Why not leave it to the experts?

I was replying to a thread elsewhere and I realized that when you invest direct, you not only have to beat the index, but you also have to outperform an active mutual fund.

Of course, the learning, excitement and joy of doing direct is still a bonus.

Also came across this:

Prof. Pattu is not a right person to consult on the stock picking and to ask whether to invest in direct stocks as he is a professor good in statistics , mathematical calculations and very good in excel sheets. But by his own admission, he never try to understand a business module or read annual reports and concalls. Its not his domain. If you want to know about index funds and in-depth knowledge about indexing, he is an expert in that

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Here is a good reply from Aswath Damodaran about active investing and why he does it. This resonates very well with me.

The whole video is very useful. The part that is relevant to this thread is linked below. Starts at 1:20:46

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In a nutshell, I invest directly because I enjoy the process, feel like I’m gaining better knowledge about businesses, and stay informed about what’s happening in the business world. I have been investing since 2012, and here is my journey if you have more time to read :slight_smile:

For the initial two years, I engaged in day trading whenever I had the time, whether resulting in profit or loss, but I used to enjoy it. I believed I had made some money, but when I carefully examined the numbers, I realized that all the profit was wiped out by brokerage charges. I only gained experience and realized that trading is not for me.

Subsequently, I have asked ICICIDirect to handle my account under the wealth management service. I invested around 2 lakhs, and they only invested in one stock without making any further moves for the next two years. Although the stock gained 40%, but it didn’t bring me satisfaction.

In 2015, I began investing in mutual funds for tax-saving purposes and simultaneously started investing in direct stocks (only in a few thousands since I’m not confident enough) by reading books and following some good blogs. Again, I was not satisfied with mutual funds, not because they weren’t making money (some of these funds are still holding, and XIRR is around 16%), but I stopped investing in mutual funds and returned to direct investing, this time with a long-term approach. I still hold some two stocks from 2017.

From 2017 to 2020, I exclusively invested in direct stocks, using all my money, including some funds from the mutual funds I sold and money drawn from PF (yes!). During the 2020 crash, my portfolio went down almost 40%, and I didn’t take any action with my portfolio, neither buying nor selling, until October 2020. From October 2020 onwards, I started buying again.

Fast forward to today, I have achieved around a 20% XIRR on the overall portfolio, with approximately 70% of my investments in direct stocks. However, after witnessing a 40% drawdown during COVID, I made a slight change. I began investing in mutual funds through the SIP route to take off some risk and leave it to fund managers. My mutual funds are also performing well, with an XIRR of around 18-20%.

In conclusion, investing in direct stocks gives me a kick and excitement :slight_smile: Now I know where to spend all my free time, even when I retire from active life. I have sorted out my post-retirement activity, which involves reading and investing!

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I am subscribed to Intelsense @basumallick Long Term strategy for past 2 years and very satisfied with the overall outcome. I have some spare cash and was thinking whether to deploy in the same strategy or should check some other Intelsense strategy.I am a long term investor (from 2010) and do not bother short term market fluctuations.

Request suggestion from any VP member who is invested to Intelsense LT and any other plan (e.g. Q10, Q30, Quivr etc).

What was the rationale behind choosing another plan? Do you keep a separate trading account to maintain two strategies? Given these strategy may have short term trades (and attracts CG tax) what average return did you get?

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Would you be able to say about basumallick investing style of whether he is value investor or growth investor or combined (value +growth) and what is the average valuation of the portfolio?

I analyzed SOIC picks from the past and noticed that most (80%+) has been a disaster.

SOIC YT channel - sort videos by oldest. 5 years ago, he analyzed (suggested as good business) Alkyl Amines, Syngene, Bharat Rasayan, Vinati Organics, Garware Technical Fibers, Balkrishna Industries, Galaxy Surfactants, Astec Lifesciences, Mayur Uniquoters etc etc, all companies which were at their peak and if you see the returns it is a disaster.

I understand one should not invest based on youtube videos, but here is a channel that talks about value investing, warren buffet etc talks. 8 out of 10 stocks the channel analyzed is a disaster. There are many multibagger disasters as well. Just because someone who talks or makes video about a stock which has done good in the past does not mean that, that person has invested and made money in that. The goal is to find future winners and personally I felt SOIC failed in that. The channel is praised by many which I fail to understand. On top of that, the channel now conducts workshops for teaching investing - the irony. I wonder if SOIC has beaten Nifty50 CAGR from the time the channel has started.

