V2 Retail - Second innings playing out well

V2 Retail Q3FY2026 Results

  1. Revenue grew by 57%, PBT grew by 60.9%
  2. PAT grew by 100%, but there was exceptional gain of 27.69 crores. Excluding the exception gain due to change in lease terms, the EPS grew by 57%, in line with revenue growth.

Other metrics from previous Business Update for Q3

  1. SSSG 2%, Normalised for Festive period shift ~12.8%. But the better metric is commulative SSSG for Q2+Q3, which stood at 10.4%.
  2. As of 16/01/2026 update, their stores were 300, with 111 net additions in FY2026 till the date

Waiting for PPT Concall for further updates.

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V2 Retail – Q3FY26 Results & Concall Notes

1. Stores

  • Opened 35 stores in Q3. 294 stores at Q3 end.
  • 10 stores already added in Q4 as of concall date. Now total stores 304. Total 30-35 stores expected to be added in this quarter.
  • Next year store target 150, and 8-10% SSSG.
  • Entered 7 new states this year. Going forward, 60-70% of new stores will be opened in exisisting strong clusters. Remaining 30-40% will come in new geographies that perform well.
  • There was 1 store closure, due to being EBITDA negative.

2. Metrics Q3FY26 vs Q3FY25

  • Cumulative SSSG for Q2+Q3 10.4%
  • EBITDA margin 18.7% vs 18.9% last year
  • Volumes grew 48%
  • SPSF 1032 vs 1219. Decline due to festive shift. Also, new stores do 70% of SPSF of old stores and it takes 2 to 3 years to mature. As the share of new stores has increased overall SPSF reduced.
  • MRP Sales 92% vs 91%
  • ASP 363 vs 343
  • ABV 964 vs 924
  • Net working capital days increased to 69 days vs 45 in FY25. It was on account of reduction in creditor days to 41 vs 63 last year. As they have started paying the vendors early to strengthen relationships and avail discounts. Working capital days to settle around 60 days going forward.
  • ROE 24.5% vs 23.2% for FY25

Pre-IndAS Numbers - Q3

  • Revenue up 57% YoY
  • EBITDA up 50% YoY, margins declined to 13.5% vs 14.2% last year
  • PAT grew 47%

3. Metrics 9MFY26 vs 9MFY25

  • SPSF 981 vs 1069
  • MRP Sales 92% vs 91%
  • SSSG 8.6%
  • Volumes grew 45%
  • ABV 925 vs 853
  • The older stores (opened before 31 March 2024) have touched 1200 SPSF in 9MFY26.
  • New stores this year (FY26, ~116 stores) and last year (FY25, ~72 stores) have SPSF around 720-740 in 9MFY26. They are EBITDA postive from the first month.

Pre-IndAS numbers - 9M

  • Revenue up 64%
  • EBITDA up 80%, margins 9.8% vs 8.9% last year
  • PAT up 83% YoY

4. Future Outlook

  • SPSF target to maintain around 1000, even while adding 50% area every year.
  • Cost of retailing (rent+opex) is around 195 for Q3 vs 205 last year. It is expected to go down to 180 in near future.
  • The head office cost is 26-27 per square feet. As the store area grows this cost is expected to come down to 15-16.
  • Gross profit margins to stay in 28-29% range.
  • FY27 revenue growth guidance is atleast 50%.

5. Lease / Accounting Changes

Following Lease terms negotiated effects,

  • ROU assets and lease liabilities reduced by 484 cr. and 499 cr. respectively.

  • One-time exceptional gain of 27.69 cr.

  • It has resulted in reduced finance cost, as lease liabilities have decreased.

  • No change in Pre-IndAS numbers.

  • It was to bridge the gap between Pre-IndAS and Post-IndAS PAT numbers, like all their peers had done few quarters back. (Though, in Q1FY26 call they were asked if they are planning on doing anything like that, they had clearly said no. Now, out of nowhere a change, although nothing big, its just an accounting jargon, no cash impact)

6. Other Points

  • Written-off 5 crore worth of assets as part of reconciliation with audit
  • Out of 400 cr. QIP funds, they used 300 cr to pre-pay their vendors. (A very weird step, considering this is one time, and they won’t have QIP cash laying around to pay them early again. In the end, the creditor days will be back up to 55-60 days as per management guidance).
  • On competition front from organised players, management said that out of their 304 stores, there are less than 20 stores where there is no organised competition. Competition is part of this play now, and the strongest is going to survive by delivering best value to the customer.
  • On competition front from online players like Meesho, management said that for online players logistics cost is very high around 65-70%, and there are tech, head office costs as well. Therefore, same value cannot be delivered through pure online channels.
  • For older stores 68% are repeat customers.
  • Floor level staff attrition is high as per the industry norms. While the head office level attrition is under control.

7. Risk

Key risk I see - Revenue growth guidance is 50%. Lets say they end FY26 with 325-330 stores. Next year target is 150 stores, opening that many stores is going to be tough, though they have proven this year that they can do it. So it will be 45% expansion of stores.

New stores do 70% of old stores PSF. If we do rough calculation 45 x 70% + 10% SSSG, it comes out to be 42% revenue growth. It isn’t bad, but it is lower than the guided. To achieve the guidance they need to do

  • Higher SPSF overall, or
  • SSSG higher than 10% (which looks tough given the declining trend) or
  • Open even more stores than 150 already guided for or
  • The stores need to mature faster

Else, they might miss the guidance of 50% and market does not like guidance misses, especially when the valuations are fairly rich (though now cooled-off a bit due to good results). Lets see how this rolls forward.

It is possible that my calculations be inaccurate and they could pull it off like they have done for many quarters now.

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V2 Retail and the Architecture of Affordable Aspiration

The visible story is store growth. The deeper one is whether each new location becomes part of local routine, customer trust, and repeat demand.

Opening Line

The best neighborhood businesses do not win by being extraordinary.

They win by becoming the choice people stop rethinking.

That is one of the most underrated forms of economic power: becoming a low-friction decision.

Think of the pharmacy at the corner you walk into when you do not want to compare five options. The restaurant on a highway you choose because you know the stop will not waste your time. The petrol pump you pull into not because it is beautiful, but because you trust it enough not to second-guess the decision.

None of these businesses needs to feel magical. They only need to feel safe, familiar, and reliable enough to repeat.

Once a business crosses that line, the economics change.

It no longer has to win every customer from zero. It begins the day with borrowed trust. And borrowed trust, repeated often enough, turns a network of locations into something far more powerful than presence.

It turns it into habit.

The companies that achieve this often look plain at first. Then, one day, they stop behaving like stores and start behaving like infrastructure.

That is where this story begins.


The Bridge

That is what makes certain retail businesses more powerful than they first appear.

They do not win by being premium, nor by being unforgettable every time. They win by becoming reliable enough to repeat.

In India, that matters enormously because the consumer story is no longer one-dimensional.

The same market is becoming more aspirational and still deeply value-conscious. More digital and still heavily offline. More brand-aware and still careful about price.

It is not one India moving in a straight line.

It is many Indias moving at once.

That is exactly the kind of market where low-friction trust becomes powerful.

This is where V2 Retail enters the picture.

On the surface, it looks like a fast-growing value-fashion chain. But the more interesting possibility is that it is trying to become something harder to build and easier to underestimate:

a distributed, low-friction retail answer for households that want to stay current without making the purchase feel risky, chaotic, or financially foolish.

That possibility — more than the store count, more than the quarterly growth, more than the category label — is what makes the business worth dissecting.


What V2 Really Sells

V2 does not merely sell shirts, kurtas, jeans, kidswear, or family apparel.

It sells a simpler answer to a very human question:

“How do I look better without making the budget uncomfortable?”

That question matters because clothing is rarely just utility. A customer is not only buying fabric. She is buying presentation, confidence, comfort, family approval, occasion-readiness, and the quiet satisfaction of feeling current without feeling financially careless.

This is where value fashion becomes more interesting than the phrase suggests.

The Indian consumer is becoming more aspirational, but not less value-conscious. Aspiration has increased, but budget discipline has not disappeared. The customer wants better design, better freshness, better store experience, and better trust — but she still wants the price to feel sensible.

That tension is the opportunity.

A local market may offer low prices. But it often comes with friction: bargaining, inconsistent quality, unclear pricing, poor trial experience, crowding, limited trust, and the constant doubt of whether the purchase was actually worth it.

Organized value fashion reduces that doubt.

For a middle-income household, especially a woman shopping for herself, her children, or a family occasion, the store is not only a place to buy clothes. It is a place where small decisions become easier. The price is visible. The assortment is arranged. The product feels current. The family can shop together. The purchase feels less risky.

That is the real product.

Fashion here is not pure utility. It is deeply linked to occasions, festivals, weddings, birthdays, school events, work, social outings, and family functions. These are moments where appearance matters — but overspending still hurts.

So the customer is not asking for luxury.

She is asking for a safer upgrade.

A better-looking kurta for a festival. A fresh shirt for a family function. Affordable kidswear that does not feel poor. Casualwear that looks current enough for photos, outings, and everyday confidence.

That is why V2’s proposition is not simply “cheap clothes.”

Cheap can still feel risky. Cheap can feel chaotic. Cheap can feel like compromise.

V2 is trying to offer something more valuable:

affordable aspiration with lower decision friction.

If the company gets this right, the store becomes more than a discount outlet. It becomes a repeatable answer for households that want to look better, stay current, and still feel financially sensible.

V2 does not sell luxury.

It sells affordable confidence.


Why Offline Still Matters

The easy argument is that fashion will move online.

The better argument is that fashion discovery may move online, but fashion trust still often gets built offline.

For V2’s customer, the store does something a screen cannot fully replace:

it makes the decision feel safer.

That is why offline is not merely a channel here.

It is a trust interface.

A well-run value-fashion store lets the customer touch, compare, try, decide, and buy in one visit.

That matters because V2 is not only competing for attention.

It is competing for confidence.

And in value fashion, confidence is often built closest to the rack, the trial room, the price tag, and the billing counter.

That is why V2’s store network should not be seen as old-world baggage.

It is the operating surface of the business.


How the V2 Machine Works

The customer sees a store. The investor has to see the machine behind it.

V2 is not trying to build a luxury brand. It is trying to build a repeatable retail machine that can deliver a visible upgrade at a manageable price, store after store.

The demand side is straightforward. V2 serves middle-income families who need clothes not once a year, but again and again — for daily wear, school functions, festivals, weddings, travel, and the steady stream of ordinary social moments that still require people to look presentable.

This is not occasional aspiration.

It is repeat demand with budget discipline attached.

Competition exists, of course. Zudio, V-Mart, Vishal Mega Mart, Baazar Style, Style Union, Yousta, Intune, Cantabil, Azorte and others are all trying to serve some version of the same need.

Clothing is not a winner-takes-all category. Different customers want different fits, fabrics, colours, styles, and price points, which is why multiple players can coexist and still grow large.

So the real question is not whether rivals exist.

They do.

The prize is not owning the category.

It is owning a repeatable corner of it.

This is where the operating model matters more than the market label. In a diverse market, winning retail is not about serving everyone. It is about aligning merchandise, pricing, store experience, network, and replenishment around a chosen customer.

That is what V2 is trying to build — a lane based on price clarity, family comfort, freshness, and merchandise control , and then keep that lane productive as the network expands.

That also means V2 is not creating the need from zero. The need already exists in local markets, bazaars, and family wardrobes. The opportunity is to convert that demand into a more organized, repeatable habit.

Its real fight is not only for footfall.

It is for trust.

In the bazaar, every purchase carries a small investigation cost. The customer has to judge the fabric, the fit, the fairness of the quote, and whether the garment will still feel worth it after a few washes. Organized retail reduces that mental tax. In that sense, V2 is not just selling fashion. It is offering a quality floor in a market where uncertainty is otherwise part of the purchase.

