A potential end game could be merger with BSNL. BSNL is in dire need of operational reform, maybe VI could infiltrate and do some streamlining and clean up?
I doubt any private player will take over VI at such a stake. Some tidying up is needed otherwise it will just remain with the Government and suck my several thousand Crores of taxpayer monies year after year.
Actually that is what I think too can happen. No corporate or PE firm will take it with a debt of over 2.4 lakh crore. From govtâs comments hitherto, you can hear the strategic angle. Though they are silent it seems like they want to have Vodafone in their kitty badly.
Even if they make Vodafone a PSU how will they handle the AGR dues, interests and the spectrum fees? They cannot think of taking it over with the debt burden, itâs the taxpayerâs money being used and there will be too many questions asked. And on the other side if they give any kind of relief there will be voices against it from existing private players.
The moratorium ends September 2025, from October 2025 Vodafone needs to start paying up. They have exhausted all kinds of borrowings. If they canât pay they will have to file for bankruptcy and the NCLT will pitch in. Within the purview of NCLT are there any concessions that the govt can make for itself without attracting the dissent of the private players?
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Vodafone Idea shares dropped up to 10% in trading following the court decision. The company had been hoping for a waiver on penalties and interest tied to its massive adjusted gross revenue (AGR) duesâover âš300 billion (~$3.5 billion). This comes not long after the government boosted its stake in the struggling telecom player to 49%, converting its debt into equity. Meanwhile, Bharti Airtel shares barely budged.
Two developments have happened today:
Court has said the govt is free to consider other waivers. To what extent will this help Vodafone reduce their dues and interest payments on an annual basis.
About the prospective investor, this being a sensitive sector, it will nees Govt scrutiny and approval. Also the entrepreneur leading this investment, Sanjay Ahuja, is known for turning around companies in the telecom sector. He has also been a non-executive director in vodafone.
Edit: The news about investment from a PE firm has been denied by Vodafone in a submission to the exchange.
Vodaidea will turnaround big from here, one tariff hike of 20-30%, AGR recalculations are enough to survive. It should be valued between 3-4 lk cr market cap, enough room for upside.
How did you caclulate that marketcap? How much AGR dues etc did you consider will be relieved and how will it affect the bottom line in terms of numbers?
Edit: In post number 40 of this thread you are holding the poster of a previous post accountable to the general quality of VP, but this post also seems to be on the same lines without exact calculations or numbers. More information on this is really appreciated.
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