Waaree Energies Ltd. - Is it just the Dawn?

Waaree Energies Ltd Q2 FY26 Result and Concall Analysis


  • Company has produced highest ever modules in Q2 (2.6 GW)

  • 0.6 GW Solar Cells are produced in Q2. (Production is ramping up and it will further improve in H2 of FY26.

  • Order Book Stands at ₹47000 Cr (24 GW)
    – 40.5% Domestic and 59.5% Overseas.
    – 100+ GW is under pipeline.

  • Q2 – Domestic Revenue is 53% and 47% Overseas.

  • Lower GST from 12% to 5%, reduce cost will improve affordability for consumer leads to more demand.

  • ALMM Requirement for cells will be started from 1 June 2026.

  • ALMM Requirement for Ingots and Wafers will be started from 1 June 2028.

  • Both ALMM requirement will boost the domestic production.

  • Company has set up additional 2.75 GW of module capacity at Chikhli.

  • Board also approved additional capex of ₹8175 Cr for:
    – Storage Cells and BESS: 3.5 GWh to 20 GWh Capex (₹8000 Cr)
    – Electrolyser: 300 MW to 1 GW (₹125 Cr)
    – Inverter: from 3 GW to 4 GW (₹50 Cr)

  • Company has to do lot more as there are far more opportunities are available.

  • Company has well established in EPC and O&M, at Developing stage in BESS and Inverter and Transformers, at Nascent stage in Power Infrastructure and Green Hydrogen.

  • Cells production was started from this FY , capacity utilisation will ramp up in coming time. All future capacity expansion in on track as per timelines.
  • Additional Module capacity will be live by end of FY26

  • 100 MW capacity of green hydrogen will be started by FY27.
  • Government of India want to setup 236 GWh BESS capacity by FY32.
  • Non DCR cells having 18-19% Margins where as DCR cells will get 22-23% Margins.
  • In Cash Flow Statement increase in inventory is because of shipment haven’t reached to the customer its in the middle way, that’s why company has show this as inventory in the books. This will be recognised in Q3 which will reduce it to the normal levels.
  • Advances from customer stands at 3200 Cr which will further increases as the tariff situation got improved as company is unable to take much new orders from US.
  • For US orders company currently not sourcing cells from India, cells were sourced from the countries which have lower tariff and company is able to maintain the profitability at the given pace.
  • In future company will be able to fulfil US demand from their US facility only.
  • Domestic Sales is about 19-20% from retailers and rest of from Institutional Customers.
  • Order book doesn’t include retail contribution as there are cash and carry basis.
  • Realisation of Solar Modules in US is about 28-30 Cents, where as cost is also higher but net to net profitability is pretty higher than India.
  • The actual grid capacity plant of 250 GW from Solar by FY30, when we convert this into modules it will be much higher. Because Solar panel generates energy in DC and electricity then converted to AC which remains 75% of the DC. As per this 250 GW of power from Solar needs 330-340 GW of Modules installation. Rest the module efficiency also matters not all Modules are highly efficient, Real Yields levels will be around 75-85% of total Capacity this will further need more modules to get planned capacity of 250 GW.
  • BESS – company will comeup with both pack and module at the same time by Next FY with a capacity of 3.5 GWh Capacity. Plant is already under construction.
  • Management said we are expecting same ALMM types policy for BESS aswell by the Government soon. Some words are also going with government regarding this.
  • Heavy capex will be done in Next Fiscal as this whole year capex was done and going on. As company has a plan of 25000 Cr of capex in 24 months.
  • Actual Benefits of capex will be visible from FY28 onwards.
  • 25k Crore capex will be done as follows
    – 25-30% in FY26
    – 50% in FY27
    – And balance will be in FY28

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Below is the summary of the article from Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE): Moneycontrol

  • The government will temporarily slow the pace of renewable-energy tenders in FY 26–27 because supply of green power is starting to outstrip the grid’s absorption capacity.
  • Projects under the “vanilla” model (i.e., without energy-storage components) that are stuck due to missing PPAs or connectivity will be cancelled and may be re-bid with storage.
  • Roughly 40 GW of renewable projects are currently stuck — not all will be scrapped, especially those delayed by transmission/connectivity issues.
  • Despite the slowdown, MNRE says India is still in a “comfortable position” to achieve the 500 GW non-fossil fuel capacity target by 2030, thanks to a robust pipeline.
  • Industry players see the pause as an opportunity to improve grid integration and shift the focus from just adding megawatts to delivering reliable, round-the-clock renewable power.
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Manufactring plants (present+Planned) of Waaree:

Plant / Asset Location Product(s) Nameplate capacity (stated) Status (Q2FY26) Target / commercial timeline Capex (₹ Cr) / Board approvals Material notes (utilisation, role, risks)
Chikhli (main complex) India (Chikhli, Gujarat) Modules; Cells (Mono PERC + TOPCon) Modules: part of group 18.7 GW total module capacity (Chikhli add 2.75 GW commercialised). Cells: 5.4 GW (annual) — 1.4 GW Mono PERC + 4 GW TOPCon Operating; recent capacity additions commercialised Cell ramp: management expects significant ramp in H2 FY26; module lines already commercial Cell/ingot/wafer expansion capex (part of group approvals) — ₹2,754 Cr approved for 4 GW cell + 4 GW ingot-wafer (outside PLI). Q2 cell output 0.6 GW (quarter) → implies ~44% quarterly util vs quarterly nameplate (1.35 GW/qtr). Module additions (2.75 GW) commercialised; Chikhli is core hub for integrated manufacturing and domestic DCR supply. Key execution watch: cell yield, ramp speed.
Indosolar (acquired unit / plant) India (North India location) Module assembly (retail-facing) ~1.2 GW (annual) Operating Ongoing operations / optimization Not separately capitalised in Q2; was part of acquisitions / OFS Utilisation ~75% (management commentary). Positioned as a retail / market-plant to serve fast-turn northern demand; no cell lines.
Texas Module Plant (Waaree US) USA (Texas) Modules (module assembly) 1.6 GW operational; board approved addnl 1.6 GW (to reach 3.2 GW) 1.6 GW live & commercial; expansion approved Additional 1.6 GW to be ramped — management said 6–9 months timing for next lines (from Q2) Not separately quantified in ppt (capex part of US build-out) Plant described as fully booked / “bursting through seams”; used to mitigate US tariff / ADD risk and to capture IRA benefits. Meyer Burger US module assets were also acquired to strengthen US footprint.
Integrated PLI Project (ingot → wafer → cell → module) India (PLI locations: multiple / state-specific) Ingot, wafer, cell, module (integrated PLI) 6 GW (PLI integrated project) Approved / under execution Management expects commissioning by FY27 (on track) Referenced capex ~₹9,000 Cr (capex cited in Q2 commentary for integrated PLI programs) PLI project is strategic — intended to secure domestic upstream (ingot/wafer) supply, support ALMM/DCR compliance and margin uplift. Execution & timelines critical to margin thesis.
Additional cell + ingot-wafer (non-PLI) India (Gujarat / Maharashtra referenced) Cell; Ingot-wafer 4 GW cell + 4 GW ingot-wafer (approved in Q2) Approved by Board; implementation underway FY26–FY27 execution window (majority FY27) ₹2,754 Cr (board-approved capex for these expansions). Adds upstream security outside PLI; reduces dependence on external wafer/ingot supply. Key to reaching sustained cell utilisation.
BESS manufacturing (parent / holding company SPV) India (Rola / Valsad / other) BESS (pack & cell lines eventual) Phase-I 3.5 GWh → expanded plan 20 GWh (total) Phase-I factory under construction Phase-I commercial FY27; full 20 GWh targeted by FY28 Management cited up to ~₹10,000 Cr capex for full 20 GWh program (Q2 expanded scope). Q2 strategic upgrade from 3.5→20 GWh is material. Phase-I expected to start with assembly; cell manufacturing for BESS planned later in separate SPV per management. High capex & technology partner dependency; material execution risk.
Electrolyser / Green-hydrogen (PLI awarded) India (Dungri referenced) Electrolysers (for green H2) PLI: 300 MW awarded (PLI) → company increased target to 1 GW electrolyser capacity Under construction Target operational by FY27 Board referenced ₹551 Cr investment initially; Q2 notes capex ~₹676 Cr as expanded. Waaree also won SECI bid for 90,000 tons/year H2; electrolyser capacity expansion aligns with green-hydrogen vertical. Execution & demand visibility are key.
Inverter manufacturing facility India (Sarodhi / Valsad area) Inverters (power electronics) 3 GW → 4 GW (FY26→FY27 target) Under construction Phase-I (3 GW) targeted Late FY26; full 4 GW by FY27 Capex increased Q1→Q2 to ~₹130–180 Cr (Q2 notes). Management stressed in-house inverter manufacturing (beyond assembly) with clean rooms — strategic for data/cybersecurity and value capture.
Renewable power infra (IPPs / EPC assets; ENEL acquisition) India (various) & global Solar power (IPPs), EPC, transmission Connectivity ~6.1 GW secured; PPA wins (e.g., 413 MW against earlier slides) Projects in execution; ENEL acquisition in progress (subject to approvals) Project timelines staggered; grid/commissioning over FY26–FY28 Board approved equity outlay for power infra (figures referenced ~₹2,250+ Cr in Q2 commentary) Renewable infra supports forward visibility for module demand and captive offtake; ENEL acquisition pending statutory approvals.
Smart meters (Racemosa stake) India (acquisition) Smart meters NA (asset play) Acquisition done: 76% stake in Racemosa Energy India N/A (strategic) Part of strategic vertical expansion (smart meter + grid components) Smart meters seen as important for value chain (data + control).
Transformers (Kotsons stake) India (acquisition) Transformers (distribution / power infra) NA 64% stake acquired (strategic) N/A Strategic add-on to build power infra capabilities Aims to provide transformers for renewable power infra business.
Meyer Burger US module assets USA (various) Module manufacturing assets Asset purchase (module assets & inventory) — small GW quantum disclosed as part of bankruptcy purchase Acquired (Chapter-11 purchase) Assets integrated to strengthen US module arm Purchase price cited in con call (~US$ / ₹ figures disclosed) Included inventory (cells) and module assets — provided immediate inventory + capacity in US; helped accelerate US supply capability.
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A similar news came about Polycab in Jan 2024 and created panic among retail investors. I sold all my holdings in Polycab at an average price of 5000 which I held from 1200 levels.

