Can someone check if this math is correct? Key assumption here is the capacity utilization which management has guided for, for Q1 2027
The 4,500 MTPA capacity was commissioned on March 23 , literally the last week of Q4. Q4 FY26 numbers were 165 Cr revenue, 21 Cr PAT. With full capacity utilization i.e. 11,000 MTPA and 95% utilization for Q1, the numbers could be:
~2,600 MT/quarter vs ~1,625 MT/quarter previously
Q1 FY27 revenue: ā¹230-270 Cr vs ā¹165 Cr Q4 , a 40-65% jump
Q1 FY27 PAT: ā¹35-45 Cr vs ā¹21 Cr Q4, almost 2x , which means forward PE for FY27E is ~17x (PAT 130-145 Cr)
Thanks. Taking that into account, here are updated numbers. Topline and Bottomline will still grow substantially but we could see a mild margin contraction due to operating deleverage. (Assuming that production stops but a large portion of company expenses keep running).
Metric
Q4 FY26 Baseline
My Original Q1 Projection
Updated Q1 (With Maintenance)
Change: Updated Q1 vs. Q4
Volume
1,625 MT
~2,612 MT
~2,110 MT
+485 MT (+30%)
Revenue
ā¹165 Cr
ā¹250 Cr (midpoint)
ā¹215 Cr (midpoint)
+ā¹50 Cr (+30%)
PAT
ā¹21 Cr
ā¹40 Cr (midpoint)
ā¹25 Cr (midpoint)
+ā¹4 Cr (+19%)
Net Margin
12.7%
~16.0%
~11.6%
-1.1%
Disclaimer: Took an entry position so invested & biased. Not a recco to buy or sell.
Thanks for the Quarters projections to the point and discussion with precision.
In investing, look at the bigger picture rather than quarter to quarter or 6 months.
This is to each and every investor who entered market after Corona and who survived the 2025 market correction. As I see lots of comments in every thread in VPicker and on every online platforms, everyone is obsessed with QUARTER TO QUARTER. I wish running business is that easy.
A one quarter here and there should not matter in the long run, if it is such a business, then u better not to be a investor in that business.
Just look what happened to all the excel sheets, precise calculations, quarter numbers of all the businesses affected by the Middle East conflict in March.
Just see how CCL has grown in the last decade - Vintage can grown in similar lines or better. Look at the last 5 years numbers - Breath Taking CAGR, with increasing ROE.
Today, Vintage announced an annual maintenance shutdown from June 19th to July 2nd. The above numbers and extrapolations may need to be adjusted for that. In the Q4 concall, the management also mentioned that Q1 is historically lean so thereās a good probability that Q1 may come in slightly lower than Q4.
The shutdown was already communicated by the management, so thereās nothing new on that front. The calculations need to be adjusted accordingly. Iāll update my estimates once the Coffee Board releases the June 18 data.
How should one read promoter holding? Itās been going down quite a lot. I like a lot of parameters incld. Technocratic management, execution, tam etc.. Any insight welcome.
Based on the supplier quote shared + managementās commentary, Vintageās average realisation this quarter (Q1 FY27) looks like it should be around USD 11 to 11.3 per kg FOB.
calc: Spray dried base ~10.65-11, agglomerated 11-11.4. With their current mix (more agglo + packs), it blends to that. Translates to roughly ā¹920-960/kg.
I think the average realisation will depend heavily on the product mix. They sell multiple blends, and if blends with higher realisations account for a larger share of sales, then the overall realisation could be significantly higher. Even then, I would not assume more than ā¹9 lakh per MT for my model.
