and give detailed explanation about it in next few days. If not, I would like to lighten my position since “There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen”