[quote="Donald, post:16, topic:845709034"]
> Some data on the main products over last 5 years.
>
> DPO Sales (Cr) | 26.48%
> DPO Qty (kg) | 17.02%
> DPO Realisation (Rs/kg) |
> DPO Seg Contribution |
> Drug Coating Sales (Cr) | 13.21%
> Drug Coating Qty (Kg) | 17.29%
> Drug Coating Realisation (Rs/Kg) |
> Drug Coating Seg Contribution |
>
> These numbers are a dampner for me, given the size of the company ~40 Cr Annual Sales
>
> Drug Coating Sales CAGR is disappointing. Points to lower price realisations
>
> DPO Sales CAGR looks nice only because of the huge jump in FY11 fro DPO. We can try to find the reasons why
>
> Both figures do not point to any sort of niche domination. My guess is there are Chinese players also supplying both segment products
>
> If over 25 years, the company has not been able to scale up significantly what makes us think that the company will suddenly be able to grow and manage the environment any better??
>
> Its too small a company to draw any sort of conclusions! Before the run up ~32 or so there might have been some price arbitrage. Stock has run up to 44 CMP, and at tehse levels good things are priced in.
>
> **This is a pass, at the moment!
[/quote]
Thanks for supplying further details. It will be too early to write this off, or ride this with full blow. Details of FY12 numbers and/or interview with the management will provide more clarity. More thoughts in line below:
| Vikram Thermo | FY2011 | FY2010 | FY2009 | FY2008 | FY2007 | 5yr CAGR |
14.88 | 8.73 | 5.25 | 7.43 | 5.81 | 903265 | 787980 | 418405 | 591290 | 481695 | 164.70 | 110.79 | 125.56 | 125.67 | 120.68 | 45.79% | 41.41% | 29.41% | 35.33% | 34.49% | 17.08 | 11.78 | 11.91 | 12.97 | 10.40 | 1535105 | 1147401 | 1048804 | 1111351 | 811269 | 111.27 | 102.64 | 113.60 | 116.66 | 128.19 | 53.45% | 57.43% | 69.40% | 63.57% | 64.14% |
Not completely - there are positives as well. Plus, we dont know the details of FY12 numbers yet.
1.
However, volume has gone up 1.9x in 4yrs. Marginal improvent in realizations in FY11 is a positive. Maybe realizations came down becauseof discounts to win more clients, macro crunch or maybe it was industry wide phenomenun. Need to check that as well as FY12 numbers.
2.
Capacity installed and increased to 840T in FY11 from 600T till FY10. Decent capacity utilization in fy10 and fy11. Seems like they knew the demand will grow, realizations could be higher and acted accordingly. Full marks there. FY12 seems to better looking at total revenues. However, for better clarity, I would like to know promoters' view as well.
3. Looks more like they won some more clients / increased orders in FY10-FY12 which is a good sign. For DPO, the company says they directly compete with Dowtherm A and for Drugcoat, they say they want to make it a leading brand in excipients, globally. I am quite okay with this kind of simple living and high thinking approach. And all those listings on directories, magazines, websites do sound interesting. At least they are trying hard in a market that seems to dominated by large players. One or two big orders here or there could do wonders.
Not suddenly, but gradually :) we need some gyaan from the promoters
one bit I completely agree with. Few days prior to the announcement of q4 results, I had drawn price vs ltm earnings for the past few quarters and found there was a big gap - if the company were to do ok in q4, it should trade up to 42-44 to catch up with earnings. Then it was trading at 32. Then the results were announced and the rest is history. The stock is up 37.5% from those levels, and if the earnings continue to grow at this/higher rate, prices will follow.This is
Like I said above, it will be too early to write this off, and maybe too early to ride for some :) most important bit is pursuit of truth and to allocate capital wisely.
