Let me put it another way. This is the china strategy.
Flood the system.
The top 4-5 players are making an integrated play (Tata P + RIL + Adani + Waaree + Premier). They will survive the glut. In 3-4 years, when everything shakes out, the companies that survive will mint money.
New process achieves 97 percent silver recovery from end-of-life solar panels pioneered by Australian resarchers employing the crushing and dilatation technique used in mineral development
I’m not able to understand, that if overcapacity was the potential reason then how come the revenue in Q3FY26 has grown substantially, Profit margins are highest and event orderbook stands at 60,000 cr. Where can we see overcapacity here ?
overcapacity will affect solar manufacturing companies after 2-3 years and all investors want long term reliable companies. institutions are not chasing short term revenues spikes like retailers. current solar manufacturing capacity stands at 125 GW annually and new entrants will ramp up capacity utilization within 1-2 years then overcapacity will be a hard reality in industry. margins will start shrinking from fy28 onwards.
Think of overcapacity as a sector-level time bomb, not something that hits everyone at the same time. Overcapacity is at the manufacturing layer, not EPC/project execution. Overcapacity shows up first in factory utilization & module prices, not in EPC order books.
Consider this temporary margin super-cycle for installers & developers. Overcapacity exists in panel manufacturing, while Waaree is benefiting from solar installation activity and old high-margin contracts.
this overcapacity concerns will phase out loose companies and a wave of consolidation will happen which will result in stronger players getting more stronger.
Strong players are with operational excellence and very strong financial heath.
Only 1% household have had installed solar panels and we just started and even with the same speed it may take another decade to have meaningful contribution of solar energy to grid system.
this is AI generated and this ambitious target of 1 crore households wild slow down according to me because first of all the base will get bigger and the same high growth will be difficult to achieve and the people for whom it was easy has already installed solar panels so the incremental growth will be difficult to achieve.
I am not saying that there will be degrowth or stagnancy but the growth will slow down a bit.
I think 10-15% more fall will be bargain for institutions because waaree is not a solar company but it is aggressively entering into various other sectors which can be verified by looking at their recent concall. And the valuations are not sky high so an investor should not panic and just look at the company numbers and their announcements and concalls.
Will the West Asia crisis which is resulting in fuel crisis, have a side effect on renewable energy, reminding people how fickle the easy and regular supply of petrol could be and the glut in solar panels may not be such a bad thing?