Retail often looks like a product business.

In reality, it is often a hesitation business.

But that is only half the story. V2 is not built just to prevent disappointment. It is built to make aspiration affordable. The product has to clear a quality floor, yes — but it also has to look like it belongs in a more expensive box. That is what makes value fashion work. The customer is not just buying out of necessity. She is buying into a better version of how she wants to look.

The victory is not that the product is cheap.

The victory is that it does not look like the compromise was cheap.

The store itself is part of the model. In value fashion, the store is not merely where inventory sits. It is where hesitation gets resolved. The display, the assortment, the pricing clarity, the family comfort, the ease of browsing — all of this helps turn intent into purchase. If the store feels confusing, stale, or stressful, the model weakens. If it feels current, accessible, and easy to shop, the model strengthens.

Then comes merchandise control.

This is where private labels matter.

A retailer that only sells other people’s brands remains closer to a shopkeeper. A retailer with strong private labels gains more control over design, sourcing, price points, assortment, replenishment, and correction.

Yes, that helps margins. But the deeper advantage is control — and speed is the visible result of that control.

In a category where customers often care less about the logo and more about whether the product looks current, fits well, and feels worth the price , private label changes the game.

It gives V2 a better chance of reacting to what is actually selling rather than waiting on someone else’s product cycle.

In a category driven by freshness, private label is not just a margin lever.

It is a response-time lever.

Freshness is the operating core.

Fashion is one of the few retail categories where old stock is not just unsold stock; it is fading relevance. If the rack feels stale, the store feels stale. If the store feels stale, the customer stops returning. So the machine works only if V2 can keep enough newness on the floor, avoid dead inventory, and move merchandise before relevance slips away.

In this business, old stock is yesterday’s fashion and tomorrow’s markdown.

That is the model at its best.

And that is why the real test is not only whether V2 buys well.

It is how quickly it recognises a mistake, marks it down, clears the floor, and recycles the cash.

A machine that cannot correct quickly eventually starts carrying its own errors.

That is where data starts to matter.

A growing network does more than add revenue. It produces signals: what is selling, where it is selling, in which size, at what price point, and in what local context. But collecting data is not the edge. The real skill is turning those signals into better buying, sharper allocation, faster replenishment, and earlier correction when something is not working.

In value fashion, data is useful only if it reaches the rack fast enough.

There is also a people layer to this machine. Retail is a people-heavy business, and V2 is no exception. A store still needs managers, floor staff, cashiers, stock handlers, and support teams to keep the format running. But once that base is in place, higher sales do not always require proportionately higher manpower. Better merchandising, stronger footfall, higher conversion, and smoother replenishment can make the same store and broadly similar teams carry more throughput. That is where operating leverage starts to appear.

A better store does not need twice the staff to sell twice the product.

In that sense, employees are not just a cost line. In value fashion, they are part of the conversion system.

The expansion strategy matters for the same reason.

V2 is not trying to scatter stores everywhere at once. The logic is to deepen presence in existing states and clusters first, especially in markets where organized value fashion still has room to convert local demand, and only then widen into newer territories. A single store creates presence. A cluster creates familiarity, tighter distribution, and better local learning.

This is one of those businesses that is easy to describe and hard to execute.

Because everything has to work together: the location, the cluster, the assortment, the freshness, the price architecture, the inventory discipline, the local data, the store team, and the repeat behavior of the customer.

When those pieces align, V2 can do something very valuable:

convert unorganized shopping into organized habit, while offering a better-looking product than the bazaar and a safer price than premium retail.

That is the machine.

But retail machines are not judged by description alone. They are judged by store productivity. In V2’s case, that means watching the hard operating numbers — same-store sales growth, sales per square foot, footfall, average bill value, average selling price, and total sales.

That is where the machine stops being described and starts being measured.


What V2 Has Already Built

Before going deeper into the economics, it helps to see the business as it stands today.

The snapshot above carries the factual load. What matters here is what those facts imply.

V2 is no longer a small or scattered value-retail experiment. By 9M FY26, the company was operating 294 stores across 225+ cities and 25 states , with a retail footprint of about 31.93 lakh sq. ft. That is no longer proof-of-concept scale. It is large enough to begin testing repeatability.

And these are not tiny boxes. A typical new V2 store is about 10,000–11,000 sq. ft. , which tells you the company is not building a light-touch presence. It is building a meaningful family-shopping format with enough room to carry breadth in assortment and turn the store into a real destination, not just a narrow apparel outlet.

The format is also broader than a single-category fashion bet. In FY25, the product mix was 40% men’s wear, 27% ladies wear, 25% kids wear, and 8% lifestyle . That makes V2 closer to a family wardrobe platform than a single-line chain. It matters because family traffic usually deepens the basket, widens occasions, and improves repeat relevance.

Just as important, the business is becoming more controlled. The annual report and presentations frame V2’s operating advantage through an in-house design team, agile supply chain, warehousing and logistics, and a private-label-led architecture that gives the company more control over design, quality, replenishment, and value pricing. This is not just store addition. It is merchandise control.

That is really the shift to notice. V2 is no longer trying to prove that one value-fashion store can work. It is trying to prove that the format can travel — across cities, across clusters, and across a much wider operating base without losing its character. That is a very different stage of business. The question is no longer whether the concept exists. The question is whether the concept repeats.

And the way management wants to scale says a lot about how it thinks. This is not a scattershot rollout. V2 is deliberately using a cluster-led expansion strategy : roughly 60–70% of new stores are going into strong existing geographies , while the remaining 30–40% go into promising new markets. That matters because clusters do more than improve brand familiarity. They improve local learning, assortment accuracy, replenishment flexibility, inventory rebalancing, and execution control. In other words, V2 is not just adding stores. It is trying to make the network smarter as it grows.