Now they have a second channel: StockScans which is a channel that uses technical analysis and momentum to find winners, unfortunately they failed here as well.

eg: Alpha Leaders Scan | Tutorial Video | STOCKSCANS | SOIC

one year back they talked about Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd as Alpha Leaders - convinced that this will be a breakout stock, the reality : it is 25% down from the price they suggested.

most of the stocks they talked in StockScans is a trap - to buy at the highest point. Still can see many people cheering the channel. What I learned from this is to avoid these so called teachers and properly use screener and valuepickr and get some insights. Unfortunately these channels are taking content from valuepickr now and using. So if the stock which I hold comes in SOIC, I will be careful - it could mean a SELL call.

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Channels like SOIC rely on annuity income from selling courses. I wonder if ishmohit ever revealed his own pf. Such people cannot be trusted. They are only making new videos to pull the crowd towards paid videos. Very good business, recession proof as well.

At max you can gather information from their videos. Although I see some other channels doing a much better job at this without even asking to subscribe.

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Another irony, their sell call: exactly one year back SOIC suggested to sell/exit KEI and Polycab because competition will kill it and they are in danger (example provided was Asian Paints and challenged by Grasim (Birla Opus). Fact: 1 year return of KEI and Polycab are 49% and 58%, they are market leaders. With data center business, cable market is expected to boom.

Will Competition kill KEI & Polycab?

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I don’t know how would it’s helpful to discuss about specific Youtube channels here, and because in YouTube everyone can create their channels and create their content.

And I would be happy to learn if you can share any YT channels that gives all the mlutibagger stocks.

As far as SOIC concerned, you are just putting the half side of the story. I believe it’s giving right knowledge rather than right stocks for investment. Hope you understand the difference.

There are more than 200-300 companies mentioned on the channel videos , if you are really want to prove there doing wrong , kindly go back to the each video one by one and put the detailed analysis like , at what price they created a video, what is the maximum drawdown, what’s the current status etc..i

Because , there are very few YT channels those teach you the frameworks with live case studies and risks involved in each business they analysed.

If you ever learnt in right way, it’s a gold mine. Few examples:

selling framework

How to read Annual report

How to screen business

How to read Balance sheet

How to understand cash flow statements

Fraud analysis of management

P/E analysis

Sectoral deep dives:

Understand Pharma and Biotech

As far as stocks are concerned

SOIC is the first channel I came across, where CDMO theme is discussed, way back in 2018-2019.

Regarding the chemical stocks, For every alkyl amines, PI industries and Bharat Rasayan were discussed before COVID and they’re done well during the chemical sector bull market. Even some stocks are in gains if you ever invested based on the names they discussed likes of Navin Fluorine, Deepak Nitrate, and Acutaas chemicals.

There are many sector those done well like capital markets, Power, and Semiconductors.

There’s are live Q& A sessions, where there’s a mentioning of overvalued or out of favour in the market. At the end of the it’s your call to weather to buy or not. Even you can check the clean science IPO, where it’s Risks are also discussed , along with the upside

As far as the course is concerned, it’s their business and its your choice to choose or not.

At the end of the day any YT channel that you follow, I would urge you to understand the process or the name to buy.

May be our views are biased on our thoughts but the number of subscribers is the only metric that tell you the worth of any YT channel not just you and me.

I do know some regional channels, who teach the right knowledge and have more subscribers than SOIC

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Investing in the sense of stock picking has become very difficult, due to easy passive investing. One can invest in good old nifty index, generate nifty return and you are doing better than 90 percent of the investors over a long period of time.

Slightly more knowledgeable investors can use factor investing through indexes. One can find suitable indexes based on one’s own temperament. Nifty200 quality 30 or nifty200 momentum 30 beats nifty over long term. If one is able to stomach higher drawdowns, midcap150 momentum 50 has given close to 18 percent return over long periods. If you are more brave, try smallcap 250 quality momentum 100 and you may get something more than 20 percent.

I tried to search mutual funds or investment advisors or PMS which has given anything more than 20 percent over a long period of time, without any success.

This stock picking can be justified only if one can expect to generate something more than 20 percent. Tall order.

But it is possible through continuous learning.

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You don’t learn swimming by reading books on how to swim.

So I agree with @gaurav .

It’s very easy to take cover by giving a disclaimer that the video is meant for educational purpose only.

The same educational video and the analysis is praised if the stock does well. But suddenly “it was not meant to be a buy/sell recommendation” if the stock doesn’t perform.