I still regret that decision. But, I have learnt from that experience.

Such news about IT raid is usually there to create panic and create buying opportunities. Eventually, nothing will happen but a ton of retail investors will sell their shares today and book losses.

The share price will not only recover but touch new highs soon creating a lot of regrets for those who sold their shares.

I am going to hold and possibly accumulate at the bottom formation. Waaree is the face of RE sector in India. If it’s found guilty, then whom can we trust with our money?

Disc: invested 3% of portfolio

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This is an opportunity philip phisher clear ly says if business is good and problem is there that is temporary

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So True.

Those who have bought the company under 3,200, should hold it for sure.

Anyone has any idea why share is falling.
What’s outcome came out of IT RAID

The whole sector is in free fall.

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Any idea of IT RAID and anti dumping

However much one may pride himself about being a long term investor or a value picker, the fear of him missing something which the market at large knows is always there.
Is there some clear reason why the solar giants, Waaree Energies, Waaree Renewable, and Oriana are falling?

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Honestly, I am not sure, but I guess this has to do with recent news from the MNRE showing concern about overcapacity in the solar sector.

Also, a lot of projects are not showing any progress on the ground, even though companies have received the orders.

It had to happen someday. It is a commodity industry. Prices will be decided by supply and demand. That said, anything can happen in markets.

Also, find some snippets from an article

Over 3,000 GW of renewable projects are stuck in grid connection queues, awaiting transmission infrastructure. This represents the single largest renewable project backlog globally, exceeding the entire renewable capacity of Europe.
Solar’s “duck curve” will worsen as penetration increases, creating an impossible management problem: peak solar generation (midday) coincides with minimum electricity demand (temperatures cool, offices close).
Energy storage capacity of just 82.37 GWh exists today; the requirement is 411.4 GWh by 2031-32 and 2,380 GWh by 2047. Without storage and grid modernization, renewable targets become meaningless. This is the critical bottleneck that will determine whether India’s decarbonization targets are feasible or aspirational.

https://scanx.trade/stock-market-news/stocks/mnre-advises-nbfcs-to-halt-renewable-energy-lending-amid-overcapacity-concerns/26458734

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Will there be adverse impact on solar players like Waaree energies

Not sure how much water it holds coming from China…

the CEO has decided to resign to pursue opportunities elsewhere..

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In the current scenario of rising silver prices will Waaree be able to defend its margins by passing on increased prices? Or the margins will take a hit?

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Waaree Energy Storage Solutions raises Rs 1,003 cr. The juiciest pieces are being offered up to select HNIs and family offices while the public investors of the parent stare at massive overcapacity in India and export challenges to the USA. Seems unfair?

https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/india-s-solar-capacity-to-exceed-125-gw-raising-oversupply-concerns-125110500952_1.html

This is an old article. nothing to do with today’s fall, but honestly, the whole India solar story is hitting a pretty rough patch right now. It kind of feels like we’ve incentivized our way into a “solar glut” that the country just can’t handle.

The government poured billions into that PLI scheme and actually built this massive 125 GW manufacturing engine, but it’s like they totally forgot the most basic rule of economics: you actually need demand. Domestic needs are stuck around 40 GW, so there’s this huge 29 GW mountain of unsold stock just sitting there. To be honest, the dream of being a Global Hub is taking a massive hit, especially with exports to the US crashing by 52% because of those new tariffs.

It’s also kind of a stretch to call it self-reliant when maybe most of the critical parts are still coming from China. It leaves these big giga-factories really vulnerable to any geopolitical drama.

With prices dropping and margins basically disappearing, I’d say the boom era is over. It’s turning into a brutal shakeout where probably only the massive, vertically integrated giants are going to survive the mess.

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But EPC players like Rajesh Power etc are insulated as their order book is full