There is a customer-cohort angle to this too. In stores older than two years, repeat customers now contribute about 68% of revenue , and purchase frequency has improved to roughly once every 4.25 months . That matters because it suggests V2 is not building loyalty through a formal rewards program or discount gimmick. It is building it through the product itself — assortment, price-value, fit, and the confidence that the visit will feel worth repeating.

The customer economics are also moving in the right direction. In Q3 FY26, average selling price rose to about ₹363 and average bill value to about ₹964 . That matters because it suggests the business is not only attracting traffic. It is also improving the quality of the basket. The customer appears willing to buy slightly better merchandise and leave with a stronger bill, which is usually a sign that the format is becoming more relevant, not merely more visible.

And the inventory cycle is improving too. In FY25, the company reported inventory turnover of 4.25x , up from 3.83x a year earlier. That matters because it suggests the platform is not just getting bigger. It is getting tighter. Inventory is being moved with better discipline, capital is being tied up for less time, and growth is beginning to look more like a system than a sprawl.

That is why this section matters. What V2 has already built is not just a larger retail footprint. It is the early shape of a repeatable value-fashion platform: meaningful store boxes, clustered where it is strong, supported by family-led category breadth, reinforced by customer return behaviour, and sharpened by improving basket quality and inventory turns.

What you see today is not just a growing chain of stores. You see a value-fashion platform with scale, family traffic, increasing merchandise control, and early signs that the machine is starting to repeat itself.


Who Built V2 — and How the Business Got Here

V2 Retail is not a first attempt.

For an investor, that is one of the most important sentences in this entire thesis.

The business was built by Ram Chandra Agarwal , one of the original architects of value retailing in India. But to understand the machine, you first have to understand the temperament of the builder.

Agarwal’s story does not begin in a corporate boardroom. It begins with a photocopy machine in Kolkata. Struck by polio at the age of four , and permanently reliant on crutches, his instinct was never to seek safety. He moved from that photocopy machine to selling soft drinks, and eventually opened a small garment shop in Kolkata’s Lal Bazaar . He then spent years on the shop floor, studying something no spreadsheet can teach properly: the psychology, the wallet, and the aspiration of the Indian middle class.

He didn’t learn retail from a spreadsheet. He learned it from the street.

The First Machine: The Seduction of Scale

By 2001, he moved to Delhi and launched Vishal Retail . The concept was brilliant. The scale was intoxicating. The company went public in 2007, became a household name, and by the time the story reached its peak, Vishal was operating over 170 stores across the country under Vishal Megamart, Vishal Retail and Vishal Fashion Mart. Three years before the collapse, the business had reportedly commanded a market valuation of about ₹2,200 crore .

That is the part people forget.

He had already built scale before the crisis broke the machine.

This was not an overnight success story. It was a serious retail network, built by a founder who had already shown he could dream big and execute at scale.

But scale can hide weakness when the cycle is kind.

The mistakes were the classic mistakes of a first empire builder.

Unchecked leverage.

Rapid store expansion was funded with too much debt.

Operational distraction.

Capital and attention drifted into doing too much inside the chain instead of keeping the machine tighter and lighter.

Management deficit.

The business scaled faster than its operating bandwidth. The founder’s ambition outran the institution around him.

When the cycle was kind, leverage amplified the rise.

When the cycle turned, it accelerated the fall.

Vishal Mega Mart Sells Out to private Equity

Then came the real shock.

As the cycle worsened, Vishal entered debt restructuring on about ₹730 crore of debt . By 2011, after the debt spiral and distress sale, the retail and wholesale businesses were sold to TPG Capital and the Shriram Group for just ₹70 crore — roughly 3% of peak value .

That was not a setback.

That was a total equity wipeout.

But this is where the story gets more interesting.

Agarwal did not vanish with that sale. He sold the Vishal brand and the operating businesses, but the listed company remained. That same entity was later renamed V2 Retail Limited .

That distinction matters.

Because V2 is not a completely unrelated fresh start.

It is the same listed shell, rebuilt after the old operating machine was sold away.

Version 2.0: The Architecture of Memory

Most promoters do not survive a collapse of that magnitude with ambition intact. They retreat.

Agarwal did not.

He started again with roughly ₹10–15 crore left. And when asked how he handled the psychological blow, he quoted the Bhagavad Gita : stay detached emotionally, but work with passion.

That line matters.

Because V2 is not just a new company.

It is a new architecture built by someone who already knows what overexpansion costs.

He named the business V2 Retail — literally, Version 2 .

But this was not merely a rebranding.

It was a structural reset.

Today’s V2 reads like a retailer shaped by memory and scar tissue. The language is less about empire and more about private labels, inventory freshness, working-capital discipline, cluster-led expansion, and cost control .

There is a people lesson inside this rebuild too. Retail is a human-heavy business . Stores do not run on strategy decks; they run on hiring, training, supervision, task discipline, and customer handling.

In a 200-store-plus retail chain, culture is simply the system by which the same standards travel.

There is also a generational layer to this rebuild. Alongside Ram Chandra Agarwal , the operating structure now includes Akash Agarwal , who serves as CEO and whole-time director. That gives the business an interesting mix: founder memory on one side, and a newer operating layer on the other.

So this section should not be read as founder mythology.

It is more useful than that.

It tells you that V2 is being run by people who have already seen both sides of retail:

the seduction of fast expansion,

and the punishment of losing financial control.

The first brand was sold because leverage met a crisis.

The second brand is being built as if that lesson still matters.

That is not proof of success.

But it is a much better starting point than innocence.


The Economics of a V2 Box

The table above carries the hard load. What matters here is what those numbers mean.

A typical V2 store is not a light experiment. It is a real retail box with real capital behind it. Management’s own framework suggests a new store is usually 10,000–11,000 sq. ft. , needs about ₹1.1 crore of capex , ₹1.3–1.4 crore of opening inventory , and therefore roughly ₹2.4–2.5 crore of total initial investment.