Doesn’t work both ways my friend

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I am also saying the same..

At the end of the weather you want to swim (Buy/sell) or not to swim ( never touch Equity/ stock name), is your choice. And you are not going to share your profit or loss for the theoretical classes. And if you don’t learn it properly ( swimming ) you will risk you’re life ( your capital) not the theoretical coach. That’s the message I want to convey.

I agree there are videos analysis is praised if the stock does well, e.g Varun Beverages, it performed well in the beginning 2 years and underperforming in last 2 years, but today it reached its 52 week High. So the profit/ loss depends on you when to enter or exit the same script. And it’s human nature to show the positive side of stories. Regarding the course, I would always feel like an commercial advertisement in the Video.

Please remember, Iam not blindly supporting SOIC here. Just because the video contains the stock name’s (live case studies) doesn’t give anyone right to claim it will give profit only or loss.

If you are really following the video you should follow the disclaimer ( as it will mention whether they are owning the stocks or not) aswell as the content.

I’m not going write anything more about this topic.

Thanks hope you understand.

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You don’t learn swimming by reading books. Nice arguments.

We are human beings. We do natural activities, natural activities are activities done by all animals. But we are social also, and we do activities which are not natural, not done by other animals.

We don’t need books to learn natural activities- running, eating, swimming, having sex, fighting, laughing… we can and we do learn even by not reading books.

But we cannot learn non-natural activities by not reading books. You can’t learn mathematics or philosophy or house building or car making without reading books. Reading books just mean learning from others. When books were not there, people were learning from others through apprenticeship.

I can share my story. It was 2007. Information was not so easily available….I was investing in stock market for quite sometime in the sense of buying and selling some shares, sometime. I was good- I used to read pink newspaper and watched CNBC too. Sometime I did make a few thousand in market and sometime I lost. I didn’t know that books have also been written on investing.

But I was a bookworm even in those times. I use to visit bookstores and buy books on my interest- philosophy, religion and whatever one can get in those books stores carrying around total 1000 books. One day, on a similar visit I saw a book on investment. I brought it and read… and realised that I don’t know abc of investment even though I have been purchasing and selling shares for years. That changed my life. I started looking for investment books in other bookstores too… and read 5-6 books. Only these 5-6 popular books were available in any book store in those times.

Then came crosswords, an online books store. All books on investment was available there. You order, they will import the books and deliver in around 30 days. Very costly for me in those days, but I kept on reading. And then Flipkart, and then Amazon. Books were easily available….. I can just say that had I known about existence of investment books a few years earlier, things could have been very different. Still, at 35, when I learnt about existence of investment books, life has changed.

Well, though it was possible a few decades ago to learn stock investing through apprenticeship, it is not possible today in this information age. If one cannot read books, one should avoid stock picking at all cost.

Some of the most successful investors in history attribute their wealth and decision-making skills not to complex algorithms or inside information, but to the simple habit of continuous reading.
Here are 10 quotes from top investors on the power of books, reading, and lifelong learning:
1. Warren Buffett (Chairman & CEO, Berkshire Hathaway)

“Read 500 pages like this every day. That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.”

2. Charlie Munger (Former Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway)

“In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads — and at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”

3. Naval Ravikant (Angel Investor & Co-founder, AngelList)

“Read what you love until you love to read. It almost doesn’t matter what you read. Eventually, you will read enough things (and your interests will lead you there) that it will dramatically improve your life.”

4. David Rubenstein (Co-founder, The Carlyle Group)

“I read about six books a week. I think the most important thing for young people to do is read. If you read, you will be knowledgeable, and knowledge is power.”

5. Lou Simpson (Former Chief Investment Officer, GEICO)

“We read a lot. I don’t know anyone who’s successful in investments who doesn’t read a lot.”

6. Peter Lynch (Legendary Manager, Magellan Fund)

“Investing without research is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards.” (Lynch famously championed reading the overlooked fine print in annual corporate reports as the ultimate edge over Wall Street).

7. Warren Buffett (On how reading improves his temperament)

“I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business.”

8. Li Lu (Founder, Himalaya Capital)

“I spend most of my time reading. I read everything I can get my hands on. You have to be a continuous learning machine.”

9. Howard Marks (Co-founder, Oaktree Capital Management)

“I read extensively, and I read broadly. You never know where the next great idea or the next crucial piece of context is going to come from. Reading history is particularly important because markets are driven by human behavior, which repeats itself.”

