United food brands ( Barbeque nation ) Ltd

Investors and analysts are openly questioning if the core buffet model is broken, management seems more focused on polishing the silverware than fixing the kitchen.

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Notes from Q3 FY26 Concall

  1. As a value leader, the endeavour of BBQ India is drive volumes / footfalls, which through operating leverage will translate into higher margins.

  2. The growth in SSSG is entirely driven by volume growth, pricing is something that business has to accept. Cost controls is something that business can work on, but pricing is driven by the market. Last quarter saw 25% increase in dining walkin’s YoY

  3. The levers of business include Pricing, Volume Growth (Footfalls) and Cost Control.

  4. Marketing spends help in driving volumes, and is budgeted to 3% of revenues.

  5. Net Debt as of Q3 FY26 is 80 Cr, the intent is not to cross 100 Cr at Company level, however, it may move more than 100 Cr in short run due to more restaurent openings in next couple of quarters.

  6. Acquiring new customers and making them a repeat customers , drives business in long term.

  7. Historically South India has been slow performing market, but that’s not the case anymore.

  8. SSSG growth may be driven by promotional campaigns, but even low budget buffets offered as promotional campaign helps building topline and possible repeat customer , which supports operating leverage.

This is a industry of graveyards with huge moving parts, and difficult to ascertain if anybody will win. BBQ performance of scaling up this difficult business pre covid, did inspire confidence, but last few years had been extremely challenging.for the company.

Disclosure - Hold Tracking Position

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Hey, I am new to this comany.

SSSG has been improving over the last two quarters. Is something changing within their business?

Need to keep checking for a couple of more quarters I think. The base was low, and hence the SSSG % might seem high. ADS still in the 60,000’s range which was the case in FY24 also as far as I remember. FY25 some quarters it dropped to 55,000 or something.

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AR/O trend: this year’s SSSG is largely making up for last year’s weak performance. It’s too early to conclude that a turnaround is underway, but the market seems to have already delivered its verdict.

Now, the risk-reward is unattractive, irrespective of whether the turnaround plays out or not.

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SSSG GROWTH OF 28.7% BY UFBL

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