Before the first customer walks in, the capital is already at work.

That is why store economics matter so much.

A weak store is not just a weak store.

It is capital sitting in a room, waiting to earn its right to exist.

The key point is not that new stores start below mature stores. That is normal. The key point is whether they mature well.

New stores begin at roughly ₹720–800 PSF , while mature stores do about ₹1,200 PSF . Breakeven is around ₹500 PSF . So the real question is not whether a store survives.

It is whether it climbs.

That is why the sensitivity table matters so much.

At ₹500 PSF , the box is alive, but not attractive.

At ₹730 , it is positive, but still early.

At ₹1,000 , the economics begin to look meaningful.

At ₹1,200 , the store starts behaving like a genuinely productive asset.

That is the real store-level ladder.

And that is where retail shifts from narrative to economics.

A store opening is an event.

A store climbing this ladder is value creation.

The rest of the metrics matter for the same reason. PSF tells you whether the box is productive. ASP and ABV tell you whether the basket is improving. MRP mix tells you whether growth is being preserved with pricing discipline. And inventory turns tell you whether capital is circulating fast enough or getting trapped in stock.

Read together, the numbers say something simple:

a good V2 store is not just one that sells.

It is one that sells enough , fresh enough , full-price enough , and fast enough to justify the capital behind it.

That is the real economic test.

Because in retail, store count can make growth look bigger.

Store productivity is what makes growth valuable.


What Can Make This Machine Stronger — and What Can Break It

A retail machine does not become stronger because it opens more stores.

It becomes stronger when each new store proves that the model is repeatable.

For V2, the investor question is simple:

Is the company getting better while getting bigger?

That answer will not come only from revenue growth. Revenue can grow because more square feet are added. The real proof has to come from productivity, freshness, timing, data discipline, and cash conversion.

The Operating Scorecard: Is V2 Getting Better While Getting Bigger?

V2’s numbers show strong execution so far: revenue is growing fast, full-price sales remain high, PSF is still around the ₹1,000/month zone, and the store base has scaled sharply.

But the stress points are also visible.

Inventory days and working-capital days have moved up during expansion. That is why the next test is not just growth. It is whether growth stays fresh, productive, and cash-disciplined.

This is where fashion risk becomes central.

V2 is not DMart. Grocery has longer shelf life and more predictable repeat demand. Apparel does not. Fashion has a clock.

And in India, that clock is not only seasonal. It is also festival-led and occasion-led — Diwali, Eid, Dussehra, weddings, birthdays, and family functions. If the right product reaches late, the sale is often lost, not postponed.

That is why supply chain is not a back-end function for V2.

It is the operating spine.

The company has to read demand early, move inventory on time, replenish winners quickly, and cut mistakes before they become stale stock.

This is also where data analytics and cohort tracking matter:

what sold → where it sold → who bought it → how fast it moved → what should be repeated, reduced, or killed

That is the correction loop.

So the test is simple:

Growth is not proof. Fresh inventory, full-price selling, repeatable store productivity, on-time merchandise, and cash conversion are proof.

If these variables improve while the store base expands, the machine is getting stronger.

If they weaken, the rollout number will not protect the thesis.


Competitive landscape

The table above makes one thing obvious: V2 is not playing in a soft category.

This is not a market where being “good” is enough.

This is a market where one player has already set the benchmark on fashion-speed and scale, another has built a massive mass-retail machine, a third is a cleaner listed value-retail comp, and regional players still know their customer well enough to stay dangerous.

That is the field.

So the real question is not whether V2 belongs in the conversation.

It does.

The real question is what kind of position it can earn inside a market that already has serious operators with serious advantages.

Trent/Zudio has fashion velocity.

Vishal Mega Mart has mass scale.

V-Mart has category adjacency and a similar wallet.

Baazar Style has regional instinct.

V2’s pitch is different: it is trying to become a serious Tier II/III/IV value-fashion machine with better-than-expected box productivity, stronger private-label control, and a growing footprint in markets where organized fashion retail still has room to deepen.

So I am keeping this as a snapshot and saving the deeper teardown for a separate piece — one where I will properly compare Zudio, V-Mart, Vishal Mega Mart, Baazar Style, Max, Westside, Pantaloons, Yousta, Azorte and others across format, pricing architecture, store economics, inventory turns, private-label models, regional strengths, and what each retailer is really optimizing for .

That second article will be the full competitive map. This section is only the marker on the wall.


Valuation: Pricing the High-Velocity Machine

A scaling retailer like V2 cannot be valued through one headline multiple.

If you look only at P/E, you are looking in the rear-view mirror while the machine is still accelerating.

A more careful way to value V2 is to move in this order:

the box → the cash → the engine → the equity → the network

The Valuation Stack

A few things are easy to miss here.

First, growth is not value by itself. In retail, value is created only when new space earns well on capital. That is why store IRR comes first. The real question is not whether V2 can open more stores. It is whether the next store can become a good box.

Second, leased-retail cash flow needs a cleaner lens. Operating cash flow already adds back depreciation. Lease principal sits below OCF. So the practical shortcut is:

Operating Cash Flow – Lease Principal – Interest Paid

Do not subtract depreciation again. If anything, the missing adjustment is maintenance capex.

Third, EV / sq. ft. is useful only after productivity is understood. A square foot is not valuable because it exists. It is valuable because it earns. A mature store and a younger store should not be treated as the same asset just because both occupy floor space.

So the practical takeaway is simple:

Start with the box.

Check whether growth leaves cash.

Then price the engine.

Then price the equity.

Only then look at the network.

That sequence keeps the investor closer to the economics of the business, and farther from the comfort of a single flattering multiple.


Valuation View: Underwrite the Next 1–2 Years

For me, V2 is not a simple cheap-or-expensive call.

It is an execution-underwriting bet with a potentially longer runway .

The market is already giving V2 credit for growth. The stock is no longer priced like a broken or ignored retailer. It is being priced for store expansion, operating leverage, and earnings growth.

