Vintage Coffee: Brewing Profits

Stock Opportunities Untested - but worth a good look
45

The concall gave more light into how the management is completely on track to achieve the forecasts

Almost around 70% capacity increase will be effected in revenue from Q1 of this year.

Management was very confident with the order book for the increased capacity thereby capacity increase translating into revenue comfortably.

On operating level - improvement of operating leverage and realisations, estimate of ebitda is 19% for this FY

Greenfield project expansion is on track as well. After this the ebitda is expected to reach 22 to 24% due to product mix.

Debt tie ups seemed to be in place with the cfo sharing exact details of cost of borrowings…enabling timely execution of the green field plant.

Another important side note was that there is no impact in business due to the geopolitical turmoil since there is no exposure to affected regions.

Overall the management has proved its capabilities to execute their directives and the growth will be reflected directly in Q1 figures.

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46

Can someone check if this math is correct? Key assumption here is the capacity utilization which management has guided for, for Q1 2027

The 4,500 MTPA capacity was commissioned on March 23 , literally the last week of Q4. Q4 FY26 numbers were 165 Cr revenue, 21 Cr PAT. With full capacity utilization i.e. 11,000 MTPA and 95% utilization for Q1, the numbers could be:

  • ~2,600 MT/quarter vs ~1,625 MT/quarter previously

  • Q1 FY27 revenue: ₹230-270 Cr vs ₹165 Cr Q4 , a 40-65% jump

  • Q1 FY27 PAT: ₹35-45 Cr vs ₹21 Cr Q4, almost 2x , which means forward PE for FY27E is ~17x (PAT 130-145 Cr)

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47

You should take into consideration the 15-20 days maintenance period in Q1 that management highlighted in concall

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48

Thanks. Taking that into account, here are updated numbers. Topline and Bottomline will still grow substantially but we could see a mild margin contraction due to operating deleverage. (Assuming that production stops but a large portion of company expenses keep running).

Metric Q4 FY26 Baseline My Original Q1 Projection Updated Q1 (With Maintenance) Change: Updated Q1 vs. Q4
Volume 1,625 MT ~2,612 MT ~2,110 MT +485 MT (+30%)
Revenue ₹165 Cr ₹250 Cr (midpoint) ₹215 Cr (midpoint) +₹50 Cr (+30%)
PAT ₹21 Cr ₹40 Cr (midpoint) ₹25 Cr (midpoint) +₹4 Cr (+19%)
Net Margin 12.7% ~16.0% ~11.6% -1.1%

Disclaimer: Took an entry position so invested & biased. Not a recco to buy or sell.

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49

My 2 cents:

Thanks for the Quarters projections to the point and discussion with precision.

In investing, look at the bigger picture rather than quarter to quarter or 6 months.

This is to each and every investor who entered market after Corona and who survived the 2025 market correction. As I see lots of comments in every thread in VPicker and on every online platforms, everyone is obsessed with QUARTER TO QUARTER. I wish running business is that easy.

A one quarter here and there should not matter in the long run, if it is such a business, then u better not to be a investor in that business.

Just look what happened to all the excel sheets, precise calculations, quarter numbers of all the businesses affected by the Middle East conflict in March.

Just see how CCL has grown in the last decade - Vintage can grown in similar lines or better. Look at the last 5 years numbers - Breath Taking CAGR, with increasing ROE.

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That’s why they say investing is an Art rather than precise maths.

Disclosure: Invested.

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50

A few observations on Vintage Coffee’s export data:

• Coffee Board export permits stood at 1,726.8 MT as of 25 Mar 2026.

• Management reported actual Q4 FY26 sales volume of 1,924 MT, around 11% higher than the permit data.

• Coffee Board export permits stood at 3,193.5 MT as of 15 Jun 2026.

• Incremental volume since 25 Mar: 1,466.7 MT.

• Extrapolating the permit run rate to June-end gives an estimated Q1 FY27 export volume of ~1,735 MT.

• Since Q4 actual sales volume exceeded permit volume by ~11%, applying a similar adjustment suggests a Q1 FY27 sales volume of ~1,900 MT.

• At 1,900 MT volume and Q4 realizations, Q1 FY27 revenue could be ~₹163–164 crore.

