Vivek Gautam Portfolio

change.The issue.The changer.This condoms.Based

Hello Rajiv,

There are no moats in the condom business.

The female condoms design approval is more like a trophy and less of a commercial success. Nobody is going to sacrifice the convenience of using a male condom for a female condom that is less convenient and more costly.

You can ask this question to yourself or anyone else. India or america or africa, condoms are supposed to be cheap and easy to use. Also it is very easy to start a condom manufacture plant and the company agrees to that in its annual report.

The only growth for the company may come in the form of orders from organisations like WHO. To me it looks like a trading bet for few quarters. Not an investment opportunity.

Disc : Not Invested

Excellent Portfolio Vivek. Lot to learn from you. Is your approach top to bottom (selecting the sectors to invest first) or bottom to top?

Vivek. Fabulous returns. Couple of Qs

I have some debt fund redemptions coming up and keen to know a few suggestions for constructing a new PF. I have a decent 4-5 year horizon.

I have recently added pfs @44( about 3% of my PF ) and my reasoning was all the triggers in the sectors, where they lend. Was casually listening to one of those buy/ sell TV programs (ET now) and the analyst ( canā€™t recall his name) gave a thumbs down for pfs and his reasoning was there isnā€™t much steam left and results are inconsistent and stock has run up etc. wanted to quizz you, post the AGM - what do you feel? Thx a ton

Vivek. For the new PF suggestions, I am looking at value plus growth strategy and looking at picks which will have pe rerating. Hard to find it in this frenzy.

Suggestions from other VP veterans too are welcome and yes thanks a ton, in advance

I do understand that my req here for PF suggestions may run into scowl by veterans here. I can understand that. I see the depth of knowledge in this forum and I am humbled and hence my contribution at this stage will be paltry at best. I see the kind of returns this forum has generated in last 3-4 years and I feel like lowlife since I had missed the boat in the rally or for that matter valuepicking either. For example, in 2013/14 timeframe, I had evaluated Alembic and Ajantha and went with Alembic (I had my own stupid reasons and none of them are really good onesā€¦for example, I added more when Alembic fell to 240 odd from 300 odd and I did not see such correction in Ajantha) I did get some 50% return and I moved out since I felt that anything of this high P/E is not sustainable. I missed the Ajantha boat completely and so onā€¦Take the latest VP official pick ā€¦Kitexā€¦ I was waiting for the right entry (followed that foot note of not chasing) and look where it has gone sinceā€¦I was not able to enter and I am not sure whether it is still good ā€¦and so onā€¦the story is longā€¦but bottomline, I need to reconstruct things and I have a decent sum coming up from debt redemptions and hence this ask VPrs!!

Naveen N Kalyan

Thanks for the compliments. I have tried to simplify my invest net thesis over last few years . As stated earlier it majorly comprises of

  1. Ethical promoter with execution track record ie they have the ability to scale up. Best found out by going through their track record over last few years.

  2. For scalability itā€™s necessary that opportunity size is large . This is most important.

  3. Ratios like ROCE n Roe. If these ratios are good then donā€™t pay much attention to PE as ten it acts more like an optical illusion. So many examples like Page Ind, Astral Poly n Mayur Uni and other as well

Finally most importantly bet big to make difference to your returns. Unlessn until you bet big n for that a concentrated portfolio helps your returns wonā€™t shoot up IMHO.

As I started with a limited capital around 2003 IPOs played a very helpful role in mine building up the corpus and also leverage used in those IPOs. So is still like IPOs/ FPOs/OFS which gives a boost to the portfolio on the side. I got allotment and also bought in recent IPOs like Snowman Logistics, Sharda Cropchem and have also applied in recently closed Momai Apperel IPO n will most probably in BSE sme IPO Adcc Infocad as valuation is very cheap at 5 PE div yld is healthy 3.5% ,opp size is large, promoter n the co has performed well over last 4-5 years n importantly quantum of allotment is good in these BSE NSE Sme IPOs.

I am holding onto to most of my PF. PFS opp size seems to increase exponentially with focus of Modi govt on solar n wind. Excellent set of pvt sector promoters with great appraisal capability will ensure asset quality should remain top notch.

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One additional factor we should look out for is the cos on verge of increasing their ROCE specially for the first time from currently low ROCE level. Once they touch the magical 15% ROCE level for the first time n it looks sustainable we need to ride it. A recent example is the I prove ment in perf of India dry cell manufacturers.

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Hi Vivek,

A little clarification required, ADCC infocad financial statement shows they issued bonus share on FY 2014 then why their previous year EPS shows closer to 8. Shouldnā€™t it be 16?

Hi Ajay, Vivek

It seems ADCC Infocad IPO will be listed at BSE SME exchange. When I logged in my HDFC SEC trading portal, this IPO is not available. How can we invest in IPOā€™s of securities listed on SME exchange?

Thanks,

Piyush

I have the same issue with kotasec. There is no sign of this IPOā€¦thx in advance

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I also read about some stupendous rise and falls in the SME platform (of course, one tree does not make a forest for sure). Looks health listed at 40, climbed to about 300 odd and now back to mother earthā€¦and a few others as wellā€¦would like to know more on the SME story so far

One can apply in BSE sme through SBI or other banks online facility or through their brokers like Karvy or Hem Sec through the physical forms or getting the forms downloaded n printed through BSE sme website.

There is liquidity problem as min lot size is large n trades are conducted in the same lot only.

Thx Vivek. I logged into ASBA link of my kotak bank account ( not kotak sec) and I can see it there. Couple of novice Qs

)- do you sell these SME allotments on listing or hold ? ( in general)

)- how do you sell? Meaning, it should come in the 2 platforms bse/ nse for me to sell?

Again, thx in advance. This SME platform is new for me

I am also not v familiar with BSE sme or NSE emerge platform but. A market maker is mandated for buying n selling.

Generally quality of cos at BSE sme specially is suspect so tread with caution.

But you can to their respective sites to get some idea abt volume n liquidity.

I got allotment today for adcc infocad. Any idea how much time ipo subscribed and what is grey market premium for the same?

Check this

Vivek,

Are you applying for Monte Carlo IPO?

Basic screening on CAGR itself doesnā€™t look gr8, so didnā€™t look further.Also, not sure how reliable is earlier datapoints , how do you check on those?

Your thoughts please

Ashish

Apply with cheque or ASBA. Monte Carlo IPO has got mixed reviews.What I like is

  1. Good brand name

  2. Asset light model for cotton garments which also makes the co non seasonal

  3. Good distribution reach

  4. Anchor portion oversubscribed albeit from Birla,tata MF

5)DE coming down to 0.22 from 0.5

what I dont like is PE on the higher side at 25,avg ROCE of 16.4 % but can it improve in coming years

apply kar do if QIB n HNI response id good let the cheques pass or withdraw the applications.

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Thanks Vivek for your inputs. I gave above IPO a miss looking at basic screening criteria as it is more of a hope of better future performance rather past track record proof.

I believe you featured in Slide 5 of below link.Congrats!!

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