So the question is not whether V2 looks optically cheap on trailing earnings.

It does not.

The better question is:

Can V2 keep converting new square feet into profitable, mature, cash-generating stores?

That is why I would not anchor the thesis to one-year P/E.

I would anchor it to store-box economics .

The next 1–2 years are the underwriting window. This is where I need to see whether the store engine is behaving as expected: new stores remain productive, full-price sales stay strong, inventory stays fresh, working capital does not slip out of control, and growth starts leaving better post-lease cash.

If that proof comes through, V2 can move from a rollout story to a repeatability story .

That is where the holding period can extend to 3–5 years or more .

Valuation Scorecard

The important point is this:

V2’s valuation is not protected by obvious cheapness. It is protected by execution.

So my stance is not:

“V2 is cheap.”

My stance is:

Underwrite the next 1–2 years. Own for 3–5 years or longer only if the box keeps validating.

That is the discipline.

Because in retail, longevity is earned store by store.

If V2 keeps improving while getting bigger, the holding period should expand with the evidence.


Risk / Anti-Thesis: What Can Break the Thesis

No retail thesis is complete until you ask the harder question:

What if expansion works — but the box economics do not mature the way the market expects?

That is the real risk in V2.

At this stage, survival is not the question. V2 has already reached scale. The question now is whether the next leg of growth makes the business better , not just bigger .

The matrix above is the real checklist.

It says the same thing in a harder way: every strength in the story has a failure mode. Fast rollout can dilute fleet quality. Working-capital efficiency can weaken under expansion. Better scale economics can get masked by immature boxes. Private label can improve control, but it also internalizes more of the merchandise mistake. And a high-growth narrative can punish even small execution misses once valuation starts assuming maturity before the stores have actually matured.

So the anti-thesis is not that V2 is broken.

It is that the business may keep growing in footprint while the economics stop improving at the same speed.

That is how retail stories disappoint.

Not through collapse first — but through slower maturity, weaker cash conversion, softer productivity, and valuation that runs ahead of proof .

That is what needs to be watched here.

The real watchpoints

  • Are newer stores climbing out of the ₹730–740 PSF zone fast enough?
  • Is blended PSF recovering after rollout, or slowly resetting lower?
  • Are working-capital days normalizing, or staying heavy?

That is the real bear case.

Not fraud.

Not irrelevance.

Not immediate breakage.

Just a far more common retail outcome:

a business that scales faster in area than in maturity.


Conclusion: The Architecture of Affordable Aspiration

V2 is not interesting because it sells cheap clothes.

It is interesting because it may be building something much harder: a repeatable retail machine for customers who want to look better, shop with less friction, and stay within the budget.

That is the real story.

Not luxury.

Not brand mythology.

Not slogan-driven aspiration.

Just a sharper question:

Can organized value fashion become a trusted habit for the Indian middle-income family?

V2’s answer is operational, not poetic:

fresh enough merchandise, trusted enough quality, low enough prices, and disciplined enough execution to make the customer come back.

That is what the shopper sees.

What the investor should see is the harder layer beneath it:

That is the entire game.

Because retail does not become great when it gets bigger.

It becomes great when it gets better while getting bigger.

And that is the standard V2 now has to clear.

The easy part of the story may already be behind it. The market has noticed the turnaround. The stock has rerated. From here, the question is no longer whether V2 exists.

The question is whether the machine can keep compounding without losing shape.

That is where real retail stories separate.

Some chains expand and look important.

A few expand and become durable.

Very few expand and become inevitable.

V2 is not inevitable yet.

It is still on trial.

Because fashion retail carries a sharper risk than staple retail. A weak assortment does not merely slow sales. It creates old inventory, forces discounts, blocks shelf space, traps cash, and weakens the very freshness that brings the customer back.

So the thesis is not just store expansion.

It is taste at scale.

If the box keeps working, the cash keeps holding, the product remains fresh, and the younger fleet matures into the older fleet, this story can still travel much farther.

If not, retail will do what it always does:

it will punish weak economics long after the rollout looked impressive.

V2 is no longer a hidden story.

Now it has to become a proven one.


:memo:Investment Status & Thesis

Thesis Written On: May 20, 2026

Current Stance: Meaningful but controlled position, biased by holding.

Disclosure: I am currently invested in V2 Retail with an allocation of approximately 2–3% of my total equity portfolio.

For me, V2 is a dual bet on scale leverage and fashion velocity . The company has shown enough proof to deserve real capital, but not enough proof to be treated as inevitable. In retail, the difference between a compounder and a value trap often comes down to the quality of the next 100 stores opened.

The Decision Ledger

I may increase my position if: Newer stores move toward ~₹1,100–1,200 PSF , blended PSF stays around ~₹1,000+ , inventory days stay near or below the ~100–110 day zone, and full-price / MRP sales remain above 90% .

I may hold my position if: Blended PSF stays broadly in the ~₹900–1,000 zone, inventory days remain manageable in the ~110–125 day band, and full-price sales stay in the ~80–90% range without visible markdown stress.

I may reduce my position if: Revenue grows but blended PSF slips below ~₹900 , inventory days move above ~125–135 , or full-price sales fall below ~80% , suggesting rising markdown dependence and weaker freshness.

I may exit the thesis if: newer stores stay stuck near the ~₹730–740 PSF zone, blended PSF weakens structurally, inventory keeps aging, and markdown pressure becomes the main driver of sell-through rather than true demand.

In value fashion, PSF tells you whether the box is selling, inventory days tell you whether stock is moving, and full-price sales tell you whether the customer still wants it without being bribed.

Formal Disclaimer

I am not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment advisor . Nothing in this post is investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. This is my personal research and interpretation based on publicly available information, company filings, investor presentations, and management commentary.

Retail is a high-execution, high-risk business. Please do your own due diligence and consult a qualified advisor before making any investment decision.

Your capital. Your responsibility.