• That would still imply 60%+ YoY revenue growth and PAT of around ₹19–20 crore.

Does anyone else track Coffee Board export permit data for coffee exporters, or am I the only one digging through these reports?

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51

Great digging of data @anupammahor .

Today, Vintage announced an annual maintenance shutdown from June 19th to July 2nd. The above numbers and extrapolations may need to be adjusted for that. In the Q4 concall, the management also mentioned that Q1 is historically lean so there’s a good probability that Q1 may come in slightly lower than Q4.

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52

The shutdown was already communicated by the management, so there’s nothing new on that front. The calculations need to be adjusted accordingly. I’ll update my estimates once the Coffee Board releases the June 18 data.

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53

The main thing to track hereon is the monsoon in Karnataka. With El Nino predictions, coffee procurement could be an issue for the company.

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54

How should one read promoter holding? It’s been going down quite a lot. I like a lot of parameters incld. Technocratic management, execution, tam etc.. Any insight welcome.

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55

This is a response I got from their sales team when I contacted them.

Dear Sir,

Well noted. Thank you for your revert.

Indicative prices for Spray dried ,100% pure will be usd 10.65 / kg FOB .. UPWARDS , depending on percent of arabica used..

With about 20% arabica , price could go upto about USD11/kg FOB.

For agglomoraged coffee above prices could become USD 11 /kg FOB and USD11.4/kg FOB.

Since our production runs 24/7 , we do planning one month before.. so 30 days notice will be ideal … however we can be flexible.

Our FDC plant will be operational same time next year… July’27.

Regards

Can anyone shed some lights on what could be their average realisation this quarter ?

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56

Based on the supplier quote shared + management’s commentary, Vintage’s average realisation this quarter (Q1 FY27) looks like it should be around USD 11 to 11.3 per kg FOB.

calc: Spray dried base ~10.65-11, agglomerated 11-11.4. With their current mix (more agglo + packs), it blends to that. Translates to roughly ₹920-960/kg.

57

Supplier prices → Spray dried 10.65+, Arabica blend ~11, Agglo 11-11.4 USD/kg FOB.

Blended (with more agglo as they are doing): ~USD 11.0 - 11.3/kg.

At current rate ~₹94.5/USD:

11 × 94.5 = ₹1,039.5

11.3 × 94.5 = ₹1,067.85

So average around ₹1,040 – 1,068/kg. .

58

I think the average realisation will depend heavily on the product mix. They sell multiple blends, and if blends with higher realisations account for a larger share of sales, then the overall realisation could be significantly higher. Even then, I would not assume more than ₹9 lakh per MT for my model.

59

They have been selling shares to raise funds. They have committed not to dilute further. Let’s see.

60

I think Q1 will be smaller than Q4. At best it can match only due to increase in realisation as volumes will definitely be lower than Q4

61

read their concall twice but could not understand plant got commissioned on 23rd March but no real increase in depreciation qoq?

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62

Red Flag Alert

Found a significant accounting issue in Vintage Coffee, they classified short term borrowings inside Cash Flow from Operations adjusting that their CFO of FY26 is around negative 20 crores

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I would be happy if someone else can give their view on this as short term borrowing should not be in Cash from Operating activities

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63

that’s a pretty good observation. This could be a cash credit facility linked to inventory and receivables. will ask this to the management in Q2 earning call

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64

Coffee Board has just announced export permit data up to 29 June.

The cumulative volume now stands at 3,699 MT, taking the incremental export permit volume from 1 April to 29 June to 1,892 MT.

Actual sales volume is likely to be higher than the export permit volume.

After the 24 June update, I had estimated around 1,700 MT of export permits and 1,800 MT of sales volume for Q1. However, the 29 June update has changed the picture completely.

I now expect Q1 sales volume to be around 1,950–2,000 MT.

Based on my conversation with the sales team, realizations could be in the range of ₹8.5–9.0 lakh per MT.

At a 19% EBITDA margin, Q1 numbers could be truly extraordinary.

My expectations after the 29 June update are:

  • Revenue: 170–175 crore

  • EBITDA: ~32 crore

  • PAT: 21–22 crore

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