10. Jim Rogers (Co-founder, Quantum Fund)

“If you want to be successful, read everything you can. The more you read, the more you know, and the more you know, the better your investments will be.”

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My argument wasn’t against reading books. I understand its inherent advantages.

What I wanted to say was that if the lead of SOIC calls himself a “teacher”, I think it’s high time his own portfolio trades over the years is revealed.

Regarding reading,
It’s not reading that makes a difference. In my opinion, it’s how you apply what you read that matters.

I"ll give you an example.
Mr. Harish Salve and I both have read the Indian Contract Act. But why is it that with respect to the same Indian Contract Act, Mr. Salve charges ₹ 1 crore per hearing in the Supreme Court and I would have to pay my own client to represent him?

It’s because the manner in which Mr. Salve interprets and applies the Contract Law is much superior than the way I interpret the Contract Law.

Both of us have read the contract law. But its application of what we read that makes a difference.

(Illustration only. Fees charged is hypothetical. I am not a lawyer by profession)

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The stock market is the ultimate information-processing machine. Yet, despite everyone having access to the exact same information, only a fraction of investors consistently generate outsized returns.
The differentiator is not the speed at which they receive data, but the depth at which they process it.

To build true conviction in an investment, you must move through a distinct cognitive evolution: reading (gathering data), learning (structuring knowledge), and understanding (synthesizing insight).
Here is a breakdown of how these three concepts differ, and how mastering their progression is the foundation of successful stock picking.

Reading is the mechanical act of decoding symbols, numbers, and text. It is the absolute baseline of participation in the market. When you read, you are collecting isolated facts without necessarily tethering them to a broader context.
Applying “Reading” to Stock Picking:
Imagine you are researching an industrial company operating in the power sector. At the reading stage, you are simply gathering information about the company- it’s market cap, it’s business, it’s ROE.

Learning requires effort. It is the process of connecting the isolated data points you have read and organizing them into a structured framework. When you learn, you identify patterns, apply formulas, and contextualize facts within historical parameters. Learning answers the question, “How does this data fit together?”
If reading is looking at a pile of bricks, learning is knowing how to stack them into a wall. In investing, this is where fundamental analysis begins.

Understanding: The Mastery of Insight

Understanding is the rarest and most valuable cognitive state. It is the synthesis of reading and learning combined with deep, critical thought. Understanding means grasping the underlying physics of a business—the fundamental realities of human behavior, competitive dynamics, and economic forces that drive the numbers. Understanding answers the question, “Why does this happen, and what does it mean for the future?”
You cannot memorize your way to understanding. It requires you to step away from the spreadsheet and think deeply about the ecosystem in which the business operates. When you understand a stock, you aren’t just betting on a ticker symbol; you are buying a fractional ownership in a living, breathing commercial enterprise.
Applying “Understanding” to Stock Picking:
At this stage, your analysis of the industrial company transcends financial modeling. You grasp the actual mechanics of their operations and their strategic moat:

The “Why” behind the numbers: You understand why the new manufacturing unit is coming up. Why is preferential issue good or bad? Why should the company pay dividend or should not pay? Why is P/E high or ROE low?

The Progression in practice happens sequentially. You cannot understand without reading or learning. One cannot graduate in a subject without passing high school examination.

The difference between reading, learning, and understanding is ultimately tested when the market turns volatile, or things change. Steel prices has gone up, how will it affect demand of xyz; hormuz is closed, how will capital goods sector or a particular company will be affected? These questions will come to an investor daily, and through understanding you can answer these questions with more probability of being right.

It is a progression- reading, learning and understanding. And it is automatic. You start reading, you will start learning and in due course you will start understanding too. Reading is the fundamental input of learning and understanding.

My studies suggest that 80 percent of investors will underperform the market. Out of balance 20 percent, 16 percent will outperform by 1-3 percentage points. Out of balance 4 percent, 1 percent will become very rich. 0.1 percent will become super rich and some will join Forbes list.

We fear 1 percent figure. How can I come in 1 percent? Statistically insurmountable!! Well, if we have 5 crores investors in India, 5 lakhs will become super rich. I don’t know any competition in India where such a large number of persons become successful. We don’t have 5 lakhs successful lawyers, or 5 lakhs successful cricketers. It is not very difficult to succeed in stock market… yes, efforts have to be made.

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my theory:

Higher the production quality of the Video => Lower is the actionable insight.

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Haha

“Is Socrates really dead?”

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I think @Worldlywiseinvestors founder of SOIC is part of this group and worth listening to his views on above observation.