5 Likes

UdayChandak

Firstly, thank you for putting together and sharing this research.

What I appreciated most was that the thesis evolved from simply describing the business to defining a clear decision-making framework. The sections on V2 is still on trial, store economics, and the decision ledger were particularly useful because they focused on what actually matters for future returns rather than just celebrating past growth.

One question that I think sits at the heart of the investment case:

If V2 is now a store-maturation story rather than a store-opening story, do you have any data points, channel checks, or observations on the typical maturity curve of a store?

Specifically:

  1. How many quarters does it usually take for a new store to move from roughly ₹730–800 PSF levels toward mature-store productivity?
  2. Are there any early indicators that help identify which stores are likely to become ₹1,100–1,200 PSF stores and which ones won’t?

To me, this seems like the key variable that will determine whether today’s expansion ultimately translates into long-term value creation.

Would love to hear your thoughts whenever you get a chance.

Thank you once again.

Disclosure: Invested in V2 and waiting for the results (28 May) to further add or trim based on performance.

is Zepto, Blinkit, Instamart, Jiomart a competition for this? Jiomart is expanding delivery to villages and small towns as well.

Thank you — this is exactly the right variable to question.

The honest answer is that V2 does not yet publish a clean vintage-wise store cohort table, so we cannot prove the maturity curve with hard store-level data yet.

But management has given one useful internal benchmark. Newer stores are judged against older-store productivity, and the benchmark is that they should be within roughly 30% of older-store sales PSF.

The nuance is important: management has not said every older store is doing ₹1,200 PSF/month. The better reading is that mature / older-store productivity has touched that zone. At the same time, stores opened last year and this year are already above ₹720–730 PSF/month and EBITDA-positive from the first month.

So my answer to the first question is: I would not treat this as a 2–3 quarter journey. A new value-fashion store moving from the ₹730–800 PSF zone toward mature productivity is more likely an 8–12 quarter journey — roughly 2–3 years.

That also fits how organised value-fashion formats generally behave.

V-Mart’s store economics have historically been built around a roughly 2–3 year payback logic. Zudio’s model is also not about judging a store in one or two quarters; it depends on fast sell-through, repeat traffic, high freshness and strong store-level productivity. Baazar Style, being more regional, also shows why local catchment understanding matters — a store has to learn local taste, price points, family shopping behaviour and occasion demand before it can behave like a mature box.

So across V2, V-Mart, Zudio-type formats and Baazar Style, the pattern is similar:

A store opens with location promise.
Then it has to earn repeat behaviour.
Then it has to prove festival and wedding conversion.
Then it has to show inventory discipline and full-price sell-through.
Only after multiple seasons can we call it mature.

On the second question — the early indicators I would track are:

  1. PSF improvement without discounting.
  2. Full-price sales staying strong.
  3. Old inventory not piling up.
  4. Repeat family traffic increasing.
  5. Festival / wedding / local occasion conversion improving.
  6. Local assortment fit — colours, sizes, fabrics, price points.
  7. Working capital staying disciplined even as sales grow.

Year 1 proves location and breakeven.
Year 2–3 proves maturity.
Year 4–5 proves steady cash generation.
Year 5–7 is the make-or-break phase.

By year 5–7, the store cannot hide behind “new store ramp-up” anymore. Either it has become a local habit, or it starts exposing weakness in catchment, rent, assortment, freshness, competition or execution.

So the key question is not simply whether V2 can open stores.

The real question is whether these new stores can move from ₹730–800 PSF toward mature-store productivity over 8–12 quarters — and whether the early signs are visible before the full maturity numbers show up.

2 Likes

Thanks for sharing the framework, buddy, it’s really insightful.

Really enjoyed reading, and in my limited understanding, its interesting to track the shift from store opening story to store maturation story.

One thing that stood out to me from the management commentary was their apparent focus on sales productivity and inventory velocity over maximizing gross margins, which reminded me somewhat of Zudio’s approach. I also keep coming back to management’s comment that mature stores derive 68% revenue from repeat customers. To me, that feels like one of the strongest indicators of whether a store has become a local habit.

Have you found any way to track repeat customer behaviour or store age cohorts over time, given the lack of vintage wise disclosure?

Thank you once again for your insights.

1 Like

Very solid Q1 updates. While going into nitty gritty will bring out different takes but what’s heartening to see is breathtaking execution on a heavy base.

What’s also good to see that even V Mart has come up with decent update.

Disc: no reco & biased in V2 retail

be9a273b-3ce0-4be0-8115-707cbd14594a.pdf (247.0 KB)

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“Okay, that’s helpful. My second question is, Akash, looking from a naked eye and from the likes of investors, you seem to be a one man show. However, it’s the whole unseen team that is delivering such stellar results. My question is, if tomorrow, hypothetically, if you are not able to attend a concall, who in the organization would do so to answer? Would really love to know the people who know the in and out of the company and have a fair understanding and work closely with you? Yes, that’s my second question.”

This question in Q4 ‘26 conference call is one of the two critical questions holding up V2 Retail’s stock. If you are an institution, you want to understand the management depth. Companies like Trent get a pass. They are part of Tata group. In a small company like V2 with the past of having blown up during Vishal Retail days, hyper growth makes people nervous.

There are two Value Retail COOs whose resignation was communicated to exchange today. My guess is the one who worked with Walmart and Vishal. He gets elevation to CEO position and V2 gets a battle hardened veteran to steady the massive expansion ahead of them. Salary may be an issue given their limited finances. Perhaps they will go for performance linked stocks.

The second concern on funding the growth looks less problematic with every 50% plus quarter. While their internal accruals can fund 20-25% retail area expansion, they are well set for fy27 with QIP money. Next year, they may go for debt. 5-600 Crores should be able to fund 200 odd stores to cover the gap between 20-25% internal and 50-55% target. After hitting 800 odd, 200 plus stores per year should be manageable internally.

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It appears Manshu Tandon will join back. RCA mentioned this in his interaction at the Gujarat Chamber of Commerce.

When questioned in training the next tier, he mentioned that his CEO resigned last year after his ESOPs worth 70-80 Cr matured. He is coming back (Ab Woh Wapas aa raha hai), said RCA. Then we might see him in annual meet on 31st July.

If this is true, why is it being first communicated at some random public talk and not through proper disclosure to exchanges?

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Valid point. Discretion is the better partnof valour. Nobody ever told RCA about that precept! These claims of 20000 stores in US, creating a political party etc. may be public statements of a happy go lucky person but they do spook serious investors. I suspect they will continue to shrink in valuations despite stellar numbers because of this overhang. No clear resolution is in sight on the management question or even the unrestrained growth aspirations.

V2 Retail -

Q1 FY 27 results and concall highlights -

Revenues - 997 vs 632 cr, up 58 pc

Gross profits - 285 vs 186 cr, up 53 pc ( GMs @ 28.6 vs 29.5 pc )

EBITDA - 139 vs 87 cr, up 60 pc ( margins @ 14 vs 13.8 pc )

PAT - 42 vs 25 cr, up 70 pc

Opened 57 stores in Q1, taking the total store count to 381 ( also closed 1 store in Q1 )

SSSG @ 7.5 pc

Volume growth @ 56 pc

Avg Bill Value @ Rs 941 vs Rs 901 in Q1 LY

Avg Selling price @ 308 vs 303 in Q1 LY

MRP sales @ 90 pc vs 92 pc in Q1 LY

NWC days @ 74 days - compared to 81 days @ the end of Q4 FY 26

Pre Ind AS -

EBITDA @ 80 vs 52 cr, up 51 pc

Margins @ 8 vs 8.2 pc

PAT @ 50 vs 30 cr

Notes from previous concalls -

On an avg, the new stores are clocking Rs 800 / sq ft / month sales right from the first month - a very very encouraging sign ( IMHO ). An avg store breaks even @ sales value of Rs 500 / sq ft / month

In case the per sq ft sales for new stores starts tapering off / SSSG at old stores shows a slowdown - company would slow down their rapid expansion spree and re-calibrate their growth stratergy

Opened 136 new stores in FY 26. No of stores as on 31 Mar 25 were @ 189. On 31 Mar 26, no of stores were @ 325

Avg store rentals are @ Rs 50 psf

Company’s older stores are clocking PSF / month sales of Rs 1200 and thereabouts ( stores opened on or before Mar 24 )

Avg running cost / store is around 190 psf / month. Broad break up - rent @ Rs 50 psf, employee cost @ Rs 40 psf, corporate overheads @ Rs 50 psf, power + fuel @ Rs 20 psf, marketing and advertisements @ Rs 30 psf

Since the expansion tgts for next 2 yrs are aggressive, don’t expect a margin improvement. Margin improvements shall start only when they go slow on expansion ( imo - that should be a post 2030 kind of story )

Company categories all stores opened for > 24 months as mature stores. SSSG is reported on these store’s sales

Aprox 15 pc of every season’s inventory is generally left unsold. The same is sold in the next season. They don’t dispose it off

It generally takes 3-4 yrs for a new store to cross psf sales of > Rs 1100 ( super profitable territory ). These stores clock aprox 12 pc EBITDA margins vs 5-6 pc clocked by newer stores

As company’s product assortment and prices are becoming more attractive and competitive + their brand name is gaining traction - their store closure rates are falling dramatically. This is a key positive

Notes from Q1 concall -

Organised retail continues to gain mkt share @ a rapid pace. Do have a lot of headroom to grow

Analytics led merchandise assortment, supply chain responsiveness, use of technology and operational efficiency are absolutely non-negotiable and are key to their rapidly growing business model

As on the date of concall, their store count has crossed 400

Seeing inflationary pressures in RM. Have sufficient inventories @ present. Shall pass on aprox 4-5 pc price hikes to consumers wef Q3

On track to open 170-200 stores in FY 27

They were using their surplus cash to pre pay their vendors. Now that they ve an aggressive expansion plan lined up for FY 27 ( and beyond ) - they won’t resort to that. This should free up 100-150 cr

Aim to keep growing @ 50 pc CAGR for next 2-3 yrs

They believe demand trends in value fashion wear is quite inelastic

Aim to achieve 29-30 pc GMs for full FY 27

Stores with > 24 months post opening are clocking psf sales of > Rs 1000 / month

New store openings continue to clock > Rs 700 psf / month in sales

Seeing a 10-12 pc inflation in new store opening costs

In last 2 yrs, have opened aprox 250 stores. Except 10-12 of them all are doing well. These 10-12 stores are clocking < Rs 600 psf / month in sales. Working hard at turning them around

Seeing a surge in repeat customers ( over last 2 yrs ) from 40 pc to 55 pc customers making repeat purchases with V2 retail within 1 yr of initial purchase. This is an encouraging sign

Their best performing stores continue to be in Tier 2,3 citiesBulk of company’s stores are standalone stores with sizes - aprox 10-12k sq ft. Lease periods are typically for 9 yrs with 12-15 pc hikes every 3 yrs

Disc: holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation, posted only for educational purposes

3 Likes

Q2 update is a big setback. Their obstinacy in not improving the management capacity, continuous expansion far in excess of what internal free cash would support and ignoring signals like inventory pile up, have finally delivered the reckoning. Monday could be a disaster for the stock.

Market may respond negatively, what do I know.

But the issue is that the real way to measure growth of this (and many other businesses) is to see:
Sales T12M / sales T24-12M ≈ 3,631 / 2,431 ≈ 1.49 (assumeing 28% annualised quarterly growth they have reported)

which comes to about 49% growth.

Quarterly growth compared to the same quarter previous year misses this - and rolling 12M is the right measure.

Why many other businesses is because many many businesses have seasonality - due to festive season, weather patterns, customer’s internal processes - which don’t follow strict quarterly patterns.

1 Like